OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...

[Sam Spade]

55/45 to Schmidt

^^^^^^^^

This would also be my guess also.  If I am wrong, I give about an 80% chance that the margin of victory is higher, 20% that it is lower.

The key counties here are Scioto and Clermont.  Hackett needs to win Scioto by a huge margin (15%-20% at least) and needs to get above at least 40% in Clermont in order to have any chance at victory.

Also to Joe Republic:  If any of this "gain in losing" stuff is going around, it will be if Hackett gets at least above 40%, not 30%.  Even Kerry got 36% in CD-2 last year.

[Sam Spade]

55/45 to Schmidt

^^^^^^^^

This would also be my guess also.  If I am wrong, I give about an 80% chance that the margin of victory is higher, 20% that it is lower.

The key counties here are Scioto and Clermont.  Hackett needs to win Scioto by a huge margin (15%-20% at least) and needs to get above at least 40% in Clermont in order to have any chance at victory.

Also to Joe Republic:  If any of this "gain in losing" stuff is going around, it will be if Hackett gets at least above 40%, not 30%.  Even Kerry got 36% in CD-2 last year.

What about Brown, I think Hackett Could win Brown and do well in Adams. I think he will get less than 40% in Clermont. I have no Idea about Scioto, I also think Hamilton will be 54/46 but not sure who will win.

Brown County voted roughly the same as this District did in the Prez election in 2004 (64%-36%).  I guess you might call it a bellwether county, but it's not exactly the biggest county there.

I don't know the intricacies of Cincinnati suburbs that much, so my knowledge on the part of Hamilton that's within CD-2 is sort of weak.  It's basically the eastern and northeastern parts of the Cincinnati suburbs.  For all involved, here's a map of the CD.

[Sam Spade]

Soo...any exit polls? It's 4:30 pm or so in Ohio now.

I doubt anyone's paying any attention to this race outside of political junkies.  So probably no exit polls.  The election ends at 7:30 PM EST, fyi, so we should see some numbers sometime after that.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone know what turnout is like?

No idea.

[Sam Spade]

We'll probably lose this CD by 20+ in 2006.  Hackett wont be running ladies and gents.  He'll be in Iraq.

Positive thoughts, my friend. This race isn't over yet, anyway.

Hand recount of Clermont County seems to be underway.

Reading from another site that apparently the reason why handcounting is happening in Clermont County is because humidity is screwing with the punchcard readers, by either making the cards stick together or swell so the machine jams.

Hackett ran a good race, excellent in fact.  However, I'm calling this one because of the location of the votes left in the race.

It appears like the GOP voters just stayed home today.  Don't know how much of this is because of Ohio politics or national politics.  You can read into it as much as you want.  

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and yep, I missed the call by a good bit this time.  We ain't all perfect. 

[Sam Spade]

Results are in, Schmidt wins by 4000 votes, which is outside the margin which would trigger a recount, though I wouldn't be surprised if Dems gather up enough money to call one.  With the machines completely dying in clermont, fraud will be cried for weeks to come.

Defarge is correct.  

I'm reading that the margin is 4,004 votes, roughly 51.75%-48.25%.

(59,095 to 55,091)

Forgot to mention: Hackett can get a recount of the race quite easily.  It is beyond the margin for an automatic recount . (one-half of a percentage point triggers automatic recount)

It costs $10 per precinct, or roughly a little over $7,500.

[Sam Spade]

Disappointing. But it was close and really did it in a highly partisan district.

If anything, I would take this to be a really good sign for the Democrats in Ohio for 2006.

I'm even doubling on top of what I said before:  if they can't win the Governor's race in 2006 in Ohio, they don't deserve to ever win Ohio (obviously, the Senate race is tougher, but not impossible).

[Sam Spade]

Turnout for the GOP must have been horrible.

That seems pretty obvious.  

Simply put, Hackett destroyed Schmidt in the rural counties of Scioto, Adams, Pike and Brown, broke even in Hamilton County (which the first results made it look like Schmidt would win by 5% or so).  

Schmidt was only saved by getting enough base votes in exurban Clermont (60%) and Warren Counties to put her over the top.

[Sam Spade]

I will also now up my prediction of a Democrat takeover of the House to roughly 15%-20%, as opposed to the >5% I would have given before tonight.

[Sam Spade]

JEAN SCHMIDT  57,974  52%   
 PAUL HACKETT  54,401  48%

Clermont still not in

Whoa, I was close:

Schmitt- 52.87%
Hackett- 47.13%

Not a bad prediction, I must say.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, gallant effort by Hackett. If it's a victory, and it looks like it is, it feels a bit like an empty victory.

It's sorta like Notre Dame beating Navy by a field goal. Some will insist that Navy was just very enthusiastic. Some will think that maybe Navy will beat Notre Dame next year.

If Taft wants to feel better, he should know that his approval rating won't fall to 10% (but I could be wrong)

Excellent analogy.  Couldn't say it better myself.

[Sam Spade]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

I'd prefer the Democrats rise again in East Texas.

But, that's probably not in the cards either.

Heh.  I remember the times when there used to be voters in East Texas who would rather die than vote Republican.  Times have obviously changed.

[Sam Spade]

Maybe Atlantis will suddenly rise again in Texarkana. Doubtful though.

I'd prefer the Democrats rise again in East Texas.

But, that's probably not in the cards either.

Heh.  I remember the times when there used to be voters in East Texas who would rather die than vote Republican.  Times have obviously changed.

Yeah, those voters are dead.

That's what changed.

Actually a good number of them aren't dead, they're still voting (fellow family members). 

The first Republican they ever voted for was Kay Bailey Hutchinson. 

And a few of them haven't voted Democrat since (of course the Texas Democratic Party has sort of helped that process along).

[Sam Spade]

Dems have a great shot to win the governorship

Yes.

and have a decent shot to beat DeWine.

No.

Agreed.

[Sam Spade]

Before this thread got hijacked with some nonsense that I don't care about, it was fairly amusing to see the reactions of the partisans reading way too much into one special election race.

Honestly, I still don't know what all this race means, whether it means something big, something middling, or whether it means anything at all and neither should anyone else, except for maybe the powers-that-be. (unless maybe we can get our hands on some precinct-by-precinct data and still probably not then)

I have adjusted my predictions slightly in accordance and will wait patiently until the 2005 Gubernatorial elections to make any necessary changes from those races.