Swings in 2008

[DanielX]

Swing states will be mostly like 2004, i think. However, some incremental changes will occur. Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas and West Virginia will likely solidify for the Republicans, unless a centrist Midwestern or Western Democrat runs. Wisconsin is going to be close, good chance for swing-over. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be as close as 2004, if not closer on both sides. New Jersey won't be a swing state except if the Republicans win fairly big. New Hampshire's still in swing. A popular and/or populist Republican could bring Minnesota and Michigan into play, else they largely stay Democrat. Florida is going to depend on the candidate - i think Republicans have ordinarily a slight edge there. The Pacific Northwest is going to stay Democrat, unless those folks in east Washington decide to secede, in which case the new state will be heavily Republican and the remnant heavily Democrat.

The real area to look at? The Southwest. Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are going to be the most crucial, Utah and California are foregone conclusions and Arizona is likely to stay Republican.