Edwards diverted

[Sam Spade]

Interesting...  Sounds eerily familiar to a statement I made last night on another site.

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"Well, I’m still waiting to see if I can find the Sat.-Sun.-Mon. schedules for each candidate.

That’ll certainly tell us where the problems are, where they think things are in play and what states they think they can pick off.

My gut tells me right now that the Kerry campaign strategy will be to try and hold on to the most dangerous tossups: NM, MN, WI, NH and HA (strangely enough I think it is a true tossup, will try and hold through advertising). MI and PA less so because I think Kerry has larger leads here, I’m curious to see how much Kerry campaigns there in the next week; this will probably tell us something.

I think NV and IA are in the same boat right now; I differ from some people here, but I think it’s going to be extremely hard for Kerry to hold on to IA or pick off NV. CO, AR, WV, etc. are probably just long-shots that won’t change unless the race changes.

And then either pickup OH or FL and I really think OH is the best shot.

Under this strategy, if Kerry wins OH, he wins 277-261. If he wins FL, he wins 284-254.

This is a slightly larger lead than normal but it’s very important, because I still think there’s a good chance he could lose any number of those toss-ups, esp. NM, WI or MN.

Simply put, if you see Kerry campaigning in MI or PA after Friday, he’s toast imo."

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Edwards is not Kerry, of course.  We'll see what happens.

[Sam Spade]

I also think Bush might losing a little ground in MO and WV, but that may mean him going from being up 5-6 points to being up 4-5.

The only state that was not being advertised in before (including MO, AR, WV on the Bush side and NJ, HI on the Kerry side) that I see "serious" advertising being placed in right now is HI.

The AR and WV talk in the WaPo today is all about a couple of 527s putting an ad or two there and the Kerry and the DNC campaign talking about placing ads there soon.

At this point in the campaign, "talk is very, very cheap" and I'll only believe it when I see some physical action or campaigning there at which point I will report it.

Right now, it's just talk to me.

[Sam Spade]

Bush is in MI today.   At the Silverdome in Pontiac, MI.

[Sam Spade]

He is also in Vienna OH (near Youngstown), Findlay OH, and Lancaster PA per my thread earlier.

Kerry is in Iowa and Minnesota.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=11393.0

[Sam Spade]

From NRO's Battlegrounders web page:

http://www.nationalreview.com/battleground/battleground.asp

NEW HAMPSHIRE: INTERNAL NUMBERS MUST BE TIGHT [Mike Tuffin 10/27 04:00 PM]

Manchester's WMUR-TV is reporting that Kerry will make one last visit to New Hampshire on Sunday. This would be Kerry's second trip to the state in a week. President Bush will campaign in Manchester and Portsmouth on Friday. New Hampshire offers the fewest electoral votes (4) of any battleground state, and the fact that both candidates are devoting precious time here in the closing days can only mean the campaigns' internal polling shows the race is a toss-up.

[Sam Spade]

More from NRO's The Corner:

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp

A FLORIDA INDICATOR TO WATCH [Rich Lowry]
There's been some talk of Kerry “pulling out” of Florida, which I find hard to believe. Geraghty has discussed this and tried to tamp it down. But here's something to watch. My understanding is that as of yesterday Bush was scheduled to spend all day Monday in Florida, but that may now be up in the air. If Bush doesn't go there Monday, it could be a sign that he has opened up a lead in the state.
Posted at 03:13 PM