Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

McSally reelected.

[KingSweden]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

McSally is reelected here, Ann Kirkpatrick is reelected too.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Washington

Presidential: Clinton blows out Cruz in the Evergreen state, winning 59% of the vote - a modern record for a Democrat in the state, the most won there since 1964. Cruz is cited as being a particularly awful fit for the state, with even nominally GOP suburbs in the Seattle and Portland areas swinging hard against him. Cruz only manages 38% of the vote.

WA Governor: The GOP gets a top-tier recruit in this race in U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert. However, incumbent Jay Inslee ties Reichert to the unpopular GOP Congress and the unpopular Cruz, saying, "Dave Reichert plans to bring his radical Ted Cruz conservatism to Washington." Despite Reichert's efforts to portray himself as a moderate, Inslee lists the policy agenda of the GOP-led Senate, telling Seattle-area voters, "Don't give Ted Cruz a footsoldier in the Governor's mansion" and "Don't let the rural conservatives tell King County what it can and can't do." It is one of the most negative gubernatorial races in the country. Inslee winds up winning anyhow, 54-45.

WA Row Officers: Scandal-plagued Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen, a 20-year incumbent, retires and is replaced by Senate Minority Leader Sharon Nelson, who defeats GOP State Rep. Jay Rodne. Attorney General Bob Ferguson cruises to reelection over King County Prosecutor Dan Satterberg, who was only reluctantly recruited into running. SoS Kim Wyman, the only Republican statewide officeholder, easily wins reelection over an accountant. Mike Kreidler and Troy Kelley are easily reelected as State Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor, respectively.

Republicans do score two pickups in statewide offices, however. Jim McIntire retires as State Treasurer to take a position at a Seattle think-tank. State Senator Steve Litzow, facing a tough reelection campaign, instead jumps into the Treasurer race and defeats State Senator Dave Frockt to pick up the office. Peter J. Goldmark announces his retirement as Commissioner of Public Lands and is replaced by former GOP State Senator John Smith from Northport, who defeats a Weyerhauser executive for the spot. Republicans now control 3 partisan statewide offices compared to four for the Democrats.

WA Senator: Unlike 2004 and 2010, the GOP is unable to find/persuade anyone to take on the quixotic task of trying to take down the powerful Patty Murray. The only Republican who steps forward to take on the task is State Senator Doug Ericksen, not up for reelection until 2018 and thus not at risk of losing his seat. The very conservative Ericksen, hailing from Whatcom County and not the Seattle area, fails to attract much support from state or national GOP groups more focused on protecting vulnerable incumbents and runs a low-wattage, gaffe-filled campaign. Murray crushes Ericksen 62-38 in the general, taking two Eastern WA counties and losing only Lewis County on the west side of the Cascades.

WA-1: Highly-regarded State Senator Andy Hill challenges Suzan DelBene. Thought to be a top-tier race with Hill in the race, DelBene defeats him by ten points in the primary and then wins 56-44 in the general to win a third full term.

WA-3: Jamie Herrera Beutler finally attracts the A-list challenger Democrats have been waiting for when Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt jumps into the race to challenge her. Though Herrera Beutler is a strong candidate in her district, the top-ticket races help carry Leavitt over the line in the general and he wins the R-leaning district 51-49. D+1.

WA-8: With an open seat, there is a wide-open race to replace six-term Rep. Reichert. Three Republicans, Rep. Chad Magendanz and former State Senator and Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidate Dino Rossi, enter the race from the West side while Rep. Brad Hawkins enters from Wenatchee. Democrats nominate only State Senator Mark Mullet, who gives up his Senate seat to make the run. Mullet and Hawkins, considered the weakest of the three, advance to the general election where Mullet wins 52-48, the first Democrat to ever represent the 8th District and the first Democrat to represent a district with counties east of the cascades since the early 1990s. D+1.

All other House incumbents are easily reelected.

WA Legislature: Democrats hold Mullet's empty seat and win three additional Senate seats to win back the Senate, now holding a 27-22 advantage as Tim Sheldon returns to the Democratic caucus, now declaring his party registration as independent. Democrats win eight seats in the House, all of them in the Puget Sound region, to take a 59-39 advantage. The Legislature is once again under full Democratic control.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 283
Cruz/Portman: 189

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

California

Presidential: Clinton scores the highest margin of victory in California for a Democrat in history, winning 63% of the vote over Cruz, who takes 35%, the lowest total for a Republican since the three-way 1992 election. The blowout cements California as the backbone of the Democratic coalition.

CA Senate: Kamala Harris narrowly outperforms Clinton, winning 65-35 over US Rep. David Valadao. Harris runs to become the "next Liz Warren" and slams Valadao constantly, with her opponent trying desperately to paint himself as an inoffensive moderate consensus-builder. Despite concerns among CA Dems that Harris' campaign is too combative and left-wing, Valadao's underfunded, unexciting campaign fails to inspire the conservatives who form his base or attract the moderates he needs to pick up. Easy D hold.

CA-7: Ami Bera faces Doug Ose in a rematch of their 2014 match, with both advancing to the top two. Bera wins by an even wider margin than the last time, taking 55% of the vote.

CA-10: State Senator Cathleen Gagliani, whose Senate district covers much of the 10th, announces her challenge to incumbent Jeff Denham. Denham is defeated by a surprisingly wide margin, 54-46, in the top two after having easily won his prior three elections. There is some controversy over whether Gagliani moved within the district and whether she used to live in the district or not, but not enough to prevent her from taking down Denham. D+1.

CA-12: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi stuns much of the political world in February of 2016 when she announces that due to health issues she will not seek reelection. The career of one of California's most decorated Congressional members comes to an end. In the beyond-safe Democratic district, San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee advances to face Assemblyman David Chiu, with six other Democrats failing to make the runoff. It is the first election outside of Hawaii where both candidates are Asian-American, and the first-ever contest where both are Chinese-American. In an upset, Chiu defeats Lee by running to Lee's left.

CA-16: Jim Costa faces Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, who he defeats narrowly 52-48. Costa continues to be California's most vulnerable incumbent Democrat.

CA-19: Zoe Lofgren retires after 22 years in Congress. She is replaced by 33-year old openly-gay and Asian American State Assemblyman Evan Low of Campbell, who defeats a local tech investor in an all-Democratic top two.

CA-21: With Valadao running for Senate, Democrats run Amanda Renteria again. She faces Andy Vidak, who she defeats 53-47 in the top two. D+1.

CA-25: Steve Knight is challenged once again by Tony Strickland and Lee Rogers. This time, it is Rogers who advances to face Knight. Strickland bucks his party by endorsing Rogers, stating, "I cannot in good conscience endorse Knight to represent the people of this district again." Rogers narrowly defeats Knight, 51-49. D+1.

CA-32: Grace Napolitano retires at the age of 80 after 18 years in Congress. In the safe Democratic district, Ed Hernandez is elected to replace her.

CA-39: Democrats have a credible challenge here to Ed Royce in former professional racer and Yorba Linda native Ashley Force Hood, who despite the district's conservative lean runs against Royce as a shill for big banks and as a "relic" of Washington, playing up her youth and moderate profile. In one of the biggest upsets of the election cycle, Force Hood defeats Royce by 5,000 votes and immediately becomes California's most vulnerable new Democrat. The race is a rare snatching of a Republican seat from an incumbent in Republican-leaning Orange County. D+1.

CA-44: Janice Hahn retires, is replaced by Isadore Hall.

CA-49: Despite the (Atlas red) tide sweeping California, Democrats fail to find a viable candidate in a district where nearly all downballot offices are held by the GOP.

CA-52: Carl DeMaio tries a rematch against Scott Peters and loses by an even larger margin than before, with Peters winning 54-46. The loss is regarded as the end of DeMaio's political career.

San Diego Mayor: Kevin Faulconer cruises to reelection as Mayor despite the Democratic wave in California, immediately vaulting him to the top of California's most viable Republican officeholder.

CA Legislature: Democrats win a blowout, taking six seats in the Assembly to increase their advantage to 58-22, one of their biggest majorities in history. Chris Holden becomes the Speaker. Democrats finish the election with a 27-13 advantage in the State Senate.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 338
Cruz/Portman: 189

CA-

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Alaska

Presidential: The state continues to trend D, to the surprise of most, with Cruz winning 53% of the vote to Clinton's 44%. Her percentage is the highest by a Democrat since 1968 and the nine-point win is the narrowest margin by a Republican since that same year.

AK Senate: Lisa Murkowski defeats Joe Miller 55-40 in a three-way primary to advance to the general, where she defeats Hollis French with ease. It is seen as a rebuke to the Palinite wing of the party.

AK Legislature: No change in the composition of either chamber.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 338
Cruz/Portman: 192

Hawaii

Presidential: Clinton keeps the streak alive, failing to reach Obama's favorite-son levels of support in the 70s but winning 67% of the vote to Cruz's 29%. Neither candidate spent any particular time here.

HI Senate: Schatz does not attract any real opponent in the primary or in the general.

HI House: Both incumbents are easily reelected.

HI Legislature: Democrats pick off two seats in the house to attain a 45-6 advantage and the composition of the Hawaii Senate has no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 342
Cruz/Portman: 192

Clinton is elected as the 45th President of the United States!

(As an aside, I know I screwed up my math somewhere on the electoral votes. I'll upload the map to get it right.)

[KingSweden]

Great update.  Again, one minor quibble:

United States elections, 2016

California

Presidential: Clinton scores the highest margin of victory in California for a Democrat in history, winning 63% of the vote over Cruz, who takes 35%, the lowest total for a Republican since the three-way 1992 election. The blowout cements California as the backbone of the Democratic coalition.

2nd highest: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1936&fips=6&f=0&off=0&elect=0

I should start using Atlas as my reference, Wikipedia doesn't go that far back thank you for the check.

[KingSweden]

The map of the 2016 Presidential election:

Clinton/Heinrich: 347
Cruz/Portman: 191
(These numbers are from the Map Calculator).

[KingSweden]

Meet your freshman Senate class of 2016:

Republicans:

Charles Boustany (LA)
Raul Labrador (ID)
Josh Romney (UT)
Brian Sandoval (NV)*
Todd Young (IN)

Democrats:

Cheri Bustos (IL)*
Janet Cowell (NC)*
Kamala Harris (CA)
Maggie Hassan (NH)*
Jason Kander (MO)*
Ron Kind (WI)*
Tim Ryan (OH)*
John Sarbanes (MD)
Joe Sestak (PA)*
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ)*

(A * next to a name denotes a pickup.)

Democrats have a net of +7 and now hold a majority of 53-47 in the United States Senate.

[KingSweden]

Meet your House freshman class of 2016:

Republican:

AL-5: Arthur Orr
AZ-6: Ben Quayle
ID-1: Bob Nonini
IN-3: Dennis Kruse
IN-9: Mike Moore
KS-1: Pat Apple
KY-1: Dakota Meyer
LA-3: Fred Mills
MS-1: Brad Mayo
OH-15: Jim Hughes
TN-4: Bill Ketron
UT-4: Stephen Sandstrom
VA-4: Rick Morris

Democratic:

AZ-9: David Schapira
CA-10: Cathleen Gagliani*
CA-12: David Chiu
CA-19: Evan Low
CA-21: Amanda Renteria*
CA-25: Lee Rogers*
CA-32: Ed Hernandez
CA-39: Ashley Force Hood*
CO-3: Joseph Garcia*
CO-6: Andrew Romanoff*
FL-7: Randolph Bracy*
FL-13: Charlie Justice*
FL-23: Evan Jenne
FL-26: Dwight Bullard*
IA-1: Anesa Kajtazovic*
IA-3: Chet Culver*
IL-5: Anita Alvarez
IL-7: Latasha Thomas
IL-10: Brad Schneider*
IL-12: James Clayborne, Jr.*
IL-17: Mike Jacobs
IN-1: Karen Freeman-Wilson
IN-2: John Broden*
MD-3: Josh Cohen
ME-2: Troy Jackson*
MI-1: Jerry Cannon*
MI-7: Brian Mackie*
MI-8: Virg Bernero*
MI-11: Jason Tucker*
MI-13: Tupac Hunter
MN-2: Matt Schmit*
MN-3: Melissa Halvorson Wiklund*
MN-7: Paul Marquart
MN-8: Tom Bakk
NH-1: Donna Soucy*
NJ-2: Bill Hughes, Jr.*
NV-4: Steven Horsford*
NY-11: Michael McMahon (special)*
NY-13: Adriano Espaillat
NY-22: Robert Palmieri*
NY-23: Svante Myrick*
NY-24: Stephanie Miner*
NY-25: Lovely Warren*
OH-9: Matt Szollosi
OH-10: Fred Strahorn*
OH-13: Zack Milkovich
OH-16: Betty Sutton*
OR-4: Chris Edwards
OR-5: Brent Barton
PA-6: Judy Schwank*
PA-7: Matt Bradford*
PA-8: Patrick J. Murphy*
PA-14: Luke Ravenstahl
SC-6: Joel Lourie
VA-1: Kenny Alexander*
VA-3: Don McEachin
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton*
WA-3: Tim Leavitt*
WA-8: Mark Mullet*
WI-3: Julie Lassa
WI-6: Gordon Hintz*
WI-7: Nick Milroy*

* denotes a pickup

Democrats gain 40 seats to take a 228-207 majority in the United States House of Representatives and have retaken the chamber.

[KingSweden]

So by math, the new Congress is +40, meaning Democrats retake the house?! 206 to 228, in favor of Democrats?

Your math is correct! I hadn't counted myself. Should be 228 to 207, Republicans need 11 seats to retake the chamber.

[KingSweden]

Thoughts and analysis on the Democrats' stunning victory:

The "Suburban Strategy": The "Southern Strategy" is so 1960s. Democrats, particularly the DCCC, sensing an opportunity to hammer Cruz, coordinate their campaigns in Northern suburbs painting him as a Southern reactionary, particularly using microtargeting pioneered by the two Obama campaigns to identify union households, minority voters and white-collar suburbanites displeased by the hard-right Cruz. Much of it is used to stir up fears of a "Tea Party takeover" and try to portray any vote for Republican congressional candidates as a vote for Cruz.

The Turnout Thing: Pundits and election observers note the massive Democratic landslide was abetted by great turnout - unlike their disastrous election two years earlier. In the course of two years, Democrats went giving Republicans their largest majority since 1928 and losing the most Senate seats since 1980 to netting seven seats - including in conservative Arizona and Missouri - and winning 40 seats in the House only six years after Republicans seized 63 seats from them. The wild swings in Presidential and non-Presidential turnout do not go unnoticed.

The Republican Demographic Problem: Despite being Cuban-American, Cruz only wins 23% of Hispanics, even worse than Romney's disastrous showing in 2012, and Republicans only win 28% of the Asian-American vote. Many pundits comment on an "existential crisis" for Republicans if they cannot improve their numbers amongst growing demographics, especially since Cruz "only" wins 56% of whites.

The Solid South is gone: The 2007-2011 Democratic House majority was underpinned by representatives from rural and conservative districts in Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and North Carolina that Democrats did not even try to contest this time. In addition, Cruz mops up in conservative suburban, exurban and rural precincts across the South, with some areas posting record numbers for Republicans. This is taken as a sign that politics are increasingly polarized along regional lines in addition to racial and generational lines.

There is no "Silent Majority": The much-ballyhooed "silent majority" of voters who don't turn out because there isn't a "true conservative" on the ballot is probably put to rest with the wipeout of Cruz outside of the South, Appalachia and rural West. Establishment Republicans, though licking their wounds, will hold up Cruz for years to come as an "I-told-you-so" to grassroots conservatives.

[KingSweden]

November 2016: A week after the election, massive snowstorms strike New England and upstate New York, killing 13. Mitch McConnell and John Boehner both announce they will step down as party leaders after the disastrous November results. Portman aides leak issues in the campaign where Cruz would not let "the candidate off of a leash."

Democrats select Steny Hoyer of Maryland to be the next Speaker, Xavier Becerra of California to be the next Majority Leader and Joseph Crowley is elected to be the Majority Whip, with Jared Polis as Chief Deputy Whip and Donna Edwards is tapped as Caucus Chairwoman, with Joseph Kennedy III as Vice-Chair. Ben Ray Lujan will stay on as head of the DCCC after his wildly successful first term.

Republicans keep Kevin McCarthy on as Minority Leader, Steve Scalise as Minority Whip and Cathy McMorris-Rodgers remains Caucus Chairwoman while Pat McHenry stays on as Deputy Whip with Lynn Jenkins being tapped for Policy Committee Chair. Steve Womack is elected as the next head of the Republican Study Committee.

November 2016 (continued): In France, Francois Fillon wins the primary for the UMP, defeating 71-year old Alain Juppé and former President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose campaign implodes under scrutiny of investments in the Middle East and his earlier judicial issues. Arnaud Montebourg defeats Manuel Valls and Martine Aubry to become candidate for the Socialists, sending off warning bells throughout Europe. The same snowstorm causing issues in New England brings Quebec to a halt, with 50 deaths and widespread public anger in Montreal at the lack of municipal response to it. At the halfway point in Narendra Modi's first term, he is already one of the most popular PMs in Indian history with high GDP growth, lowered unemployment and investment pouring in.

[KingSweden]

December 2016: President Obama gives a farewell address. The Dow Jones hits 19,000 points but falls back to 18,250 by the end of the month. Clinton announces her choice of former Biden chief of staff and DLC head Bruce Reed as White House Chief of Staff, and former New Mexico AG Gary King is tabbed as Vice President-elect Martin Heinrich's chief of staff. Massive snowstorms blanket much of the Midwest, and hundreds of flights are cancelled the week of Christmas.

December 2016 (continued): The caretaker government of Venezuela collapses after a disagreement between Capriles and Cabello, leading to mass violence as chavista paramilitaries begin a massive campaign of violence. Two senior Yemeni government officials are assassinated. In Australia, Tony Abbott drops the writ for a January election. Signs show that the Eurozone is reentering recession by the end of the month.

And now, for Sports: Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson wins the Heisman over LSU running back Leonard Fournette. The third College Football Playoff will feature two-time ACC champion Clemson against Big Twelve champion TCU in the Peach Bowl, and SEC champion LSU against Pac-12 champion USC in the Fiesta Bowl. The Seattle Sounders, winners of the US Open Cup and the runner up to the Supporters Shield, win their first-ever MLS Cup 1-0 over New York City FC. In the FIFA Club World Cup, Mexican side Club América defeats Brazil's Santos and then European champions Juventus in an improbable run to become the first CONCACAF club to take the cup.

[KingSweden]

January 2017: The 115th Congress convenes, with Democrats holding a 228-207 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. In the Senate, Chuck Schumer is the new Senate Majority leader, with Dick Durbin staying on at Whip, Patty Murray as Caucus Vice-Chair, Amy Klobuchar as Senate Democratic Secretary, Mark Warner as head of the DSCC, Elizabeth Warren as Chair of the Policy Committee and Jeff Merkley as Chair of Steering and Outreach. It is a considerably more liberal leadership team than before.

Republican caucus members, many feeling burned by the heavy losses accompanying Cruz, stun much of the political world by voting John Thune as Senate Minority Leader over Cornyn, who remains Minority Whip. John Barrasso of Wyoming takes Thune's spot as Conference Chairman, Jerry Moran is elevated to take over as Conference Vice-Chair, and Roger Wicker is tapped to Policy Committee Chair. After his narrow survival in 2016 in flush-with-cash Florida, Marco Rubio is promoted to head of the NRSC with an eye on Bill Nelson's likely retirement, and Colorado's Cory Gardner is made Vice Chairman of the NRSC. It is not lost on anyone that the new Senate leadership team draws significantly more from the Plains and Mountain states than from the South.

January 2017 (continued): The UN Security Council authorizes a peacekeeping force in the increasingly unstable Venezuela, prompted by revelations by two Reuters journalists of a mass grave in the rural, chavista south containing 700 bodies. It is the last crisis of the Obama administration and the first of the Clinton administration. Flash floods in Serbia cause major instability in the country's volatile south. Mariano Rajoy presents to the Spanish Parliament broad constitutional reforms, including a much more federal system with new local control powers to regions, the recognition of "nations within Spain" and the elimination of thirty seats in Parliament.

And now, for Sports: Clemson and LSU advance to face one another at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the CFP championship - on a last-minute touchdown drive, Fournette scores on a two-yard run on a misdirection play to defeat Heisman winner Watson and his Tigers 21-20 in an instant classic. In the NFC championship game, the Los Angeles Rams defeat the Seattle Seahawks while in the AFC title game the Indianapolis Colts beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Both home teams advance to the Super Bowl.

[KingSweden]

Australian federal election, January 2017

Tony Abbott's Coalition, entering the election with 90 seats, lose 13 seats as the polls narrow between the National-Liberal coalition and Labor. The Coalition knocks off the two seats held by the KAP and PUP, but Labor gains fifteen seats under Bill Shorten's leadership, primarily in areas of metropolitan Sydney and Melbourne they lost earlier. Abbott's economic program and personal unpopularity are cited as reasons for the steep loss, though he is able to retain government due to a still-damaged Labor brand.

The standings in Parliament after the election:

Coalition: 77
Labor: 70
Independent: 2
Green: 1

Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten both remain party leaders.

[KingSweden]

The Administration of Hillary Rodham Clinton

President: Hillary Clinton (former Secretary of State, Senator for NY and First Lady of the United States)
Vice President: Martin Heinrich (former Senator and US Representative from NM)

Secretary of State: Joe Biden (former Vice President and Senator from DE)
Secretary of Defense: Tom Donilon (former National Security Advisor)
Secretary of the Treasury: Clint Zweifel (former Missouri State Treasurer)
Attorney General: Eric Schneiderman (former New York Attorney General)
Secretary of the Interior: Mark Udall (former Senator from CO)
Secretary of Agriculture: Mark Pryor (former Senator from AR)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Julian Castro (holdover from Obama admin; former Mayor of San Antonio)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Sylvia Burwell (holdover from Obama admin)
Secretary of Education: Dennis Walcott (former Chancellor of New York Public School System)
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Ralph Northam (former Lieutenant Governor of Virginia and Army Medical Corps officer)
Secretary of Commerce: Glenn Nye (former Representative for Virginia's 2nd Congressional District)
Secretary of Labor: Loretta Lynch (former United States Attorney General)
Secretary of Transportation: Anthony Foxx (holdover from Obama admin; former Mayor of Charlotte)
Secretary of Energy: Heather Wilson (former US Representative for New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District; ran against Vice President Martin Heinrich in the 2012 Senatorial election. Only Republican in Clinton's Cabinet.)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Susan Rice (former US Ambassador to the UN and National Security Advisor)

[KingSweden]

The inauguration of Hillary Clinton: All five living former Presidents are present at the inauguration, in which Clinton hearkens often back to her husband's prosperous term and promises, "Together, we can recapture that American dream for generations to come."

Her inaugural ball is criticized early for its excesses, though she invites the entire Congressional leadership from both Houses to attend, wanting to try to show a more bipartisan era, and dances with both Speaker Hoyer and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy in an odd, awkward exchange.

The Obamas fly first to Chicago and then to Hawaii for a much-overdue vacation. Sympathetic pundits weigh in that Obama's term was mostly successful - the economy improved, albeit slowly, so that when he left office the unemployment rate was only 5.4%, the stock markets rallied and the United States became one of the world's largest oil producers. In terms of actual policies, healthcare remains his biggest and most divisive accomplishment, in addition to immigration and environmental administrative actions. His term is noted for the sharp rise in partisanship, particularly from Republicans, and he is criticized for his apparent aloofness, his seeming distaste for the politics required by the office, his inability to leverage his status as the first black President into doing much for race relations, his close-knit circle of advisers who seemed to hamstring him, and his somewhat sclerotic foreign policy. All in all, most pundits give him a decent review and caution that like with all Presidents, his legacy will improve with time.

The attitude of most Republican pundits is something along the lines of "Don't let the door hit you on the way out," though few say as much.

[KingSweden]

February 2017: Susana Martinez appoints her Lieutenant Governor, John Sanchez, to serve out the remainder of VP Martin Heinrich's term. Clinton makes her first foreign visit as President to Mexico, where she meets with President Pena Nieto, before traveling to Colombia to discuss the UN intervention in Venezuela with the leaders of Colombia, Peru, Chile and Brazil. Chuck Schumer does not ax the filibuster as is widely anticipated, instead maintaining the "Reid Rule" on judicial and executive nominations while opening up the amendment tree per Republican requests, but also requires "talking filibusters" per Democratic requests. Nobody in either party is particularly happy with the result, with many Democrats wanting to kill the filibuster completely and Republicans frustrated that their minority rights are being trampled on, warning that Schumer will turn the Senate into another House. Revised GDP figures show only 1.1% growth in the last quarter of 2016 on the heels of a sub-200,000 job employment report, sending the Dow Jones down to 17,200.

Hoyer's narrow House majority passes a flurry of surprisingly liberal bills, most passing with only a handful of defections from members in conservative districts and almost unanimous Republican opposition whipped by Scalise. These measures include:

• The Minimum Wage Act of 2017, raising the federal minimum wage to $8.75 on January 1, 2018 and 10.25 on January 1, 2019, with the wage indexed to 1.25 times the rate of inflation from then on.
• The National Overtime Restoration Act, introduced in the House by Jerrold Nadler and in the Senate by Maria Cantwell. The NORA reestablishes a 40-hour workweek for all salaried and wage-labor positions that earn less than $75,000 per year. It does not account for total household income. Democrats sell the measure as a stimulatory effect meant to promote job security, worker productivity and even lower unemployment.
• The Financial Crisis Prevention Act (FCPA), a new Glass-Steagall, which repeals Gramm-Leach-Bliley and strengthens the SEC's authority to investigate and prosecute wrongdoing. The bill becomes known as Warren-Waters, as Liz Warren introduces it in the Senate and Maxine Waters, chair of the House Financial Services Committee, brings it out of her committee to the floor of the house. The measure passes both Houses and is signed by President Clinton despite fierce lobbying by the Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street. Despite rumors that Schumer and Warner plan to kill it, the measure passes the Senate 61-49, with Jeff Flake, Brian Sandoval, Dean Heller, Steve Daines, Susan Collins, John Hoeven, Rand Paul and Lamar Alexander crossing over to approve it.
• The Law Enforcement Reform Act (LERA). The act is fairly small ball, simply curtailing the amount of excess military supplies the Pentagon may sell to law enforcement each year and providing supplies for local police agencies to use body cameras.
• Women's Reproductive Fairness Act. The act, introduced by Kathy Castor in the House and Republican Senator Cory Gardner in the Senate, makes it a federal statute to allow over-the-counter birth control pills without a prescription sold to anyone over the age of 18 nationwide, with an amendment allowing states to set the statutory age lower if they wish. Republican support for the measure in the Senate nearly collapses when Kamala Harris attempts to include morning-after pills in the bill.
  

A number of liberal priorities do not pass either House. Stringent fracking regulations introduced by Deputy Whip Jared Polis fail to pass a floor vote, with over half of the Democratic caucus voting against it along with unanimous Republican opposition. Attempts to introduce mandatory nationwide sick leave stalls after many conservative Democrats allow NORA and the minimum wage to pass but, led by Wisconsin freshman Gordon Hintz, announce that "two out of three ain't bad." Card check legislation flounders even worse than in the 111th Congress, especially in light of setbacks to organized labor in the intervening years. A new oil windfall tax and expansion of the EITC fail as well over opposition from conservative Democrats and Republicans in both Houses.

February 2017 (continued): Colombia becomes the staging ground for 40,000 UN troops, with 8,000 troops supplied by the United States and 4,000 sent by France. Brazil mobilizes 20,000 soldiers that it stations along its long, remote border with Venezuela, the largest military operation undertaken by the country in decades. A passenger train derails in China, killing 171 people on board. An earthquake strikes Kenya, causing widespread damage and up to 20,000 dead. A massive general strike begins in Italy over labor and pension reforms undertaken by Renzi's center-left PD government, shutting the country down.

And now, for Sports: The No. 1 Defense of the Los Angeles Rams faces off against the No. 1 offense of the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl LI. Colts QB Andrew Luck throws for 371 yards, three touchdowns with no interceptions and runs for a fourth as he paces the Colts to a 38-21 win over the Rams to earn the Colts' third Super Bowl championship and first since 2007. Luck wins Super Bowl MVP, becoming the first player since Kurt Warner in 1999 to win both Super Bowl and regular season MVP and the first player to win both MVP awards and NFL Offensive Player of the Year since Joe Montana in 1989. In the NBA, Kevin Durant, in his first season with the Washington Wizards, becomes the first player in NBA history to score 50 points four games in a row as the Wizards go undefeated in the month of February.

[KingSweden]

March 2016: At the midway point of her first "hundred days," President Clinton announces her five-point domestic plan: the expansion of the United States as an energy power, a "streamlining" of the federal bureaucracy through consolidation and a vaguely-defined "checklist" system, comprehensive immigration overhaul, improving veteran's care/employment and criminal justice reform. She challenges Congress to pass a major piece touching each item by the end of the calendar year.

Democrats pass their budget on a mostly party-line vote in both chambers, with seven Democrats defecting in the House and three Democrats (Heitkamp, Donnelly and Manchin) defecting in the Senate so that Heinrich has to be the tiebreaking vote. The reconciled budget, needing only 51 votes to pass, eliminates the cap on Social Security taxes, raises the debt ceiling for ten years, establishes a windfall tax on oil and natural gas to pay for public transportation, adds a 5% surtax on income over 1 million dollars, adds a 0.5% tax on intraday financial transactions, and closes dozens of tax loopholes and extends the depreciation lifetime of dozens of others. Spending programs include subsidies for affordable housing, increased infrastructure grants, the establishment of a private-public infrastructure bank, and a cut in student loan rates. The budget also sets a blueprint to eliminate duplicitous federal programs and increase the federal retirement age to 68 by 2030, with an increase to 66 in 2025. Republicans protest the budget as a liberal power-grab, and the budget does not poll well.

March 2017 (continued): Plenty of action in the Commonwealth. In both Britain and Canada, the minority governments fail to pass their budgets after minor parties granting them confidence decline to help them pass the budget packages. Ed Balls calls a general election and dismisses the government, while Trudeau pulls the budget to avoid a dissolution and high-level negotiations begin with the NDP. Protests spread in Argentina after the government narrowly avoids another default. The crisis in Venezuela shows no sign of improving despite the two-month old UN intervention. The last Ebola case in West Africa is identified, after 30,000 dead over three years.

Russian Instability: Protests envelop Russia, particularly Moscow and St. Petersburg, after the shooting death of a popular music star in what is believed to be a Mafia-sanctioned hit on her boyfriend. The protests come to be a catch-all for general discontent with a recession-wracked economy, autocratic government, and collapsing standards of living. The irony that these protests are occurring 100 years after the fall of the Romanovs, and on Twitter the hashtag "Russian Revolution 2017" trends.

[KingSweden]

April 2017: Reform bill passes Congress to merge the US Department of the Interior with the US Department of Energy and the EPA to form a "Department of Natural Resources." The blueprint is subject to intense debate in the Senate, where Republicans desire to use the opportunity to roll back the responsibilities of all three departments. The bill eventually passes after Raul Labrador's filibuster is ended and a target date of June 1, 2020 is set for the merger to be 100% done.

In the Senate, Cory Booker and Rand Paul present the "Drug Sentencing Reform Act of 2017" (DSRA) which significantly increase the amounts required to trigger federal mandatory minimum sentence laws, give prosecutors and judges significantly more discretion for "medium amount" drug possession charges, forbids federal agents from prosecuting non-violent offenses in states with decriminalization statutes and decriminalizes non-violent marijuana offenders without a prior criminal conviction. In a sister bill also introduced by Paul, co-sponsored by Kamala Harris, the "Criminal Justice and Enforcement Reform Act" (CJERA), the Justice Department revamps its federal sentencing procedures, giving considerably more discretion to prosecutors and slashing prison sentence lengths across the board and promotes work release. Two major Clinton initiatives have thus seen progress so far.

In the middle of the month, tragedy strikes when Speaker of the House Steny Hoyer suffers a fatal stroke and passes away at the age of 77. He is the first Speaker to die in office since Sam Rayburn in 1961, and has the second-shortest Speakership in history and the shortest Speakership to last more than 1 day. The House Democratic Caucus elects to take a "next man up" approach, elevating Xavier Becerra to Speaker, Joe Crowley to Majority Leader and Donna Edwards to Majority Whip after she defeats Jared Polis for the job, who stays on as Chief Deputy Whip. Joe Kennedy becomes Caucus Chair and taps Joe Courtney as Vice Chair. Hoyer lies in state in the US Capitol and is buried in Mechanicsville, Maryland, his home. President Clinton, former President Obama, Speaker Becerra, former Speakers Pelosi and Boehner, and Minority Leader McCarthy all speak at his funeral.

April 2017 (continued): Budget negotiations between the Liberals and New Democrats in Canada collapse at the end of the month two days before a budget is due and Trudeau drops the writ to call an election for the first week of June. The campaign in Britain heats up. Russian police and paramilitaries fire upon protestors, causing mass riots complete with tear gas and firebombings in the capital. FIFA debates moving the 2017 Confederations Cup over concern that the situation is too unstable in Russia. Nawaz Sharif is narrowly reelected in general elections in Pakistan as Prime Minister. The death toll from the Syrian civil war is now estimated to have reached 200,000, and Assad looks to have secured a pyrrhic victory with ISIS largely beaten back into a handful of enclaves and the rebels scattered and poorly trained.

And now, for Sports: FIFA decides not to move the Confederations Cup by the end of the month. At the 2017 Final Four in Glendale, Arizona, the Arizona Wildcats win their second national championship and first since 1997 in front of a raucous home crowd after defeating the loaded Kentucky Wildcats in the semifinals and then beating the Cinderella VCU Rams in the Finals, VCU having defeated Connecticut in their own semifinal.

[KingSweden]

French Presidential election, 2017

Francois Fillon and Marine Le Pen advance to the runoff with 38% and 28% of the vote, respectively. Arnaud Montebourg is able to only garner 25%, eliminating him from the race, while several smaller parties, including a stridently left-wing outfit calling itself New Left, takes the remainder.

It is the second time in the 20th century at the National Front makes the runoff, and the second time in which it faces the UMP in such a scenario. Most moderate Socialists defect to Fillon, as do most from the moderate parties that did not advance further. The runoff shows the following percentage:

Francois Fillon: 58%
Marine Le Pen: 42%

It is still a frighteningly high total for the FN and gives the party hope that it can soon attain even greater victories. Fillon is sworn in as the 24th President of France.

[KingSweden]

It is extremely unlikely and practically impossible that Susana Martinez, the Republican governor of New Mexico will appoint Bill Richardson, a Democrat to Heinrich's seat. The only time a Governor appointed a member of the opposing party to the Senate in recent years was in 2007 when Wyoming governor Dave Freudenthal, a Democrat, appointed John Barrasso, a Republican. However, Freudenthal had no choice as per Wyoming state law, he was forced to chose between three people (all Republicans) presented to him by the Republican dominated state legislature and picked Barrasso by default because he was the most moderate of the three.

But this is not just any Democrat, it's Bill Richardson, who us Hispanic Republicans probably despise more than any Democrat for his comments he made about Ted Cruz hinting he is "not Hispanic" by his conservative politics.  I'm not a fan of Mr. Cruz at all but as a Hispanic Republican, it makes me cringe when I hear one of the most prominent Hispanic politicians in the country infer that in order to be "Hispanic," you must be a liberal Democrat as well. Thanks, Bill. So yes, I sure Martinez who made history as the nation's first Latina governor and just so happens to have an R next to her name loves these comments and will appoint Richardson to the Senate.

I feel a little sad reading this, because I know this timeline could be a lot better. This could probably even be the best timeline on the entire website if you just do not let your personal biases cloud the plausibility of this timeline. It's very plausible that 2016 will be a very good year for the Democrats. That being said, your TL takes that and puts it to an extreme. It's impossible the Democrats will take the House due to Republican gerrymandering, unless there's something really stupid the Republican congress does (and I mean not a shutdown like in 2013 but something along the lines of trying to impeach Obama which they repeatedly stated they won't do), or a resurgence of Blue Dogs or a combination of these things. However, to say that Democrats take the House based on Hillary coattails alone (which is based on what I read so far probably your most likely explanation) shows a lacking of American politics beyond belief. As I mentioned before, based on the shape of the American electorate, a lot of the votes that will put Clinton over the edge will come from Republican-leaning independents and moderate Republicans who are disillusioned by Cruz's divisive rhetoric, not voting for Clinton because they love her. As a result, they will vote for Republicans for congress (since their vote for president is not as much for Clinton as it is against Cruz) and a ton of Republicans in marginal districts that went for Clinton will win re-election. And Ed Royce losing re-election, seriously? I have family in that district, and don't be fooled by it's R+5 PVI, there's virtually no Democrats there. Royce is an insanely popular congressman and will have that district as long as he wants, end of story.

And If you really want Richardson to be a senator you know there's a Senate election in 2018...

I'm sorry you find the TL biased, Charles. I've tried to consider current trends in sketching out this TL and throw in "random" events like in real life and random upset wins, I.e. Chris Gibson surviving in NY in a D wave. D hackery is hardly my intention.

As for Richardson, my understanding is that the NM Governor is required to appoint someone of the same party. I was originally going to put Heather Wilson (R) in that seat. I figured Martinez would tap someone unlikely to run in 2018 to effect an open seat and help her party that way. I don't particularly care for Bill Richardson myself, I just couldn't think of anyone else who fits those requirements.

[KingSweden]

Thank you all for the support and constructive criticism.

As an aside, anyone who enjoys this timeline and has a Kindle feel free to message me and I can give you the link to my self-published work on Amazon.

[KingSweden]

The only states where it's required to fill the seat with someone from the same party are Arizona, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming.

Thanks! Since I already have a task for Heather Wilson now, I suppose it's congratulations to Senator John Sanchez.

[KingSweden]

United Kingdom general election, 2015

The campaign is forced after Ed Ball's second budget fails to pass Parliament, with the informal Labour-Lib Dem-SNP-Plaid-SDLP "confidence pact" collapsing. The Tories had lead in polls for months and capitalized by gaining seats at Labour and Lib Dem expense - however, UKIP gains in the south and northwest again and Labour snags back numerous seats from the SNP. For the third election in a row, no party has a majority of seats.

The seat totals in the House of Commons after the election:

Conservative Party: 293
Labour Party: 270
UK Independence Party: 32
Scottish National Party: 20
Liberal Democratic Party: 16
Democratic Unionist Party: 8
SDLP: 4
Plaid Cymru: 3
Sinn Fein: 3 (in abstention)
Green Party: 3

It is the first election in which no party reaches 300 seats. PM Ed Balls concedes that Labour has no combination of parties it can cobble together to reach the magical 326. Tory leader George Osborne declares victory and immediately begins looking to the Liberal Democrats, DUP, Greens and Plaid Cymru to stitch together an ideologically diverse coalition that will govern as a strong minority. After several days of negotiations, the Greens and Plaid pull out, leaving the Tories to look to the Lib Dems for a "confidence pact" and with Osborne feeling heat from his right flank to create a coalition with the UK Independence Party.

After two weeks of a hung parliament, which the presses call a "Government in Crisis," Osborne announces that he will govern in a minority government with a "confidence pact" in which the Labour Party pledges to give the government confidence. Though it is not an official grand coalition, it is compared to ones in Austria or Sweden over the last several years. In return for Labour's continued confidence in his government, Osborne promises not to hold any referendums on EU membership, cut welfare benefits or take any steps towards public sector union reform. Osborne's agreement with Balls is slammed by the Conservative Party's right wing, which points out that the Tories could have had a majority government in a Tory-UKIP coalition. Osborne's supporters on the right and in the middle counter that a UKIP coalition would be extremely volatile and Nigel Farage could effectively dictate government policy on threat of pulling out of the Cabinet.

17 days after the election, George Osborne is invited by Queen Elizabeth II to form a government and become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.