What are Obama's odds of reelection/defeat?

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

Have you seen the GOP field? Granted a lot can happen in the next year, but they're the sorriest bunch of losers ever to compete for a major party's nomination. Obama could easily trounce all of them (even more so with Huckabee's exit).

When the circumstances are ripe, the opponent usually doesn't matter much. 

However, you do make a point in this way - if Bush and the whole financial crisis had not occurred a mere three years ago, Obama's chances would be much, much worse, and we would be seeing it in the numbers now.  Normally, Presidents with these types of economies, and an economy that will almost assuredly be getting worse a year from now, have no chance at survival.  But with the former fresh in their minds, voters will also be taking into account whether they want to put a Republican back in the Oval Office, and they are right now anyways.

55-45 against is basically 50-50 at this point in the game - if you feel better with that, then take it.  I'm just very leery of giving anyone with these types of economic circumstances better than even odds, even with those caveats.

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

You really think we are headed for another recession by year's end?  If that is the case, Obama would probably lose even to someone like Gingrich, because that would mean rising unemployment throughout 2012.   I am predicting around 2% growth for 2011 and a slowly falling unemployment rate throughout 2012.  Nobody else seems to be predicting a recession like you are. 

We should see a negative GDP quarter in 4Q 2011 or 1Q 2012 based on current trajectories, input costs, capital spending, inventory replentishment, and the like.  Marty Feldstein said a few months ago that the top of this current cycle was 3Q 2010, which fits in fairly well with this call.

1Q of negative GDP growth is not a recession, as defined by NBER, and I am suspicious that the Fed next year will start trying to pump money into the system again to try and keep the status quo in place (as they did in 1980).  So, I am not calling recession, let me correct my post there.  Don't expect employment to improve, though.

[Sam Spade]

Based upon the approval rating this far out, assuming no strange events, my guess:

approval%                            win%

40                                       <  1
41                                           5
42                                         15
43                                         30
44                                         50
45                                         70
46                                         83
47                                         90
48                                         94
49                                         97
50                                         99
51                                       >99

At this point the President would need to have some severe and not-yet-known weakness as a leader or get entangled in something devastating to lose -- and such would obviously cut his approval rating drastically.


 

Where do you get these numbers from?

Gerald Ford had approvals of near 50% in 1976, yet he still lost. 

Paying attention to pbrower is certain way to lose brain cells.

As I said in some other forum, it's about 55-45 against for now primarily because we're most likely headed back into negative GDP growth by years end, which means recession, but these things really don't mean very much at this point.  Talk to me in 6 months.

You really think we are headed for another recession by year's end?  If that is the case, Obama would probably lose even to someone like Gingrich, because that would mean rising unemployment throughout 2012.   I am predicting around 2% growth for 2011 and a slowly falling unemployment rate throughout 2012.  Nobody else seems to be predicting a recession like you are. 

We should see a negative GDP quarter in 4Q 2011 or 1Q 2012 based on current trajectories, input costs, capital spending, inventory replentishment, and the like.  Marty Feldstein said a few months ago that the top of this current cycle was 3Q 2010, which fits in fairly well with this call.

1Q of negative GDP growth is not a recession, as defined by NBER, and I am suspicious that the Fed next year will start trying to pump money into the system again to try and keep the status quo in place (as they did in 1980).  So, I am not calling recession, let me correct my post there.  Don't expect employment to improve, though.

One quarter of negative GDP growth would certainly feel like a recession and would almost certainly result in a couple months of job losses.  The only time a quarter of negative GDP growth didnt result in monthly job losses was 1956. 

If Feldstein is right, then the top in unemployment should normally occur 6-9 months later, which is, well, now.

Consider that in April, the birth-death adjustment was 175K (which is laughable, but the government tends to do this in April-June period), and the actual job gain was 244K.  In other words, I doubt the gain was much over 150K.  March's numbers looked better than that actually.

Which means that...

Anyway, we shall see.  It's hard to make predictions now, as I initially said, so take this all with a grain of salt.  Except for the GDP call.