2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

I disagree, Andrew, this is still ripe for the GCB thread, where we can discuss both topline and issue-based #s

[KingSweden]

I see what you did there

[KingSweden]

I see what you did there

I am not doing anything here. I am legitimately afraid. It would be a disaster if Republicans lose their majority in 2018. Mitch Mcconnell and Paul Ryan have been fantastic leaders that have gotten us so far in so little time.

Uh huh ok

[KingSweden]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

But if we did that we’d be denied pissing matches between PittsburghSteel and Andrew

[KingSweden]

This is adjacent to Limo's CNN poll thread.  Why haven't they mutually annihilated each other like matter and antimatter?

Eh I like DTC, I wouldn’t want that to happen

[KingSweden]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

[KingSweden]

In the Morning Consult poll, 36% of Americans opposed pulling out of the Iran Deal while 26% supported it.

As a general rule of thumb, if neither side obtains 40% in a poll, then there are too many undecideds for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions from it.

This.

As for the PPP thread, while I agree with the thrust of it, I don’t believe it’s an either/or proposition. We can use special election results and polls, along with a variety of other data, to color our impressions of this fall.

Lol you always have to poo on it.

What can I say I’m trying to be aggressively reasonable haha

I’ve been making that argument more against the hot-takers on here who want to use any single poll to confirm their priors, but I’m glad PPP and Nate Silver have formulated a version of it more eloquent than my own

[KingSweden]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

[KingSweden]

PPP spent the week before the 2016 election reassuring Dems anxious about the Comey letter that a Clinton victory was coming, seen in those tweets. I don't trust any attempt by them to say "everything's fine" because of that (though I do think there is no reason to panic over one poll).

Why are people obsessed that I said b*tch? Have they ever considered that I talk like that in real life?

You think there’s no reason to panic over one poll yet created a thread for a CNN poll so you could do your usual trolly song and dance

Somehow I did a "trolly song and dance" without actually trolling? Cause all I did was post a significant poll, just like PittsburghSteel did with this thread a week ago: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=291035.0
That thread was arguably more inexcusable, considering Morning Consult is a pretty unreliable weekly tracking poll while CNN is far more high quality. However, I won't make threads for individual polls in the future.

I’d have put that poll you linked to in the megathread as well.

The *only* case in which I’d separate out is A) individual race polls and B) Senate approval ratings, even the sketchy ones MC does

[KingSweden]

Wow -->
Dems in big trouble, if true. (it's GOP internal polling so probably not entirely accurate)
https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/994574354032877568

Not entirely accurate is putting it mildly.  That entire article was a Republican fundraiser/activist pushing an absurdly pro-Republican narrative about the midterms.  Useless.

CA-21 and NY-24 are also not on my list of top pickups, no matter what the PVI says

[KingSweden]

I don't think the generic ballot will go down from here instantly, but I do think it'll drop like a rock in October once premium information comes out. GCB will remain roughly the same until October imo.

I agree.

Also - did we ever figure out where Morris is getting his numbers from?

[KingSweden]

These headlines are doozies...

Nate Silver is probably laughing his ass off

https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/09/opinions/gop-wins-against-democrats-blue-wave-stewart-opinion/index.html

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/9/inside-the-beltway-a-red-wave-threatens-the-blue-w/

https://www.westernjournal.com/ct/blue-wave-becomes-blue-puddle/

I'm totally ok with this. The more "red wave is imminent stories" the less motivated Trump supporters are to vote. Let them think everything is fine and the GOP is gonna gain 50 seats.

I’m skeptical “headlines” keep people home but there’s a fair argument to be made it happened in 2016, so idk

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/994975779774783488

Any indication of which polling firm they used, for database purposes? I wasn’t aware Kaiser did this kind of thing in-house, but who knows

[KingSweden]

What is Kaiser defining as competitive congressional races? Impossible to make any judgements without the list of seats.

Good question. For now I’d defer to Morris’s description of average Tossup seat being R+5 (probably a bit high IMO but not outside of reason)

[KingSweden]

SSRS just did the CBS and CNN polls, I believe.

[KingSweden]

I take issue with the sample size. 500/24 is 21. So they basically polled 21 people per congressional district? 500 people for a generic ballot number is fine but 500 people to accurately poll 24 districts is not enough in my opinion. Way too much margin for error for such a small sample size.

Are you expressing skepticism towards the Generic topline or the competitive district number?

[KingSweden]

They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/

Its best to just ignore it.

Especially since it’s fricking RT

[KingSweden]

They're still climaxing over it:

https://www.rt.com/usa/426517-trump-war-republicans-democrats-poll/

Its best to just ignore it.

Especially since it’s fricking RT

Oh, I know I'm supposed to ignore it. It's fun to make fun of the MSM's obsession over small things.

Russia Today is not the MSM

[KingSweden]

What's up with Ipsos poll? Are they just not pushing undecideds?

They must have done something funky to the model

[KingSweden]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

[KingSweden]

PPP GCB - 50-39 in favor of Dems

Lots of other good q’s in here. Mitch McConnell has a 12% approval rating nationally, lol.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP_Release_National_32718.pdf

That's from late March, dude.

Just spotted that, came to delete.

Damn you both. Got me excited.

Anyways, PPP has stated that their internals have shown a consisten ten point lead for the Dems since the GOP’s healthcare debacle.

Sorry! Saw it on DKE and came here with the update, then realized it was old. Had to delete it.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/leahaskarinam/status/996071614763732995

If he’s leading his own internal by four, then he’s probably just about tied with Ann Kirkpatrick

[KingSweden]

I’m not going to dig too deeply into the cfosstabs of a poll as jumpy as YouGov. +6 in a week? Who knows what it’ll be next week.

[KingSweden]

I’m not going to dig too deeply into the cfosstabs of a poll as jumpy as YouGov. +6 in a week? Who knows what it’ll be next week.

Or in 26 weeks.

Yes, indeed.

[KingSweden]

At the same time that Trumps approval has improved by about 4 points, the GCB has stayed relatively flat. 538 has seen the GOP gain about a point while HuffPost Pollster has actually seen the Dems gain about a point. It's hard to compare to RCP as they only use the 5 most recent polls and not the totality of all recent polls like 538 and Pollster does.

I’d be curious how much of this is GOPers who have come home to the President, but who detest Congress (always remember how low Mitch and Paul’s ratings are).