I wonder if Finkenauer would win even two counties against Grassley. She'd carry Johnson, but that might be it.
If so, then she would replicate the performance of Grassley's last two opponents (Roxanne Conlin and Patty Judge) who only won Johnson County in 2010 and 2016.
Right.
Anyway, on second thought, Finkenauer would probably also be favored in Polk and Story Counties, and maybe Linn as well. Due to increased polarization, Grassley’s victory could easily be held to under 20 points this time. Or maybe not, if it’s an especially good year for GOP.
