TX Primary Thread - March 7, 2006

[Sam Spade]

Yes, I know.  It's still about a week and a half away.

But the earliest primaries in the nation, the Texas primaries, are going to be held then and I wanted to create this discussion thread for such.

Governor, Senate, House and Dogcatcher primaries are held on this date and there are three major primaries that I'll be looking at come the 7th.

Any primary runoffs (no candidate gets 50%) will be held in April.

Also, after March 7, Independent candidates have until May 11 to gather the requisite signatures to be on the ballot in November.  For example, in the Governor's race, this means getting 49,000+ signatures of people who did not vote in the primaries or the runoffs.

Let's begin:
1.  Democratic Governor's primary:

Three major candidates: Chris Bell, Bob Gammage and Felix Alvarado

Yes, we know the state of the Texas Democratic Party, but this is still an important primary.

I have not seen any major polls on the primary.  Please post any, if you know of any. 

2.  Democratic Primary (CD-28)

Two major candidates: Ciro Rodriguez and Henry Cuellar (incumbent)

Two years ago in this primary, Henry Cuellar defeated Ciro Rodriguez by 58 votes when a non-opened ballot box was discovered (shades of New Mexico).

Now, Rodriguez is back and running again.  There is no Republican opponent in the race (no Republican backbench in the area), so the winner of the primary is going to be winner of the election.  In 2004, Bush won this CD by roughly 5 points.

This race sort of reminds me of Texas races in the 1950s. 

Cuellar, the incumbent, is a self-proclaimed moderate to conservative Democrat (his voting record ranks as 8th most conservative for Democrats in the House).  He has a long-time relationship with President Bush, whom he served as Secretary of State under when Bush was governor.  He also campaigned for him in 2000 and supported him in 2004.  Cuellar is probably one of the last pro-business Democrats left in the House that I can think of. 

Free trade will not be an issue in the race, however, as both Cuellar and Rodriguez support NAFTA and CAFTA enthusiastically (as does the CD)

Rodriguez, the former incumbent, is a more traditional Democrat (in DC terms).  His voting record while in Congress was roughly to the center of Democrats as a whole, with the usual South Texas rightward trend on free trade and gun control.

The Democratic left has made it a big target to go after Cuellar, who they view as a lackey of Bush, and replace him with the actual "Democrat" Rodriguez.  Should be entertaining.

3.  Republican Primary (CD-22)

Major players: Tom DeLay, Tom Fjetland, Tom Campbell

DeLay will obviously win this race.  Both of his opponents are real zeros.

The question is by how much.  A tighter margin in the primary could indicate major trouble with traditional Republicans (the ones who usually turn out for primaries) and therefore in the general election.
Anyways, any polls and news are welcome for this upcoming election.

[Sam Spade]

Isn't there also a well-known independent (former Republican) candidate running against Delay this year?

Steve Stockman is running as an Independent (to the right of DeLay) in the CD. 

Stockman has actually said that he is actually running against his old nemesis Lampson, not DeLay (Lampson beat him in 1996 or 1998?, I forget when).  Obviously, his candidacy would help Lampson, though, so that really makes no sense when you think about it. 

He'll have to collect some percentage of signatures as well to be on the ballot (though I don't know, jimrtex might)

[Sam Spade]

Out of interest, I wonder how former Democratic Governor Ann Richards would do in Texas these days?

I don't even know if she's still in Texas

Dave

She'd lose.  Sorry. 

She actually got lucky in winning in 1990 by facing an opponent named Clayton Williams, who threw the race away to her and then she proceeded to stupidly throw the race away in 1994 (even though it was going to be tough in winning) by going over the line in personally attacking GWB in a debate.

[Sam Spade]

Any ideas on the El Paso County Judge primaries (specifically the Dem one)?  I doubt anyone here's following it, but you never know.

Boy, you've got me that one.  I don't know whether anyone here comes from the west part of the state.  Maybe WMS might know.

[Sam Spade]

Bumping this for the thread in the other part of the forum.

I did find one Congressional poll on the TX-28 primary race.  It is from the Ciro Rodriguez campaign and has been posted on DailyKos, SwingStateProject, etc..  Usual polling caveats for internal polls apply.

Cuellar 39%
Rodriguez 34%
(Victor) Morales 8%

Was done from February 23 to February 26, among an unnumbered group of RV.

[Sam Spade]

Well, I finally did find a poll on the Texas Gov. race primary between Chris Bell, Bob Gammage and some other candidate I can't name.

The problem is that it's three weeks old and I really don't know what it means.  Anyway, I'm surprised I missed this one earlier, as it includes Governor's race numbers as well.

It's a poll for the Dallas Morning News, but the polling company is in New York.  Large sample though.

Link here.

ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS

If the November general election for governor were being held today and Chris Bell were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Chris Bell: 19%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 16%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

If the election were today, and Bob Gammage were the Democratic nominee, for whom would you vote?
Rick Perry: 36%
Bob Gammage: 17%
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 17%
Kinky Friedman: 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Perry is doing as governor?
Approve: 47%
Disapprove: 38%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Carole Keeton Strayhorn is doing as comptroller?
Approve: 53%
Disapprove: 16%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kinky Friedman, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 15%
Not heard enough: 63%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Bell, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 12%
Unfavorable: 5%
Not heard enough: 80%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Gammage, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 2%
Not heard enough: 89%

What do you think has been Mr. Perry's most important accomplishment as governor (no choices provided)?
None: 20%
Hurricane Katrina/disaster relief: 8%
Other: 8%
Education reform/improvement: 7%
Taxes/tax reform/ reduced spending: 2%
Jobs/economic development: 2%
Highway construction: 1%
Border control: 1%

Which of the following do you think has been Mr. Perry's most important accomplishment as governor?
Hurricane Katrina/disaster relief: 28%
None: 21%
Education reform: 13%
Holding the line on taxes: 9%
Highway construction: 9%
Jobs & economic development: 7%
Other: 1%

ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

If the Democratic Primary for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote?
Chris Bell: 28%
Bob Gammage: 12%
Not sure: 60%

ASKED OF KINKY FRIEDMAN VOTERS

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Chris Bell and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 34%
Chris Bell: 25%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 12%

If the election were today, and the candidates were Rick Perry, Bob Gammage and Carole Keeton Strayhorn, for whom would you vote?
Carole Keeton Strayhorn: 36%
Bob Gammage: 20%
Rick Perry: 18%
Would not vote: 14%

[Sam Spade]

Bumping for the primary today...

This is the Secretary of State's website for unofficial primary results.

http://204.65.107.70/

This is the Secretary of State's website (period)

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/

In Texas, polls close at 7:00 PM CST (8:00 EST).

[Sam Spade]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Chris Bell, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 12%
Unfavorable: 5%
Not heard enough: 80%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Gammage, or haven't you heard enough about him to have an opinion?
Favorable: 6%
Unfavorable: 2%
Not heard enough: 89%

They get more votes than favorable impressions!

Well, I guess when you're choosing between the guy you don't know against the other guy you don't know, you have to pick somebody. 

[Sam Spade]

Just giving this a little bumpity up.  Polls closed about 22 minutes or so ago. 

Turnout is expected to be light statewide, with bumps here and there, probably for the actually important races.
A little minor news from the Houston Chronicle blog:

http://blogs.chron.com/texaspolitics/

Independent candidate Kinky Friedman is confident that either Chris Bell or Bob Gammage will earn the Democratic nomination tonight.

Otherwise, he's resigned that a runoff would seriously harm his campaign by cutting his time to collect 45,540 valid voter signatures in half from the current 60 days.

"If they have a runoff, I'm screwed," Friedman told the Chronicle. "Sixty days seems like a lot, but it's not."

R.G. Ratcliffe
I tend to agree with Kinky here.

[Sam Spade]

What a crappy rule (on the collection of signatures for independent candidates).  Boo on Texas for that and for its insanely early primary.

I guarantee that if either Kinky or Strayhorn does not reach the required signature number by May 11, there will be another lawsuit to contest the rule's legality, much as Ralph Nader did in 2004.

The challenge will be presented under the same three arguments that Nader did:  That the early deadline is unnecessary and discriminatory; that the amount of signatures required is discriminatory; and that the schedule for gathering signatures (60 days for Independents compared to 75 days for third parties) is discriminatory.

And it will probably get nowhere, as it did then.

My opinion is that it the rule is ridiculous.  But it also makes things interesting.

However, the rule has simply been around for quite a long while and I  personally see neither Democrats nor Republicans interested in getting rid of it for the future.

[Sam Spade]

I think that there might be a mistake in the Hidalgo County numbers reporting in the Democrat primary; the numbers they're reporting having voted with only one precinct reporting seem way too high for early voting numbers.

[Sam Spade]

I think that there might be a mistake in the Hidalgo County numbers reporting in the Democrat primary; the numbers they're reporting having voted with only one precinct reporting seem way too high for early voting numbers.

Numbers have gotten more reasonable now.  They had 1 precinct reporting and over 5% turnout, now it's up to 51 precincts (36%) and we're up to 8%-9% turnout.

[Sam Spade]

Bumping this thread up.  I will make my commentary on the big primaries and the smaller state House and Senate races either tonight or tomorrow, when I get the time.

There were a number of interesting things in the smaller races that I'd like to point out for those who really care about Texas politics (all three of us)  .

[Sam Spade]

DeLay got 62%.

Yep. 

The DeLay race is a pure tossup; Lampson has raised money very well (as I expected), but since so much of it has come from out-of-state liberals and Hollywood types, DeLay will play this for all it's worth in this CD which is still 60%-40% Republican (shifting Democrat slowly) and includes a lot of conservative suburban types.  Stockman is, of course, the wildcard, depending on whether he runs or not.

Anyway, I had it in my mind before the primary that he if he broke 60% in this four-way race, he was still much stronger than a lot here might think.  I still hold by that.

A lot can change before the real elections, though.