Irish Election Results Thread

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Enda welcomes the "biggest endorsement" of FG in the history of the party.

FG 2011: 36.1%
FG 1982: 37.3%

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Despite taking 23.6% of the FPV in Cork SW, FF will not get a seat.
Very strong anti-FF transfering looks like making a Labour gain.

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Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).

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Susan O'Keefe's (Lab) transfers in Sligo-N Leitrim looks like its decided that constituency allowing Colreavy (SF) to take the final seat instead of Scanlon (FF).

I'm very glad Mr Scanlon is not being returned

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Cavan-Monaghan very tight. Looking like FG will pick up 3. Kathryn Reilly (SF) has been close behind them for many counts now, but seems unable to close the gap.

Margaret Conlon's (FF) distribution and the inevitable ensuing distibution of the Brendan Smith (FF) surplus that that distribution will create - will decide things. That those votes are much more Monaghan than Cavan in origin, will likely count against Reilly.

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Fifty-seven seats left and Sinn Fein still leads Fianna Fail 11-10. With obviously efficient anti-Fianna Fail transfers in most constituencies, I'm starting to think 20 seats may be in the upper range of possibilities for them.

I have them at 22 still, but yes it could conceivably dip below 20.

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Will the counting be stopped any time soon for the night?

It's a matter for the discretion of the returning officer of each constituency.

Counting is still continuing in:
Cavan-Monaghan
Cork NC
Dublin NE
Dublin SC
Longford-Westmeath
Mayo
Sligo-N Leitrim
Waterford

Everywhere else is either complete or adjourned until morning.

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And having said that, the count is now complete in Dublin NE

Though Sligo-N Leitrim is merely formality at this stage, as is Mayo and Dublin SC.

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Shut-out of FF in Sligo-N Leitrim confirmed, despite taking 22% of the vote - in a constituency with a 25% quota.

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Are surpluses not transfered in Irish STV?

They are yes.
They are distibuted where there is sufficient surpus ballots to save the next to be exluded candidate.

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Who said the PDs were dead?
5 have been or will be elected this time out... more than in 2007.

Noel Grealish (i-Galway W)
Ciaran Cannon (FG-Galway E)
Mary Mitchell O’Connor (FG-Dún Laoighaire)
Peter Mathews (FG-Dublin S)
Derek Keating (FG-Dublin MW)

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Critical count in Waterford now.

SF's David Cullinane's transfers (6,298) could decide whether John Halligan (i, formerly The Workers' Party) can overhaul the 835 gap to Brendan Kenneally (FF).

Halligan's victory is one of the coolest things of the night.

Nobody saw that one coming.

Also, is Colm Keaveney (Labour) an actual transfermagnet? More than doubled his tally so far, with more to come, and by now more than 50% likely to nick a seat imho.

And yet might not make it. That could be very close with Broderick.

Another person to mention is Robert Troy (FF-Longford & Westmeath). An FF freshman, beating the FF incumbents to salvage the party a seat. Maybe FF could have done a teeny bit better if they'd run more fresh faces elsewhere?

Maybe, maybe not. Fresh faces elsewhere didn't necessarily work out for them either.

I know Troy's brother. The reception he picked up on the doorsteps was no better than any other FF candidate got - so I imagine they'll be as surprised as anyone by the result.

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I suppose counts today - and especially from tomorrow on - function on less personnel than yesterday night? Which would also explain the tales of legendary counts going on for up to ten days?

Indeed so.

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Not a good election for Members of the Government…

Brian Cowen, Taoiseach
Mary Coughlan, Tánaiste & Minister for Education
Brian Lenihan, Minister for Finance
Éamon Ó Cuív, Minister for Social Protection
Mary Hanafin, Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport
Brendan Smith, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
Pat Carey, Minister for Community, Equality and Gaeltacht Affairs


Nor for the Junior Ministers...

John Curran, Chief Whip
Barry Andrews, MoS for Children
Dick Roche, MoS for European Affairs
Peter Power, MoS for Overseas Development
Martin Mansergh, MoS for Office of Public Works and the Arts
Billy Kelleher, MoS for Trade and Commerce
Dara Calleary, MoS for Public Service and Labour Affairs
John Malony, MoS for Disability and Mental Health issues
Seán Connick, MoS for Fisheries and Forestry
Conor Lenihan, MoS for Science and Natural Resources
Michael Finneran, MoS for Housing and Local Services
Áine Brady, MoS for Older People and Social Services
Seán Haughey, MoS for Lifelong Learning


Elected
Not Elected
Didn't Run

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From having a seat in every constituency in every election since 1932, FF today find themselves without Dáil seats in 25 constituencies.

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Two Members of the European Parliament were elected to the Dáil.

Under the system in place, they each submitted lists of substitutes before they were elected.

Joe Higgins (ULA-Dub W) will be replaced by his #2 substitute, Cllr. Ruth Coppinger. (His #1 replacement, Clare Daly was elected in Dublin N. Coppinger wasn't a candidate in the election.)

Alan Kelly (Lab-Tipp N) will also be replaced by his #2 substitute, Senator Phil Prendergast. (His #1 replacement, Arthur Spring was elected in Kerry N; Prendergast failed to get elected in Tipp S).

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Dick Roche has called in the laywers to help his recount cause in Wicklow, where he was originally eliminated as being 3 votes behind his running-mate on Count 13.

RTÉ report that they understand the gap has widened to 5; The Irish Times reports that Roche claims the gap has fallen to 2. I know who I believe.

Roche seems to be holding out hope that if he surpasses Fitzgerald he could still get elected, which I find hard to believe. Unless Joe Behan's transfers prove remarkably friendly to whichever FF candidate is standing, it's another constituency which will return a FF wipeout.

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FTR, the state of play right now is that 40 constituency counts are complete.
3 are undergoing re-counts.

The recounts are going on in Wicklow, Laois-Offaly and Galway W.

154 of 166 seats are allocated (70-36-18-13-5-12).


A meeting between Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore is scheduled this afternoon to discuss coalition negotiations. Such a coalition would have around a 60-seat majority, the largest absolute majority in the history of the State.

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42/43 constituencies complete.

Galway West has a full count - but with the final seat determined by a margin of 17 votes in favour of FG, the trailing candidate Catherine Connolly (i, formerly Labour) has sought and been granted a re-count.

That won't begin until late this afternoon.

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Recount in Galway over - Kyne's 17 vote lead was maintained - so that concludes the counting.
The overall result:

	2011	2007
Fine Gael	76	51
Labour	37	20
Fianna Fáil	20	77
Sinn Féin	14	4
United Left	5
Independents	14	5
Green		6
PD		2