Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Sam Spade]

Delegate Analysis - http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002703375&cpage=1

And, as usual, PA 13 is the center of the political universe, described as one of the most competitive districts in the state.

So, they project 53-50 Clinton for a high single digits victory?  Ouch.

Looking at the map, I think the max Clinton showing is probably around 60-43 delegate-wise.  I think CQ is being a tad conservative actually out west, so I'll say somewhere in between 55-57, if the numbers end up where I think they will.

What type of numbers statewide would you get for a 5-10-15-20 point margin respectively (I don't feel like doing the math)?

[Sam Spade]

In truth, there is the "predictable" scenario and there is the "race is over" scenario.  I think I've already publicly stated where I think those scenarios lie, but they should be kind of obvious.

The last M-D poll is one of the tools I'm using because they are a good pollster (although they've not been good at primaries, and who is, frankly).  We're going to see a few more of those tools come out soon.

And as for the Bradley effect, who knows.  Just be careful that it's more likely to appear and a greater level in PA than in OH.

[Sam Spade]

Does this friend in PA-01 live in the black areas, the white areas or the Hispanic areas?

[Sam Spade]

So, in other words, not the greatest area for him, but a place he shouldn't be ignoring, presuming of course, that your friend is black and Democrat...

[Sam Spade]

I sincerely doubt that it's called immediately.  Who knows, however...

[Sam Spade]

I sincerely doubt that it's called immediately.  Who knows, however...

No, Sam, not immediately, but I'm going to guess within 30 minutes the initial call will be made, FWIW though.  The final percentages are what's going to count anyway.

Be careful with the exit polls, however.  I do remember that the one for the 2004 general election was really bad.  Hilariously so.

[Sam Spade]

120% reporting.  Maybe in Philadelphia...

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI, I didn't see this earlier, but Obama will be spending the evening (giving his afterwards speech) in Evansville, IN.  Don't know where Clinton will be.

[Sam Spade]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

[Sam Spade]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Too early to say anything - if only these results were the final ones (and weren't more than anecdotal - they're splitting evenly garbage) - and we had about 100 precincts spread across the state - then we could say something..

[Sam Spade]

What is a normal primary turnout?  What were you expecting (low, medium, high)?  What is GE turnout like?  How many registered Dems are there in this precinct total?

The dividing line between heavy and light was 110 at 1:45 PM.  Huge is about 130.  Medium is about 90.  Very low would be about 40.

The precinct is about 95% Democrat, and 95% Black. 

This is not good news for Obama.

Let me ask one more question, and repeat one from earlier.

1) What is the normal % of the vote that has voted by 1:45 PM compared to final results (35-40-45 or something like that?)
2) How many registered Dems are there in the precinct?

[Sam Spade]

Alcon our little precinct is Lower Merion, Ward 8-4, and it is lollypopped shaped, with a circle next to Lancaster Ave, and then a long and narrow strip running down to the county line. The Strip is that 40% or more black area. Half of the circle is in the green zone, and half in the yellow zone which is higher income. Obama should be carrying this precinct by close to 2-1, I would think.

He should.  All the anecdotal reports seem to be bad news for Obama.  Mid double digits doesn't seem all that implausible.

Well, I tried to tell you folks. This is gonna be a landslide.

Close, but not quite a perfect quotation.

I didn't want to give it away too easily.

I found it quite funny.

[Sam Spade]

Shouldn't we be getting "exit polls" right about now?

Of course - OH NOES!

[Sam Spade]

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE BEER DRINKERS? Inquiring minds want to know.

Patience now.  I want to know about the voting habits of the binge drinkers.

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that, in PA, other is 50-50, but I also doubt that we have sufficient numbers to measure this through any exit poll, so that is useless.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Is everything as it seems, or is everything not as it seems.  That is the question.

[Sam Spade]

Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree,

lol, yeah right.

WEH THIANKES WEH AIS SZMART YOUSER IJUT!!!111

[Sam Spade]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

[Sam Spade]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

Would opium help ? 

I think only opium helps opebo.  But I may be confusing "help" with "damages" here.

[Sam Spade]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

It wouldn't be anywhere near that much - but then again it should be plainly obvious that, unless something changes, more Democrats will defect from Obama than vice versa.  Of course, with Indys and GOPers, that number is reversed, so...

[Sam Spade]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

If that's what the actual numbers are, of course...

[Sam Spade]

^^^^^^^^^^

lol

[Sam Spade]

We're going to know the result after the exit polls come in?  That's news to me.

[Sam Spade]

Is there going to be a CD results breakdown link?  Or is it just going to be guessing from counties - with that gerrymander, it's next to impossible.

[Sam Spade]

73% of voters over 45...