Swings in 2008

[nclib]

If the national popular vote in 2008 is similar to 2004, which states would swing Democratic and which would swing Republican...

For a start, NY-NJ-CT would be more Democratic than in 2004 because of the 9-11 factor.

[RJ]

I think the whole entire southwest could swing democratic. That area will be a battleground for a long time, but Colorado in particular could swing in favor of the democrats sooner than later. Think about it: Washington has been established as a liberal state thanks to the Seattle area throwing off the balance. Illinois is now a democratic stronghold thanks to Chicago. Colorado has Denver. See a possible pattern? Arizona could also fit into the mix, but that could depend on which end Republicans come out on this border security business down there.

To be fair, Wisconsin and Minnesota, both traditionally democratic states, could start leaning more Republican. I'd like to see if these states lean heavily back in the direction of the Democrats with a non-Northeasterner on the ticket. I have to wonder if the reason the vote in those states has gotten closer in recent elections is because the last candidate did not connect with the democratic base in those states or if the rural community is devalueing its roots and trending Republican. This would be hard to tell if someone like Fiengold were on the ticket. Just a couple of ideas...

[Ebowed]

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa will be in play like never before.  Wisconsin may go Republican soon.

Minneosta had better not go anywhere.  They must stay true to their Hubert Humphrey / Walter Mondale Minnesotan roots.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota's Republican trend was always overrated. We have a Republican governor and senator but we've had plenty in the past. It was close in 2000 and fairly close last year but compared to previous elections you have to take into account that in 1964, 1968, 1976, 1980 and 1984 a Minnesotan was on the ticket. 1988 of course had the midwest factor where Dukakis did great regionwide, and the fact that Bush's biggest selling point was being Reagan's VP, which obviously wouldn't work in the only state Reagan never carried. Overall there was not that much movement.

But we certainly aren't trending Republican now since last election the GOP lost 13 state House seats.

[muon2]

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa will be in play like never before.  Wisconsin may go Republican soon.

I'm not sure I understand this statement. NM and IA have been tightly contested swing states for some time. How can they be more "in play" than they have been recently?

[Ebowed]

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa will be in play like never before.  Wisconsin may go Republican soon.

I'm not sure I understand this statement. NM and IA have been tightly contested swing states for some time. How can they be more "in play" than they have been recently?

Because a lot of Democrats (like myself) took them for granted in 2004, despite the fact that Kerry and Bush campaigned heavily in both.  That's going to change.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trends=Bullsh**t

George W Bush will not be a candidate in 2008. Neither will John Kerry (if he runs he'll lose in the primary)

[DanielX]

Swing states will be mostly like 2004, i think. However, some incremental changes will occur. Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Iowa, Arkansas and West Virginia will likely solidify for the Republicans, unless a centrist Midwestern or Western Democrat runs. Wisconsin is going to be close, good chance for swing-over. Ohio and Pennsylvania will be as close as 2004, if not closer on both sides. New Jersey won't be a swing state except if the Republicans win fairly big. New Hampshire's still in swing. A popular and/or populist Republican could bring Minnesota and Michigan into play, else they largely stay Democrat. Florida is going to depend on the candidate - i think Republicans have ordinarily a slight edge there. The Pacific Northwest is going to stay Democrat, unless those folks in east Washington decide to secede, in which case the new state will be heavily Republican and the remnant heavily Democrat.

The real area to look at? The Southwest. Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico are going to be the most crucial, Utah and California are foregone conclusions and Arizona is likely to stay Republican.

[zorkpolitics]

First swing states only have meaning if the national popular vote is close  % between the candidates.  Looking ahead, I think this is highly likely for 2008.

Barring a state favorite son, there will be fewer swing states in 2008.
Gone are WA, OR, MI, ME all too Democratic to swing.
Gone are MO, LA, AR, TN, WV, VA, NC, FL all too Republican to swing.
PA and MN don't matter, if they go Republican its a blow out Republican victory, if they stay Democratic, they aren't needed for a Republican to win.

That leaves OH, IA, WI in the midwest, NV, NM, CO in the southwest, and maybe NH in New England.
Who ever gets 39 out of their 60 EVs from these 7 states wins.

[nclib]

Texas will probably be less Republican than in 2004 due to the home state factor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Amazing how you all know who the candidates will be isn't it?

[Akno21]

The better questions is what state is the next swing state, that was not very competitive in 2004.

Obviously it depends on the candidates, but with the right combination for the Democrats Colorado will be a major swing state, and the Republicans best chance will be Michigan.

[RJ]

Gone are WA, OR, MI, ME all too Democratic to swing.
Gone are MO, LA, AR, TN, WV, VA, NC, FL all too Republican to swing.

That leaves OH, IA, WI in the midwest, NV, NM, CO in the southwest, and maybe NH in New England.

I'm not exactly sold on AR, MO, WV or even FL. I think in their most natural state with no influence from campaigning they're no more Republican than, say, OH. I also wouldn't give up on MI or ME if I were the GOP. They've made some strides there in recent years as they have with WI and MN in my opinion. Those states are no more liberal than say PA from a national perspective.

Of course, all this is speculative and depends entirely on what the next two candidates look like...

[Cashcow]

The better questions is what state is the next swing state, that was not very competitive in 2004.

Obviously it depends on the candidates, but with the right combination for the Democrats Colorado will be a major swing state, and the Republicans best chance will be Michigan.

I completely disagree. Wayne County is liberal as ever, with more and more Muslim immigrants flooding in. The Detroit suburbs are also trending Democrat. The only reason you saw such a close race in 2004 was due to a terrible candidate.

Minnesota, however, will be close.

[phk]

The better questions is what state is the next swing state, that was not very competitive in 2004.

Obviously it depends on the candidates, but with the right combination for the Democrats Colorado will be a major swing state, and the Republicans best chance will be Michigan.

I completely disagree. Wayne County is liberal as ever, with more and more Muslim immigrants flooding in. The Detroit suburbs are also trending Democrat. The only reason you saw such a close race in 2004 was due to a terrible candidate.

Minnesota, however, will be close.

Muslims aren't liberal. Thier both socially and economically conservative.

In normal circumstances they should be 65-35 GOP.

[Cashcow]

The better questions is what state is the next swing state, that was not very competitive in 2004.

Obviously it depends on the candidates, but with the right combination for the Democrats Colorado will be a major swing state, and the Republicans best chance will be Michigan.

I completely disagree. Wayne County is liberal as ever, with more and more Muslim immigrants flooding in. The Detroit suburbs are also trending Democrat. The only reason you saw such a close race in 2004 was due to a terrible candidate.

Minnesota, however, will be close.

Muslims aren't liberal. Thier both socially and economically conservative.

In normal circumstances they should be 65-35 GOP.

I'm fairly sure that they aided Kerry's Michigan vote.

[phk]

The better questions is what state is the next swing state, that was not very competitive in 2004.

Obviously it depends on the candidates, but with the right combination for the Democrats Colorado will be a major swing state, and the Republicans best chance will be Michigan.

I completely disagree. Wayne County is liberal as ever, with more and more Muslim immigrants flooding in. The Detroit suburbs are also trending Democrat. The only reason you saw such a close race in 2004 was due to a terrible candidate.

Minnesota, however, will be close.

Muslims aren't liberal. Thier both socially and economically conservative.

In normal circumstances they should be 65-35 GOP.

I'm fairly sure that they aided Kerry's Michigan vote.

They didn't aid Gore's Michigan vote.

If it wasn't for Iraq and War on Terror, Patriot Act drama they'd still vote for Bush.

Wisconsin would have swung in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota, however, will be close.

any Republican trends in our state have stopped. Not only did Kerry significantly improve among Gore, but the GOP lost 13 State House seats.

Furthermore, both Kerry and Gore were very poor candidates as far as Minnesota's concerned. We like populists or people with the charisma of Clinton, not boring generic liberals. Any candidate stronger than Kerry will easily win Minnesota.

[Smash255]

North East region will become more DEM, NH will move from swing to lean DEM,
VA could go into the lean or even swing cetegory (IE Warner on the ticket)
WV  -  hard to say depends on candidate, and how campaign is run, if Dems run more on economics WV goes back to a swing state
 NC,SC,GA,TN.KY,LA all solidfy as Republican
AR & MO probably moves more Republican, but could trend back to a lean if a southerner runs or economics is pushed


West Coast Stay Dem, WA & OR swing no more

Plains & Rockies minus Colorado stay GOP





Swing states  Florida (Bush influence gone moves back to center, but edge to GOP) Ohio (will remain a swing for awhile still edge to GOP though), Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, PA, MI, MN, WI  (Colorado continues its move leftward,WI, MI & MN could trend back to the left depending on the candidate Feingold will make all 3 lean Dem, but a bad candidate could turn all 3 the other way along as the GOP candidate isn't far right), PA is swing that leans DEM, will depend on candidate

[Gustaf]

Muslims are fairly likely o lean Democrat considering war on terror and all. Keep in mind however that the vast majority of American Muslims are black and the vast majority of American Arabs are Christian. Just so you know.

Seriously, if the candidates are similar to this time I expect little movement. States won by Kerry that will be battlegorunds are PA and WI, on the other side I see NV, CO, IA, FL, OH. That gives a base-line of 223 R EVs and 221 D EVs. WIthout a major land-slide for one side or a significant change in the platforms from this election that's how I expect it to turn-out.