New PA Maps In Effect

[KingSweden]

There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

I have not seen this anywhere on Twitter or on DKE

[KingSweden]

There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

I have not seen this anywhere on Twitter or on DKE

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/scotus-denies-gop-lawmakers-attempt-to-delay-drawing-new-congressional-map-20180205.html

https://twitter.com/normative/status/960683507587670016




Scary. FWIW, it would take practically every Republican Senator to vote to remove them, and I'm not yet convinced they can make that happen. Impeaching judges for ruling against a brazenly gerrymandered map is a big f'ing deal.

Reading between the lines it sounds like this is some dude blasting this out.

That said, I do wish the PASCT would release the opinion.

[KingSweden]

What do you think is the most likely outcome of this redistricting situation?

It's looking really bad for the Democrats. If this continues, they'll most likely also fail to gain the House in 9 months

This is the funniest goddamn thing I’ve read on Atlas in ages.

[KingSweden]

What is especially curious is that there is essentially no intersection between this opinion and the Gill v. Whitford case.

The PA Court opinion holds that congressional districts are unconstitutional under a provision of the state constitution that has no equivalent in the US constitution.  Their reasoning is almost entirely on the basis that they are non-compact (as judged by both geometric measures or splitting of existing subdivisions).  They put very little weight on the resulting partisan split of the delegation nor any reliance on constitutional provisions that have a federal equivalent, and they considered no evidence about the partisan motivation of the gerrymander.

The Whitford plaintiffs argue that state assembly districts are unconstitutional under several provisions of the federal constitutions (which have equivalents in the PA constitution, but are ignored by the PA court).  Their argument is based entirely on the claim that the partisan split of the delegation is biased, combined with qualitative evidence of partisan motivation.  Compactness is not at issue at all; indeed the plaintiffs acknowledge that the existing districts are reasonably compact.

Yet Alito rejected the stay without even referring it to the full court. That is what makes me think there is something in the PA ruling that lines up with the direction SCOTUS is taking in Whitford.

We know for a fact it was not referred to the Court?

[KingSweden]

I like this new map. It’s clean and contains clear communities of interest. My only quibble would be that 9th that seems like a hodgepodge of leftover districts. Otherwise a good map, a standard for the rest of the nation.

[KingSweden]

I'm happy with the map but I'm sad for Jess King.

Same. Hope Greg Edwards wins the primary for PA-07 (Formerly PA-15) now.

Need to hope he becomes the anti-Morganelli candidate, honestly.

[KingSweden]

Ryan Costello just jumped the sharked:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Statements like that will hurt him regardless of the district he has to run in.

What a bunch of sore loser hacks. Rig the maps, and if you can’t rig the maps, get rid of the judges.

Or you could, you know, run on an agenda people support. Fancy that!

[KingSweden]

FiveThirtyEight's take

This article perfectly sums up what I said earlier -

The new PA map is NOT a Democratic gerrymander....it's just a plain, fair map.

People saying it's a dem gerrymander are going by the point of view that a 13R-5D delegation is "normal" and anything more beneficial must be a democratic gerrymander.   It isn't!   The 13R - 5D was the Republican gerrymander they were spoiled with this whole time.

Not to pile on my own party, but hell, I am passionately anti gerrymandering, in the Pennsylvania GOP deserves all the criticism it gets on this front. It's also worth adding that this 13 to 5 split came from repeated approximate 50 50 splits in the actual votes for the state's Congressional Delegation.

Anyone who wishes to try arguing that Republican gerrymandering is somehow "natural" do too concentrated Democratic strength in relatively compact urban areas need only look at map drawing abortions like the prior p a 7 and pa17 among others to see there is an EXTREMELY concerted and decidedly unnatural manipulation of District Lines to get that result.

Republicans brought this on themselves, undoubtably. That said, democrats are packed into Philly by virtue of geography. That's just a fact. Republicans could have easily drawn a 11-7 (or even 12-6) map with compact borders and few county splits (assuming that Fitzpatrick and Dent would win the roughly even PVI Bucks and Lehigh Valley based districts). Instead, they got greedy and drew monstrosities like PA-7, which is why it got thrown out.

I think Ohio (pro R) and Maryland (pro D) are the two most gerrymandered states left now. Any chances of those maps being thrown out?

SCOTUS took Maryland as a federal case that is presumed to be tied up with Whitford. Good chance that travesty gets tossed, IMO, and good riddance

[KingSweden]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

[KingSweden]

Fwiw the PA Dem lawyer and resident expert on the state on DKE thinks this goes nowhere

I'm not an avid watcher of PA politics, but they do not really seem known for this kind of stuff. If this was about North Carolina, I'd believe it in an instant, but the PAGOP is not usually this aggressive. Further, impeachment of 4 or 5 Democratic justices, aka basically the entire bench, that is a dramatically corrupt thing to do in response to the court overturning a blatant gerrymander. I'm not convinced they can get every single Republican Senator to sign on to it.

If you want a situation where chances of impeachment skyrocket, I'd wait until a lawsuit is filed against the legislative maps. After all, this new Congressional map isn't threatening any state lawmaker's job

Indeed, some Senators who might not be vulnerable could be targeted for such a corrupt move

[KingSweden]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He’s quite Trumpy

[KingSweden]

Especially under the new lines, we can assuredly do better than John Morganelli. I don’t know enough about Greg Edwards to say if he’s that guy, but maybe he is.

[KingSweden]

I don’t know anything about Edwards, but as much as I dislike Morganelli, he’s pretty much a lock in the primary and the GE under these lines unless someone really strong gets in the Democratic primary and a bunch of the non-Morganelli folks drop out.  I can’t really think of such a candidate atm, so we’re probably stuck with Morganelli.  On the bright side he’s probably gonna make this an easy pickup, so there’s that

As someone unfamiliar with this person - what did he do (or not do)?

He's a perennial statewide candidate who campaigned for Pat Toomey in 2016 after losing the primary for Attorney General. He's also apparently quite a fan of alt-right Gamergate garbage Ian Miles Cheong.

He’s also insanely popular in Northampton County.

Yeah, so the addition of the rest of Northampton County to the district (obviously) bolsters his chances.

Greg Edwards is a charismatic progressive pastor - Think William Barber but a bit younger and more dynamic. He's currently raised twice the amount Morganelli has (though I expect the gap to close considerably) and reportedly - meaning: anecdotally - has a pretty sophisticated ground game.

Sounds like an interesting candidate!

[KingSweden]

Funny: the GOP stay application is apparently so sloppy that it cites Nate Cohn as "Note Cohen".  https://twitter.com/adambonin/status/966493150763274240

Bahahaha!

[KingSweden]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

[KingSweden]

Somebody had the party registration numbers for the new districts.  Could we see those again please?

Party registration by district:



Source

Imagine some of the Dem numbers here are inflated by old Demosaurs

Correct, but it's the main reason Lamb has a chance in the upcoming special election. Also, look how relatively weak Democrats are in Philadelphia suburban districts that Clinton won big.

Yup! That’s how realignments are

[KingSweden]

Especially under the new lines, we can assuredly do better than John Morganelli. I don’t know enough about Greg Edwards to say if he’s that guy, but maybe he is.

Keep in mind that most of the PA Democrats that had been elected in places out west or in the NE had very conservative positions on immigration.

Don't be surprised if this fair map, produces a lot of "conserva-dems" in places like the Lehigh Valley or eventually in the Beaver+Allegheny seat.

That’s true. Fair point.

[KingSweden]

The 3-judge panel denied Republican request to immediately block the new map and bring back the old one.

Something something world’s tiniest violin

[KingSweden]

Have to imagine similar cases start popping up in other states, too.

[KingSweden]

Lol

https://www.twitter.com/jjabbott/status/976146950973214720

Who is "House Republicans"? Is it just a bunch of loons, or do they have leadership backing?

Define leadership backing. Nobody in leadership is a co-sponsor, and Turzai and Reed waved off questions about this with “We can’t comment on bills that haven’t been filed.”

[KingSweden]

Lol

https://www.twitter.com/jjabbott/status/976146950973214720

Who is "House Republicans"? Is it just a bunch of loons, or do they have leadership backing?

Define leadership backing. Nobody in leadership is a co-sponsor, and Turzai and Reed waved off questions about this with “We can’t comment on bills that haven’t been filed.”

This clearly means it doesn't have backing.

Granted those comments are from a month ago, not today.

[KingSweden]

Not to derail, but anyone have a read/take on the primary in the PA-05? Lefty friends in the area have been talking up Rich Lazer to me.

On the contrary, this post is the opposite of a derail...