2013 Elections in Germany

[njwes]

If the FDP doesn't make it, as seems likely at this point, I'd imagine it'd be frustrating for the CDU; 2 or 3% of good right-wing votes wasted!

[njwes]

FDP vote holding up surprisingly well in superposh urban precincts. Left holding up much much better in the city than in rural parts of the state.

Here's a precinct Al may remember... 441 08, the Platen estate

CDU 84 17,3 %
SPD 218 44,9 %
FDP 5 1,0 %
Greens 58 12,0 %
Left 84 17,3 %
Pirate 12 2,5 %
AfD 17 3,5 %

How come FDP is doing so miserably? Isn't they supposed to be the Liberal Party? Or have they become more far right? Are they considered to the right of CDU? I read somewhere that they were regarded as the (big) business party. Which surprised me as I thought that would be CDU? And normally liberal parties, or at least the European style social liberal parties, tend to be small business parties, not advocating the needs of big businesses, as that's the aim of the conservative parties, and to a lesser extent, the social democratic parties.

Or is the reason simply that their party leader is extremely unpopular? And why would that be? Does he simply lack any kind of charisma? Or is it his policy positions that are the problem?

I'm glad to see The Greens holding up fairly well.

Let me clarify this for you: The German FDP is not a social liberal party like Venstre in Norway. It's an economic liberal party. Well, the FDP actually used to be a social liberal party in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago. If you asked me what Norwegian party is most similar to the German FDP, I'd say DLF (the one that was founded in 1992), though the FDP is more moderate and not generally sceptical about the EU. I'm glad they're gone now.

So what is/has been their reason for existence the last couple decades? Were they filling a political niche not reasonably covered by the CDU?

[njwes]

So, ideologically the parties from the FDP and further to the right (all the way to the NDP) won about 52% of the vote, and get slightly under 50% of the seats, all in one party of course.  Not a huge distortion by any means, but clearly a majority of voters did not vote for left leaning parties and they have a tiny majority of the seats.

Left/right is a most arbitrary and simplicistic and therefore meaningless categorization in this context.

The FDP had a federal chairman of Vietnamese descent for the past few years. If they had the power to do so, the NPD would strip him of his citizenship and deport him to Vietnam.

These are so diametrically opposed views of not only ideology but also reality and human dignity that it doesn't make really make much sense to put FDP and NPD in one category and SPD and Greens in another. On the contrary, SPD, Greens, and FDP belong in one category, and the NPD in an entirely different one.

Well that touched a nerve... How bout you just forget about the NDP; they only go ~1.4%. Even excluding them, "rob in cal" isn't far off in his assertion

[njwes]

Sächsische Schweiz is such a sh**thole..

CDU 46.0%
Left 17.1%
SPD 10.9%
AfD 7.9%
NPD 5.1%
Greens 3.6%
Free Voters 3.2%
FDP 3.2%

With that attitude surely the Left will be back in power in no time!  

[njwes]

First and Second Vote results.

Quite a few SPD -> CDU changes between the first and second map. I suppose this is likely due to SPD voters going with Die Linke or the Greens on the second vote?

[njwes]

Somewhat off-topic but does anybody happen to know of or have a link to a good article (academic or otherwise) that explains the historical/political reasons that in Europe generally traditional Social Democratic parties have experienced a collapse in their support, while Green parties have seen a concomitant rise in support, sucking away former soc dem voters?

[njwes]

that might come across as slightly bad tempered. Not the intention.

Thanks for the summary, and no worries! I figured it was somewhere on these boards but I really wasn't sure where to look. Your explanation is really helpful and makes a lot of sense.

As for the Green parties vs. the Social Democratic parties, I didn't necessarily assume there was a direct, explicit connection between their development; it just seemed to me (and it may have been an incorrect supposition) that in the last 15 years or so in many European countries, the Green vote has increased by quite a lot and the Soc Dem vote has decreased by quite a lot. Given some shared values, I thought it seemed possible the Greens had soaked up some of those dissatisfied voters on the left.