will the djia exceed 10,000 by the end of summer?

[Sam Spade]

I like BRTD's comment but also Duke's.  They're amusing, kinda.

Here's the point on the market folks.  There's an old saying "Sell in May and go away".  It usually starts occurring a few weeks in, but whatever.  Didn't occur last year until the end of the month.  In fact, stock market returns (even during bull markets) consistently under perform between May-October (and overperform the other six months).  Just a fact.

Anyway, long-term view, I've said since the beginning this is a bear-market rally and may well be the bear market rally of all bear-market rallies (in the beginning of a secular bear market).

But since I'm willing to listen to other points of view - there are two technical things that speak otherwise.  There are no fundamental things that say otherwise, unless you believe "less bad" is somehow improvement in the overall picture.  They are 1) at SP 500 @ 666, DOW @ 6547, both indices hit long-term up trendlines that go back to the 1987 crash and 2) Nasdaq never went below its November low, possibly saying double-bottom.

The really strong argument for this being nothing more than a big bear market rally is the fact that, since we hit about SP @ 860 or so, the thing is going parabolic.  Beginnings of new bull markets begin out parabolic and then settle into a slow, steady ascent.  This rally began out parabolic, went into a slow, steady ascent for a little while and has now gone parabolic again for the last few weeks.  Classic signal of a bear market rally in my view.

The more parabolic the market goes, the more likely the reverse will be nasty.  In fact, the more parabolic it goes, the more likely 666 does not hold (and it could happen quite quickly).  If we pull back from this point, maybe we get another surge in June before likely visiting the gates of hell.

Anyway, I would not want to be holding long right now just because of this problem, though you may be ok.  I have warned in January not to hold long past the 6 month point.  I see no reason to change from that position.