Official SC Republican Primary Results Thread

[Sam Spade]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/19/voting-machines-malfunction-in-south-carolina-republican-primary/

Report of voter machine malfunction in Horry County (Myrtle Beach area).  This is a McCain hotbed.  Supposedly, McCain's people are going to court to get the voting booths open for an extra hour (or so I hear).

[Sam Spade]

from Marc Ambinder

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is 53% high?  what was it in 2000?

53% would be high.  So actually, would 19% Independent participation.

I don't remember on veterans.

[Sam Spade]

Also, per what I'm reading - it sounds like to me that Thompson will be dropping out after tonight.

[Sam Spade]

the best I could do with the evangelical figure is calculate what % of Bush's support came from evangelicals in the 2004 GE....  26.4% of the SC electorate was evangelical-Bush....  55% of the Bush voters were non-evangelical.  not sure what that all means but the 53% seems pretty high, 19% Independents seems low...  small edge Huckabee until more info

Calculating from GE will get you nowhere, FYI. 

[Sam Spade]

2000 SC exit poll
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/SC/poll.rep.html

27% were vets which McCain won just 48-47 (right on par with the 25% figure, but McCain should do better relative to the field in a more cluttered race, although he should do worse in an absolute vote % sense)


and the big bad news for John McCain

30% were Independents... dwarfing the 19% Ambinder gave us...  McCain won Indies 60-34%.  he might well be f***ed

Problem is that pretty much every previous poll in SC this year showed McCain roughly tied among Republicans with Huckabee.  I know that wasn't the case in 2000.

FWIW, the "early numbers" from the exit polls I'm hearing were that McCain was tied in the early morning numbers with Huck, but inched ahead by a few points in the afternoon.  Still later numbers to calculate...

This is one of those times when I would say - wait for the results. 

[Sam Spade]

Yep, from what I'm reading, this race appears to be too close to call right now - probably the reason why McCain's people are talking about going to court.

[Sam Spade]

What time to expect first results?

Polls close @ 7 PM.  I don't know how quick they are.

[Sam Spade]

This is what Fox says concerning the exit polls (mid-afternoon, I think), with a comparison:

1. Independents made up roughly 30% of the vote in 2000; they're 20% today.  Head to-head, they're breaking more or less the same as they did in 2000 - 62-38 McCain (versus 64-34 in 2000).

2. Veteran vote is up from 2000 (35% today versus 27% in 2000).  McCain is taking more of them on a head-to-head basis than 2000 - (60-40 versus 50-50).

3. Conservative vote is slightly up from 2000 (2/3rds now versus 61% in 2000). McCain is doing better than he did in 2000 (45-55 today versus 30-70 in 2000).

4. The Evangelical vote MIGHT be up from 2000. It's unclear because the 2000 exit poll asked if voters were a member of the religious right, not evangelical. Today, it's 53%. Back in 2000, they were 34%. Head-to-head, McCain is doing better than he did in 2000 - 40-60 versus 26-75.  But less "religious right" would benefit Huckabee, I think, and that number sounds high to me for McCain.


One final word of advice:  Do not trust exit polls, especially incomplete ones. 

[Sam Spade]

Sam, just to clarify, what you mean when you say "head-to-head"?  Are you refering to the split between McCain and Huckabee as opposed to McCain and the field?  So, for example, when you say Indies are going 62-38 for McCain "head-to-head", does that mean that, among those Indies that voted for either McCain or Huckabee, Mac got 62% and Huck got 38%, or do you mean that Mac got 62% of *all* indies, even when considering other candidates?

McCain vs. the field

[Sam Spade]

Ah, OK, then that's good for McCain since, as I said earlier, he could still win SC even with far fewer votes than he got in 2000 because of the crowded field.  In fact, he could potentially get just 2/3rds as many votes as he got in 2000, but still win.

I know.  Problem is that I don't believe exit polls.  The ones today from Nevada were horrible (especially on the GOP side)

[Sam Spade]

Next-to-last round of exits sez:  McCain 33, Huckabee 27, Romney 16, Thompson just under 15.

For imprudent betting purposes only.

[Sam Spade]

Fox sez exits show McCain 32, Huckabee 27, which means in the book that it's too close to call based on the exits alone, and they will have to wait for tabulated results.

[Sam Spade]

What happened with that McCain lawsuit? Are they keeping the polls open later, because there's no results in yet.

I read the lawsuit was lost, FYI.  Don't remember where.

[Sam Spade]

Huckabee better win or I will eat my computer, and turn into a monster.

In other words, you'll be Huckabee pre-diet times.

[Sam Spade]

Ah, those southerners are acting like snow is the worst thing in the world.

It's no fun when the best thing you have to put on the roads is dirt (no salt).

[Sam Spade]

Thinking about it, a Huckabee victory might not actually be the best result for those who want to stop McCain. Huckabee winning means his supporters will stick with him, but Huckabee losing means at least some will defect to Romney, who has a much better chance at derailing McCain in states such as Illinois and California than Huckabee does.

Huckabee supporters defecting to Romney.  I really doubt it, but ok.

[Sam Spade]

Thinking about it, a Huckabee victory might not actually be the best result for those who want to stop McCain. Huckabee winning means his supporters will stick with him, but Huckabee losing means at least some will defect to Romney, who has a much better chance at derailing McCain in states such as Illinois and California than Huckabee does.

Huckabee supporters defecting to Romney.  I really doubt it, but ok.

According to the exit poll, Huckabee picked up quite a few conservative Protestants, non-evangelicals, who might otherwise prefer Romney (certainly to McCain) or Thompson (but he's dropping out).

If they're upper-income voters, then Romney can pick them up.  He seems to have no luck with the lower-income voters, and that's where the Huckabee base is.

[Sam Spade]

Less than 1% reporting... plenty of time for the squirrel-eater to come back...

You mean the guy with the son like Michael Vick.  Gotcha. 

[Sam Spade]

Well, if McCain does win tonight, you are probably looking at the next president of the united states, especially if hillary is the democratic nominee. the republican race is over.

I'm getting more worried about Romney. He's won three states and done no worse then second in any primary and looks to get third in SC tonight. Romney's still in this, though if McCain can win here and Florida he should have a pretty smooth go of it the rest of the way.

And which state in the South or NE (except maybe Mass. if you believe SUSA) will Romney win?

[Sam Spade]

Well, if McCain does win tonight, you are probably looking at the next president of the united states, especially if hillary is the democratic nominee. the republican race is over.

I'm getting more worried about Romney. He's won three states and done no worse then second in any primary and looks to get third in SC tonight. Romney's still in this, though if McCain can win here and Florida he should have a pretty smooth go of it the rest of the way.

And which state in the South or NE (except maybe Mass. if you believe SUSA) will Romney win?

Good point.  I'm saying I'm worried about Romney, but I still believe McCain will pull it out. But if the race gets to be just between the two of them I'm worried you'd see many conservatives go to Romney and he'd be able to snatch the nom from McCain. But your right, Romney's not really strong in places like NY or the south, though I believe he could win California, where McCain currently leads.

Maybe, but remember NY is WTA, whereas California is by CD mainly.  Romney needs to win California to have a shot.  Heck, he may need to win Florida to have a shot.

[Sam Spade]

In the end, the exit polls should be close to accurate, from what I'm seeing so far.

McCain by 5%-8%

[Sam Spade]

In the end, the exit polls should be close to accurate, from what I'm seeing so far.

McCain by 5%-8%

Then again NE South Carolina has not reported yet and it should be a Huckabee stronghold.

Not Horry County, the other parts yes, but McCain is beating Huck in Spartanburg County and Lexington County, which are not strongholds for him.

[Sam Spade]

Huckabee needs to be winning counties like Lexington and Spartanberg by strong margins to win and he's not, so far.  I really don't know what they're waiting for - Greenville?

I'm calling it for McCain.

[Sam Spade]

Good news for Huckabee. Charleston is 41% in. It has McCain @ 48%

McCain only won Charleston 50-47 8 years ago, I assume his margin is much larger now

About 25 points.  But he's winning Lexington and only a couple of points behind in Spartanburg.  Huck should be winning there.

[Sam Spade]

They're being cautious because of the problems in Horry County today.  I'm still saying McCain +7%, because Horry County is Myrtle Beach (mainly).

But who knows, maybe I'm wrong for a change.