Illinois state candidates

[Mr. Illini]

Topinka v. Simon is an interesting one. I personally cannot believe that Topinka is still involved in state politics after the corruption that she has been accused of as well as serving under Ryan, but it is Illinois after all. I wonder if Simon will lose popularity since she was the Lt. Governor under a very unpopular Governor. Also will be interesting to see how Topinka's very outspoken support of the marriage equality bill that passed will impact her candidacy (although I guess probably not much since ILGOP didn't put up a primary challenger). Topinka likely has the advantage in name recognition as well.

Governor is going to be such a mess. Illinoisans really don't like Quinn but I would say that they will plug their noses and vote for him against anyone of the Republicans except for Rutherford, who I think could beat Quinn.

Rutherford is a great candidate in that he is well liked downstate (being from there) as well as in the suburbs (they like moderates) and even relatively liked in the city (he performed far better there in the Treasurer race than most Republicans would). He is socially liberal (outspoken in favor of civil unions when that bill was in Springfield, didn't come out in favor of the marriage equality bill to save him self in the Governor's race, but kept saying we need a more tolerant and open-minded GOP) and willing to work with fiscal liberals and the unions while still being a principled fiscal conservative (which the GOP hates him for, of course, because anyone who even talks to the unions is shunned (which is one reason why they always lose)).

If Bill Brady is nominated he will lose by a lot. If Republicans ever want to win in this state they have to capture the suburbs, as downstate alone cannot outweigh 80-20 Democrat performances in Chicago on their own (they could but it is near impossible). The suburbs will not be turning out for a socially conservative fiscal hawk from downstate who has made offensive comments about gay people and who rails against Chicago's very existence at every chance he gets. In fact, they might even turn out strong for Quinn. Tea Party Republicans just aren't popular in the suburbs.

Kirk Dillard is a boring candidate IMO. He is from DuPage where I understand he is very popular, giving him an advantage in the western suburbs. He just won't excite people outside of DuPage, though. He is sort of a Mitt Romney-style candidate. A semi-moderate, suburban wealthy Republican who people think of as an alright guy but unrelateable.

Bruce Rauner is such an interesting candidate, IMO.  He is loved by the Tea Party on certain fiscal issues where he is very conservative and also for not taking money from unions and at the same time supports increased education spending and hangs out with Rahm Emanuel. I think he is a candidate that could excite people in a state like Iowa or Wisconsin where Democrats are willing to give someone that they don't agree with a vote because they are an exciting candidate and are a great leader, but in Illinois Democrats will, again, plug their nose and vote for Quinn. This is probably a good thing because Rauner would likely be as tough on the unions as Scott Walker was, and if that caused such chaos in Wisconsin imagine what it would do in this state, which is even more unionized and even more liberal.

My early calls:

Primary:

Quinn (D)
Brady (R)

Vallas (D)
Rodriguez (R)

Madigan (D)
Schimpf (R)

White (D)
Webster (R)

Topinka (R)
Simon (D)

Cross (R)
Frerichs (D)

General:

Quinn (D)
Vallas (D)
Madigan (D)
White (D)
Topinka (R)
Frerichs (D)

[Mr. Illini]

Supposedly none of the main four Republican candidates for governor will try to repeal gay marriage now that it's law.

The only one I could have seen doing so would be Brady, as he is very socially conservative and that has often defined him (looks like he is trying to change that). Dillard is a social conservative, but he has never put a lot of emphasis on it.

I could have seen Rutherford and Rauner actually signing the legislation to legalize it, so obviously I would not expect an effort to repeal it from them.