Feb. 9th and 10th election predictions

[Sam Spade]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

[Sam Spade]

Why do people talk about Louisiana as if all the blacks in the state lived in New Orleans? They live in the other cities as well too, (Baton Rouge is majority black), and like any southern state there's many rural blacks too.

A 2%-3% loss in the black population would make a difference concerning my prediction.  Also, the New Orleans machine was very good at turning out dead voters, historically, something which has unfortunately died away after Katrina.

[Sam Spade]

I'll put up predictions tomorrow:  Louisiana is tougher than it looks b/c I don't know how many blacks are left.

Hmmm...  I wonder how Ms. Babineaux Blanco and her ilk will vote???

Enough as to the first query, easily. Blacks live in large numbers outside of NO in Louisiana, and NO is still majority black to boot, and some whites left too.

Hmmm...  From the looks of it, I don't think I worded my statement properly.  The implication was not that "no blacks are left", but rather was what the percentage movement downward because of Katrina.

I think I kind of already know what the whites will do there.  I have too many relatives from the northern/western Louisiana part of this world for my own good.

[Sam Spade]

Thanks. I didn't know Louisiana had party registration, but it looks like it does. And among Dems it's 44.8% black. I think it's a done deal, unless the figures are stale, and in Orleans parish it looks like they might be. But still  ...

So, a 35,000 loss in voters would reduce the black% to 42.3% roughly.  Thanks!

[Sam Spade]

Prediction (more like a guess, but whatever)

Washington
Obama 55%
Clinton 45%

Nebraska
Obama 64%
Clinton 36%

Louisiana
Obama 55%
Clinton 44%
Edwards 1%

Maine
Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

Revised a little - I want to give Edwards the anti-woman, anti-black vote he'll get in Louisiana.