NC-SurveyUSA: Obama's lead down to 5

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

[Sam Spade]

bumping, so I can get an answer to my question... 

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

nc didnt have a primary in 2004.

right, right.

[Sam Spade]

Seems to me here that the mystery question is whether the black % is 33% or 40% or somewhere in between.

Yes.  If the black vote is only 1/3, down from 46% for Kerry, and Obama is losing North Carolina whites two-to-one in an open primary, this result is feasible.  How likely is that?

I might end up biting my tongue, I'm no good in the South, but I buy this about as much as I bought PPP's Obama +4 in Pennsylvania.  Well, I shouldn't be hyperbolic...

I'm confused.  Is 46% the % of the population in the 2004 primary that was black.  Or is this the % of Kerry's vote in the 2004 general election?  The distinction is quite important.

I guess a bit over 3/4 of the 2004 General turnout is what we saw in Virginia, so I guess that's reasonable.

I don't get it still.  And VA is not NC. 

My point is this - you can't be comparing Kerry's general election vote % to primary vote % because there are tons of white DINOs in NC, particularly in the SE, who are registered Democrat, but haven't voted for a Democrat in the general election since Carter, maybe.

[Sam Spade]

We'll see what happens, Alcon.  Especially after today's Sister Souljah moment - puts a few things into play.

[Sam Spade]

Didn't Edwards win NC in 2004?

Yes, as a caucus.

Which means it's worth about as much as josh22 giving his own opinion.