2018 Senate Rankings

[KingSweden]

MT, I'd slide PA and FL to Lean D and ND to lean R. Otherwise I agree

[KingSweden]

Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, WA (13)
Likely D: PA, VA, WI (3)
Lean D: FL, MT, ND, OH, WV (5)
Tilt D: IN (1)

Safe R: AL, MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY (7)
Likely R: (0)
Lean R: AZ, NV (2)
Tilt R: (0)

Safe I: VT (1)
Likely I: ME (1)
Lean I: (0)
Tilt I: (0)

Tossup: MO (1)

Good ratings. I'd put NV at Tilt R but otherwise agree.

[KingSweden]

I’m still not comfortable shifting MO and IN out of Tossup, but everything else I agree with.

[KingSweden]

Lean D: FL, MT, WV, NV (+1), AZ (+2)
Tossup: IN, MO, ND
Lean R: TN

All others I don’t see being competitive in the end

[KingSweden]

The arrows are a very nice visualization.

Indeed. I really like them.

[KingSweden]

The augurs have declared that Grandma was pooped on, therefore: blue wave confirmed.

Hey it’s no worse than King Lear’s “predictions”

[KingSweden]

I doubt that this is a King Lear sock.

[KingSweden]

Same spelling patterns, coloring patterns, and capitalizing patterns, but okay guys! Many of you all still think Limo is a Democrat, but that’s neither here nor there

I can't wait until King Lear comes back as a republican who is a total D hack in predictions. King Lear thinks he can hide from us LOL

Also people over at RRH even are insulting Lear for being daft

He managed to get himself banned in one day at DKE

[KingSweden]

Was this year (or 2012?) the last chance for Republicans to defeat Tester and Heitkamp? Unlike any of the other red state Dems, I have a hard time believing that they could lose in 2024/2030/etc. if they manage to win this year (which they will). Heitkamp is way too popular/strong to lose in such an incumbent-friendly state, and the GOP bench in MT is fairly weak and not likely to get any stronger.

In your view, is growth in Bozeman and Missoula helping MT trend Democratic?

[KingSweden]

Why are your moving Florida out of Lean?

[KingSweden]

Why are your moving Florida out of Lean?

Nelson is a popular, moderate incumbent while Scott is an unpopular governor who never won a majority of votes. Best case scenario for Scott, he loses by ~3 points.

Seems a bit bullish. Lean is the most prudent rating considering how much money Scott has

[KingSweden]

Lol Limo

Anyways I’m not making any predictions on WV and IN until after the primary. Especially in the former, where it could be anywhere from Likely D to Tossup depending on who Manchin draws

[KingSweden]

Here's my prediction for now. I'm still uncertain about the status of many of these races.

Safe D/I: WA, CA, NM, MN, HI, CT, RI, VA, MD, DE, NY, MA, VT, ME

Likely D: PA, NJ

Lean D: MT, MN-Special, MI, OH

Tilt D: NV, AZ, FL, WI, IN

Tossup: WV, ND

Tilt R: MO, TN

Lean R: TX

Likely R: MS-Special

Safe R: MS, NE, WY, UT

I disagree about IN being safer than MO, otherwise I’m right around here too

[KingSweden]

With primaries done, I’m keeping WV at Lean D and IN at Tossup. Bold, I know.

[KingSweden]

My new 5/9 ratings.

Everything not named is Safe.

Likely R: NE, MS-S, TX

Lean R: None

Tossup: TN, ND, NV, AZ, MO, IN

Lean D: WV, FL, MT

Likely D: OH, PA, WI, VA

[KingSweden]

Another one:

Changes:
Nebraska: Likely R->Safe R
West Virginia: Lean D->Likely D (looks like Blankensh**t might win the primary)

Update:

Changes:
West Virginia: Likely D->Lean D (with Blankensh**t gone, Manchin will now have a tougher fight)

Changes:
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
North Dakota: Lean D->Likely D

This seems way too bullish on Dems in states that red.

[KingSweden]

Changes:
Montana: Lean D->Likely D
North Dakota: Lean D->Likely D

This seems way too bullish on Dems in states that red.

MT and the Dakotas are way more D-friendly at the statewide/senatorial level, though. You could definitely make the case for Likely D: Dem wave year, strong incumbents, weak GOP field of candidates, the importance of retail politics, etc.

I think they’re (slightly) D favored, but it’s way too early to take them out of Lean

[KingSweden]

Changes:
Tennessee: Tossup->Lean D

You forgot a VT rating, not that it matters

[KingSweden]

Iowa is minnesota special
Alabama is mississippi special

west virginia is safe r cuz blankenship wasn't nominated
california is likely d cuz of top-two lockout

Your map sucks

[KingSweden]

Trump has created a major self inflicted wound for Republicans with his new tariffs.

Because of this, a total of 9 races shift to the left.

Likely D to Safe   D: IN, MO, MT, NV
Lean   D to Likely D: WV, ND
Lean   R to Lean   D: TN
Likely R to Lean   R: TX
Safe   R to Likely R: NE

This is totally jumping the gun.

[KingSweden]

This is still a bit bullish on Dems but much more defensible than Solid’s nonsense

[KingSweden]

I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Bredesen wins while both Heitkamp and Claire Mac lose.

[KingSweden]

Controversial, but Heitkamp is slightly safer than Tester IMO, and is much more likely to be a (near) lifer.

This is more or less my rating.

[KingSweden]

At least you wrote detailed analysis

[KingSweden]

Pretty fair ratings, GM