IL-Sen. 2016 Thread: Duckworth nearly triples Kirk Q2 fundraising

[Mr. Illini]

Kirk is as responsible for the "gridlock" in Congress as every other Republican Senator.

Yet still popular among IL Dems

[Mr. Illini]

Starting to think that she could clear the field since she seems to have a far head start on the process

[Mr. Illini]

Pros of Duckworth:

-Great story
-Liked by the suburbs (normally Kirk territory)
-Pretty savvy politician
-Already fundraising well
-Beat very unpopular Joe Walsh

Cons of Duckworth:

-Doesn't have downstate advantage that Bustos has
-Not a fantastic orator
-Doesn't have statewide network that Bustos has

I still think Bustos would be the best option, but Duckworth is far and away better than Bill Foster. I like Robin Kelly a lot, but she is weak outside of the city.

Duckworth is likely to receive my primary vote unless Bustos runs.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth announces Monday.

She's really coming out of the gate fast. I maintain that she will clear the field.

[Mr. Illini]

I don't publish ratings but mentally now seeing the Dems get off the ground and people already mobilizing and energized here, I am moving this from Toss Up to Lean D right now.

[Mr. Illini]

This will be an interesting fight, with the result largely dependent on the national mood.

Duckworth seems like a strong candidate for Democrats, especially since she has a compelling story.

It's a small sample set, but when Democrats get a high-profile challenger in a left-leaning state, they do tend to beat moderate Republican incumbents.

Sheldon Whitehouse beat Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island.

Al Franken beat Norm Coleman in Minnesota.

Elizabeth Warren beat Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

Yes it's not looking good for Kirk..but the issue with all of those examples is that they were all in Democratic years.

If the GOP candidate takes back the WH in 2016 it will be interesting to see if Kirk is dragged in as well.

The thing is that

1) We know the Democratic Presidential candidate is going to take Illinois

2) We know that even in a Republican year it is unlikely that the Democrat will receive less than 55% in the state

That means that if Duckworth runs 5 points behind the Democratic Presidential candidate in the state, she still wins.

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth is terrible. I hope she loses the primary and we get someone more competent to take over her House seat.

Why do you think she is terrible?

[Mr. Illini]

Wouldn't surprise me if Duckworth only wins Cook County and still wins...

This is asinine and something that is repeated over and over yet very unlikely to happen.

1) It requires that she underperform Alexi in 2010, which is laughable. That was a GOP wave year and Alexi was a terrible opponent. He won 4 counties.

2) Why do you think that Duckworth is so unpopular? Kirk is a terrible candidate for downstate and Duckworth is just as liked in the suburbs as Kirk is.

I envision Duckworth taking Cook, St. Claire, Jackson, Alexander, Rock Island, Fulton, and contending Lake and Knox. If she does especially well she will have a shot at Calhoun and Whiteside Counties, but that is probably unlikely.

[Mr. Illini]

Wulrfic, I like the analysis and I think it is a good baseline to get an idea of what is going on.

I think it would be more accurate to use Kirk's 2010 map rather than Rauner's or Durbin's maps.

Durbin overperformed downstate because he is from there and that makes a big difference to people down there, which is why you see counties like Pulaski and Gallatin as more Democratic than NW counties like Whitside and Henderson. Duckworth is not as popular as Durbin downstate, although Kirk isn't all that popular down there either.

By the same token, Rauner did very well downstate, and certainly much better than Kirk will do. Quinn was painted as the Chicago machine candidate, and that puts those counties at high margins for Republicans. In reality, St. Claire and Jackson Counties are reliably Democratic and should be assumed as in Duckworth's column, especially with higher turnouts in East STL area. Also, Fulton is very inelastic. So Quinn was a terrible candidate but a high Dem floor there made it close. Yet, in 2010, Fulton was close, but Alexi won St. Claire, Jackson, and Alexander while still losing Fulton.

With Lake, I have a gut feeling that Duckworth is going to contest it, even though it is Kirk's home turf. Both of these candidates are very well-liked in the suburbs. Kirk represented portions of the northern suburbs in the House and his brand of moderate voting is perhaps more subscribed to in that area along the north shore than anywhere else in the country. Kirk has been saying some very partisan things lately that are unlike him, so we will see what impact that has. If Duckworth is nominated, it will be interesting having two candidates from the northern suburbs.

It may be silly to do at this point, but if I were to put a prediction on it today, this is what I would go for. We'll see how my prediction changes over time, assuming Duckworth is even nominated. Yet, my point that Duckworth will a) win more than just Cook and b) if not, she is screwed, stands.

Kirk vs. Duckworth

[Mr. Illini]

Kirk vs. Duckworth

You don't think Duckie will carry Will or Lake Counties? I'd say that with Presidential turnout/coattails, those counties would go at least plurality Dem if Duckworth won. I mean yeah, Kirk's a good fit for them, but I'd guess that they'd be fought to a draw. They have a history of being open to Democrats there.

It's a tough call. I do not think that they would go Dem before any of the counties that I have labeled. That said, they are very likely to vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee, but Kirk is a very good fit for the area, in fact Lake County is in love with Mark Kirk.

So take Lake County in the 2012 Presidential, it voted for Obama 53-45. Now I would agree with analyses that some have made that Lake will go to the 2016 Democrat by a similar margin with the hometown effect having largely worn off in Illinois in 2012.

So let's say Hillary wins Lake County 53-45. For Kirk to take it, he would need to get it to 49-48, and I have him labeled as plurality in Lake on the map. This means he would be running 4 points ahead of the Republican candidate in Lake County.

That is possible. In fact, likely. You will get at least 4% of north suburbanites voting for Hillary Clinton at the top and Mark Kirk underneath.

Lake is Kirk's home area, he represented half the county in Congress, and he is a staple there. I am originally from the area, and it is a very moderate Republican area and many people there think the GOP has gone too far to the right and put him up on a pedestal as the "last sane Republican." Take issue with it all you want, but that's how it is.

Thinking more about it, Duckworth would probably perform better in Will than in Lake, even though Lake is the one that is increasingly looking even more Democratic. Duckworth certainly has a shot in either, but so does Kirk. It will be interesting to see how they behave in 2016 at all levels, just like it was interesting to see how they performed in 2014.

[Mr. Illini]

Illinois will not interpret it as Kirk being a moderate, just him not being an Evangelical nut, which we already knew he was not.

[Mr. Illini]

My guess is Bustos is holding out until 2020, if Durbin retires (as I think he will).

D-trip no doubt also wants her in IL-17 for as long as possible as well. She's a great fit for the area and that is a district that, while it is D+8, has potential to be elastic. Don't want Bobby Schilling getting any more ideas.

She'll be a great person to step in when Durbin retires.

[Mr. Illini]

Ex-NFL LB and current State Sen. Napoleon Harris (D-Flossmoor) keeping options open

http://atr.rollcall.com/ex-nfl-linebacker-considering-illinois-senate-bid/

Bill Daley, African-American leaders urging Urban League President Andrea Zopp (D-Chicago) to run

http://chicago.suntimes.com/news/7/71/486504/sneed-urban-league-ceo-andrea-zopp-urged-run-kirks-seat

[Mr. Illini]

Harris or Zopp will be my preferred choice over Duckworth.

They are weaker against Kirk and would cost primary money.

I would vote for Duckworth regardless.

[Mr. Illini]

Why anyone would support a member of the CPS board at this point is beyond me

Duckworth is endorsed early on

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

Funnily enough, this race would be easily winnable for Kirk in a midterm year and he would be considered the favorite (Tilt R/Leans R). Illinois is not New York. It's the fact that 2016 will be a Presidential year that is hurting Kirk.

Please name for me the last election in which a Senate election in Illinois was considered "easily winnable" for the Republicans.

Or a Presidential.

Or a Gubernatorial, which you would have to go back to Jim Edgar for.

Illinois is apparently the new fools gold as the GOP gets cocky about Rauner's victory.

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call: Tilt D

http://blogs.rollcall.com/rothenblog/mark-kirk-race-rating-illinois-senate/?dcz

LOL at Johnson being less vulnerable than Kirk in their ratings.

It's Illinois

Funnily enough, this race would be easily winnable for Kirk in a midterm year and he would be considered the favorite (Tilt R/Leans R). Illinois is not New York. It's the fact that 2016 will be a Presidential year that is hurting Kirk.

Please name for me the last election in which a Senate election in Illinois was considered "easily winnable" for the Republicans.

Or a Presidential.

Or a Gubernatorial, which you would have to go back to Jim Edgar for.

Illinois is apparently the new fools gold as the GOP gets cocky about Rauner's victory.

Exaggerated a bit there; it may not be easily winnable but Kirk would still be the favorite if the election was held in a midterm year. I'm convinced of that. Like I said before, Illinois may be a blue state, but it is not as unwinnable for Republicans as NY, CA and yes, even MI. Dick Durbin ran as a popular incumbent Democrat in 2014 and still underperformed by quite a bit. Jim Oberweis didn't even run a campaign and still won 4 of the 5 collar counties around Chicago.

Further confirming the delusion over the meaning of ILGOP's circus victory in 2014.

Yes, Michigan is more winnable for Republicans than Illinois is. Yes, Peters did very well. Yes, so did Snyder. No, 2014 isn't the end-all-be-all anyway, so who cares...

[Mr. Illini]

Dick move, Durbin. I thought he and Kirk were pals

Did you really think he'd endorse a Rpeublican?

...

No, but you'd think that he'd at least stay neutral

You can be friends with people on the other side of the aisle while still endorsing their opponent. Especially if you're friends with their opponent as well, and she is on your side.

[Mr. Illini]

(And no, this does not change the fact that I endorse him for reelection. Chicagoland democrats are among the worst in the party.)

Your attempt to tie Duckworth to the machine is worthy of a comms spot with ILGOP - expect the same baseless claims to be made in the coming months on the big stage

[Mr. Illini]

Duckworth isnt an average Dem, like Foster, she is from greater Chicagoland, suburbs. That makes her a better fit as a candudate😍

Foster is also from the suburbs, but I understand what you are saying. Duckworth is very well known and popular in the suburbs, which makes her the perfect pick to go against Kirk, whose ace in the whole has always seemed that he could rely on solid wins in the suburbs, something few Republicans can do these days. Duckworth will make the area competitive.

[Mr. Illini]

It is apparent, however, that Illinois Democrats are not united behind Tammy Duckworth, and in fact, more candidates are thinking of entering the race. The lack of confidence in Duckworth speaks volumes.

Who is considering entering?

[Mr. Illini]

CoC may put money behind Zopp to protect Kirk

http://capitolfax.com/2015/08/27/us-chamber-plots-zopp-support-10th-cd-intervention/

Thuggery.

[Mr. Illini]

Tammy Duckworth will vote in favor of the Iran Deal.

Excellent news!

For Democratic turnout? Maybe.

The fact of the matter is if Kirk uses language like Flake and Manchin on the deal, and Duckworth seems comparatively greatly supportive, then she could start losing Democratic-leaning independents.

She's got a pretty solid team behind her (the nature of needing to turn this blue state red seat back to blue) that I am sure is very calculated on things like this. They won't have her crusading for the deal if they decide that it isn't the right move.