Official North Carolina Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Sam Spade]

It's really too bad that I'm not going to be with y'all this evening.  I look forward to talking about things tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

Basically, I have crap to do tonight that will keep me up all evening and which I can't be screwing around at the forum for. 

Shouldn't the fake exit polls be coming in soon.

[Sam Spade]

This is more useless than usual.

[Sam Spade]

Reverend Wright:

Not important: 50%
Important: 48%

(Obama: Uh-oh?)

IN or NC?

[Sam Spade]

14% black in IN would be a little higher than I expected.  But the other numbers seem right in line.

The Wright thing is more important in NC because I suspect blacks are unwilling to tell pollsters about how much they support his beliefs.  But who knows.  We're just guessing.

[Sam Spade]

In North Carolina, Clinton voters would go 45-38 Obama.  Not much help to the topline but interesting.

isnt't 1/3 black in NC incredibly low? or is that just my impression?

33% is lower than expected if that is the final number. Hillary can come within 5 if she wins 65% of the white vote.

Again, early voters were much more black.  You must factor them in.

You know, I read your post, but I'm curious.  North Carolina is able to track who votes by race or they require you to list your race when you register.  I know that NY (or Texas) doesn't do this.

[Sam Spade]

About what I would expect.  Let's see what happens.

Unfortunately, this will probably be my last post of the evening.