Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

[Sam Spade]

Really, I think better than making predictions, we should throw darts at a board.  That's how close I suspect this race is.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like to me for the last round of movement - Obama may have some last-minute momentum going into tomorrow, and this could affect the prediction.

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

[Sam Spade]

It should be noted that the person to win IA won't necessarily have the highest number of voters going to the caucus planning to choose them as their first choice.

That is what is based in part with my final prediction, in addition to the fact that the weather looks good this year (and the last minute momentum).  It's a lot of factors to play with.

[Sam Spade]

Sam your prediction is percentage of delegates, right?

Nope.  The delegate numbers will naturally be a little higher for Edwards.

I simply see some late-breaking Obama momentum, in combination with good weather and a Hillary who seems to be no one's second choice.

I could be "dead" wrong, however.  This one is not easy.

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

That would make my evening (it won't happen, unfortunately).  Gravel has an interesting sense of humor...

[Sam Spade]

I am tempted to move Obama up to a 4-5% victory, but won't.

[Sam Spade]

The tracking polls are in direct conflict on Hillary versus Obama, per policalwire.com. One has Obama up by a lot, another Clinton up by a lot. Insider advantage shown on Real Clear Politics taken yesterday has the big three nearly tied: Obama 34%, Edwards 33%, and Clinton 32%. 

ARG is the outlier, and in ARG I do not trust.  The other polls would come out to a 3-4 point Obama win.  Zogby is actually historically very good in Iowa caucus predicting, so I'm not discounting his polls here like I might otherwise.