Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Sam Spade]

It will be interesting to see how close the final results are to these early [actual] exit poll figures. I think a bit of sleep would be nice though. Nos da.

Of course.  That's part of the fun - got to be patient though.  Night.

[Sam Spade]

If you think this wait is bad, at least we don't live in Zimbabwe.

[Sam Spade]

Exact exit poll:

Clinton 51.6%
Obama 47.8%

That is just what Ohio was.

The Clinton number was slightly lower, but yes.

[Sam Spade]

It's too early to start figuring anything, because we don't have early voting numbers to play around with.

[Sam Spade]

Fox News projects Clinton wins.

Isn't it too early, or does Michael Barone see something in the six precincts we've gotten so far.

[Sam Spade]

I hope this is not an example of lying voters again.

Also, there are few Democrats in Gillespie County, and if they are, they are rich Austinites.

[Sam Spade]

The fact that Obama is winning precincts (no matter how small) in those rural counties does encourage me a bit, after all they are homogenously very pro-Hillary.

Pennsylvania is not a place I would describe as homogenous, but ok...

[Sam Spade]

Scranton is particularly ugly, but I'm not surprised.  The numbers will keep bumping around a bit here, I suspect.

[Sam Spade]

I was expecting Luzerne to be much better for Obama. What happened?

You just don't understand Luzerne.

I knew it would be for Clinton and expected it to vote for her at around 60% but not 75%....

Isn't CLinton's family from that area - besides, ethnic Catholics...

[Sam Spade]

Philly about halfway through...

[Sam Spade]

Bucks 70-30 Hillary, so she is winning Levittown handsomely (that must be where it is from).

The levittown numbers in Nassau county were equally as interesting.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm... I wonder if it's going to be 4-1 in PA 12...

[Sam Spade]

84% from Philly now.

[Sam Spade]

Clinton is winning Greene County by 50 point!  PA-12.

Fayette County is even worse.  Al will be interested.

[Sam Spade]

Obama 52-48 in Centre (38% in)

[Sam Spade]

Doing some quick numbers here about the CDs in the less populated areas:
CD3 - Clinton 3-2
CD4 - The gerrymander is impossible out here, but it could well be Clinton 4-1, definitely 3-2
CD5 - There simply isn't enough rural to get it past 2-2 (62.5%) I think.
CD8 - Clinton 4-3
CD9 - Clinton 2-1 obviously
CD10 - Clinton 3-1
CD11 - Clinton 4-1
CD12 - Clinton 4-1
CD15 - Clinton 3-2
CD16 - Not enough for Obama to get out of 2-2, I suspect (still early)
CD17 - Reading won't help Clinton get enough past Dauphin - 2-2
CD18 - See CD4. Either Clinton 3-2 or 4-1
CD19 - Tied 2-2

CD6 will undoubtedly be 3-3.  Without a good breakdown, I can't say anything on CD7 or CD13.
CD1 will be 4-3 Obama and CD2 will be 7-2 Obama.
CD14, I don't know.  Who knows the gerrymander.

[Sam Spade]

PA-1: -1
PA-2: -5
PA-3: +1
PA-4: +3 (Optimistic for Clinton.)
PA-5: -
PA-6: -
PA-7: -1 (Probably.)
PA-8: +1
PA-9: +1
PA-10: +2
PA-11: +3
PA-12: +3
PA-13: +1 (Probably.)
PA-14: -1
PA-15: +1
PA-16: - (Probably.)
PA-17: - (Probably.)
PA-18: +1 (Balancing optimistic for Clinton in PA-4.)
PA-19: +1

Which is Clinton +10 on district delegates.

Looking at the numbers, PA-18 is more likely than PA-4.  I disagree about PA-7, that CD bleaches all of the black people out of DelCo, of which there are a sizable amount.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

[Sam Spade]

I doubt Obama is winning is the white vote in Delaware County.  There's nearly 20% black population there and a still sizable Republican registration, and as I said before - they bleached the black parts out of that CD (e.g. Chester (the city))

That last part to come in (the recent 22% that bumped it up to 55% Obama) was the city of Chester. Obama led 51-49 before that, in an area that's about as black as CD-7 overall (like BRTD said, about 7-8%). And that's ignoring the Chester County parts of CD-7, where Obama was probably stronger.

Alright, we'll get out the slide rule and measuring tape soon enough...

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like the voters in Bucks County took the bitter comment to heart.

Because, you know, Bucks is an economically depressed rural area.

More like the Rendell machine.

The only machine power in this election, I suspect, was a negative one.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

[Sam Spade]

Looking at what's left out here, I think Obama can reduce the margin down to 9%.  8%, probably not.

You're saying 9.0%? Because I have trouble seeing that happening. I can't see it move more than a couple of 0.1%. And it's 9.8% now.

Depends, really, on what is left in Philly and where.

[Sam Spade]

Hillary winning Montco. Wow.

It's the Jewish vote is my theory.

Could be that.  The Bucks Co. massacre is her most surprising showing to me (as Harrisburg is for Obama).

[Sam Spade]

Current margin: 9.55%*

* - If this goes above 9.6%, I win $100.  Pray for me!

You can now color in Pike and Potter to fit in with the surrounding environment.