TX Gov: Perry at 40%, leads nearest opponent by 21%

[Sam Spade]

http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/April%202006/Texas%20Governor%20April.htm

Topline numbers:
Rick Perry (R) 40%
Chris Bell (D) 17%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn 19%
Kinky Friedman 15%

Yawn.  Poll is sort of stale. (two weeks old)

My analysis:

I said that Bell would gain post-winning the nomination.  I was right. 

As in comparison to last poll, most of Strayhorn's support has migrated to Bell and Friedman, which tells me that 10% of the voters is probably still fairly undecided, as opposed to the other 10% who totally are, giving us around 20% undecided in total.

We'll continue to have to see if either of the other three candidates can get an advantage over the other two and pick up these voters in total, because Perry's 40% isn't really going anywhere barring a catastrophe in his campaign and no one is really close to him in numbers right now considering the division three ways.

Average over the last three polls (January/February/April) is:
Perry - 40%
Strayhorn - 24%
Bell - 15%
Friedman - 12%

[Sam Spade]

It would make the statewide map cool if each of them won a county. And the nationwide map would be more interesting if Perry won in the >30% interval.

A second place map (or better yet, an "ignoring Perry's votes" map) will be highly interesting if this race doesn't go anywhere from here - which seems likely. There's really no reason to assume any one of the three will be seized on as the Stop Perry candidate, although it's not impossible at this point.

Fact is, and I agree with you on the above, the most likely candidate to seize on Stop Perry momentum is Strayhorn, without a doubt.  She has the money unlike Bell and Friedman (Democrats have been contributing to her campaign strongly, not Bell's) and she will have the public pulpit by her position as Comptroller.

The latest drop in this poll to me does not really mean much to her long-term potential in my mind. 

Bell is simply a bad candidate.  Kinky is, for all his entertainment, too far left on social issues.  Along with the "lack of money" issue, they are much less likely to be the Stop Perry candidate.

The key thing to watch out for in the next few months is the school funding debate presently going on in state legislature.  If they can get the bill passed and deliver the cuts in property taxes that have been talked about (Texas currently has projected an $8.2 billion surplus in the budget), I wouldn't be surprised if all incumbents receive a gain in support.

If nothing is passed, there could be potential blowback, which might open up the race for the others.

[Sam Spade]

Will Kinky Friedman win any counties?

Texas has 256 counties, more than any other state in the nation.

Perry is actually fairly strong out in west Texas, where most of the under 10,000 people counties are, but I wouldn't be surprised that if Kinky pulls over 10%, he manages to win some county somewhere.

[Sam Spade]

Strayhorn as turned in her petitions, claiming 223,000 signatures.
Friedman is claiming around 170,000.

45,000 or so is required.  But those signing can't have participated in the Democrat or Republican primaries, the Libertarian caucuses, or have signed the Green Party petition, or have signed the petition of another candidate for the office.  They also have to be registered voters.

Strayhorn had sued the Secretary of State in federal court, trying to get him to order that petitions be checked by sampling, and to accept petitions on the fly.  But the judge refused to order.  The SoS says it will take about 6 weeks to count the signatures.

So if someone signed both petitions, it counts for neither?

That's correct, I'm 99.9% sure.  Though I need to read up Texas election statute, just to be clear.