2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

TPP KP media post Prez debate poll

DPP Lai      30.3(-1.2)
TPP Ko       26.7 (-0.5)
KMT Hou    25.2 (-0.6)


The DPP leaked internal has it at
DPP Lai     37.8
KMT Hou   29.5
TPP Ko      26.8

The TPP and DPP internals are similar in that they both have TPP at a much higher level than other public polls.  Of course, both DPP and TPP have a strategic imperative to prevent TPP->KMT tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Latest Formosa Times poll - DPP Lai lead fairly steady at 3.5-4 range

DPP Lai    37.3
KMT Hou  33.4
TPP Ko     17.7



Will vote for the opposition candidate who is polling the highest
Yes       42.9
No        48.2

This number is a proxy for the cap of the KMT Hou vote in case of last-minute tactical voting.  It is surging to its highest level yet.  In that sense, this index is positive for KMT Hou.  This number has to be around 44 or higher for KMT Hou to have a chance.

[jaichind]

The way to look at TVBS poll is that they lean Blue but also overweight cell/youth.  These two factors tend to cancel each other out in terms of DPP and KMT support but will overestimate TPP.

The way to look at Formosa Times polls is that they lean Green but also underweight cell/youth.  These two factors tend to cancel each other out for KMT but will overestimate DPP and underestimate TPP.

[jaichind]

The shift of the college-educated on ROC from lean KMT to lean DPP around the 2016 period is related to the nature of the PRC technology position shift upward in the last 30 years.

PRC used to be far behind ROC in terms of industrial technology level so the higher educated on ROC benefit from economic integration while those with low education lose in such a process.  But by the mid to late 2010s, the PRC's surge upward in the technology ladder shifted so the PRC and ROC were competing head to head in the advanced industry so the college-educated ROC losses by ROC economic integration with ROC.  This dynamic is the driver of the change in voting behavior on the ROC.

The ROK-PRC trade balance tells the same story.  Until the mid-2010s the ROK would provide key high-tech parts for PRC industrial production which would drive a high PRC trade deficit against the ROK.  This started to change in the mid-2010s when the PRC industry moved upstream to eventually compete head-to-head with the ROK which led to a dramatic fall in the trade deficit PRC against the ROK.


The same dynamic should be in play between the PRC and ROC but for political reasons, the PRC has de facto terms, allowing ROC to put up trade barriers against advanced PRC products against WTO rules.   As a result the PRC still has a large trade deficit with ROC.   If DPP Lai wins I think the PRC will pretty much go to the WTO and force ROC to remove these import barriers or lose access to the PRC market and the ROC trade surplus with PRC will come crashing down just like PRC-ROK trade balance.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3245816/mainland-china-suspends-tariff-cuts-12-taiwanese-imports-january-response-discriminatory-measures

"Mainland China sends ‘early warning’ ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election by suspending tariff cuts"

If DPP Lai wins then I suspect the entire EFCA framework will be removed by the PRC and the ROC trade surplus from PRC will mostly disappear just like the ROK trade surplus with PRC.

[jaichind]

DPP Lai's "illegal" house issue is turning into a meme

Various ROC map apps now have this house named 賴皮寮 or "Shameless shack"
The word for shameless "賴皮" starts with the word "賴" or DPP Lai's last name

Online everyone is referring to this "illegal" house as 賴皮寮 or "Shameless shack"

The core issue here is one of crisis management.  If when this story broke a couple of months ago DPP Lai just said "yes, this house violates zoning laws.  We will tears down the house and pay back taxes owned on this house" that would been the end of it.  But DPP Lai insisted the the house is legal and then started an entire sympathy campaign about how this house represented his memories of his dead father who died the same year DPP Lai was born.  Of course that logic makes no sense since this current house was built in 2003 when DPP Lai was already MP.

[jaichind]

Wikipedia normalized polling curve

DPP Lai   40.5
KMT Hou 38.0
TPP Ko    21.5

Most Southern underground punters seem to have breakeven at DPP Lai +4%-5%.  Southern underground punters tend to overestimate the incumbent, especially the DPP by a couple of points so the two data points are fairly consistent. 

[jaichind]

It seems this Bloomberg interview of DPP Lai from August was done in the now famous "illegal" house AKA 賴皮寮 or "Shameless Shack"

https://youtu.be/FkI9OMs7tWY

Here is some pro-DPP media video talking about the interview  showing the Bloomberg reporter entering into 賴皮寮 or "Shameless Shack" and talking to DPP Lai in the courtyard outside the house

https://youtu.be/eo9Z73KH3k8
https://youtu.be/YKNKaHeVT-0

A look inside the house seems to blow up DPP Lai's narrative that this house has sentimental value to him as it reminded him of his deceased father who died in a mining accident the year he was born and the poverty he experienced growing up.  

His personal experience is real but this re-built house that was built in 2003 seems nothing like a house of the struggling household of family of a deceased miner.

If I had to guess what this is really about is Feng Sui.  In Chinese folklore beliefs, one's birthplace and the burial place of one's parents are critical to maintain in a special way to ensure career success.  I think that is the real reason why DPP Lai does not want to tear down this "illegal" house and his insistence that it is all nice and legal when facts indicate that it is a clear violation of zoning laws.

Separately, note the ROC flag in the background.  DPP Lai has internalized DPP Prez Tsai's new moderate line of the DPP to embrace ROC and move the DPP to an anti-PRC Two China position versus the old "One China, One Taiwan" position.  That is not how DPP Lai feels inside but it seems he has accepted that line as an imperative for winning the election and keeping the USA (and to some extent PRC) from freaking out.

[jaichind]

Formosa Times poll:

What if at the end of the campaign, TPP Ko acts in a way to say that he cannot win and de facto endorses (note it is illegal for a candidate to try to endorse another candidate once the campaign has started) DPP Lai?  How would you vote?
DPP Lai      40.0
KMT Hou    37.9
TPP Ko        6.5


What if at the end of the campaign, TPP Ko acts in a way to say that he cannot win and de facto endorses KMT Hou?  How would you vote?
KMT Hou    40.7
DPP Lai      38.2
TPP Ko        6.5

Frankly, the first scenario is impossible but the second scenario is. 

I think how the second scenario might play out is:
Guo starts to campaign for KMT legislative candidates in early Jan (which seems to be his plan).  In the last week of the campaign, TPP Ko's main talking point is the need to defeat DPP and spends all his time campaigning to push up the TPP PR vote.    A couple of days before the election Guo endorses KMT Hou.  TPP mayor of Hsinchu 高虹安(Ann Kao)  who is really aligned with Guo (Guo "loaned" her to TPP as part of his de facto alliance with Ko)  starts to campaign for KMT legislative candidates and joins Guo in events that de endorses KMT Hou.  These actions are a signal to the TPP base that TPP Ko wants them to vote for KMT Hou while voting TPP on the PR slate.

If such a scenario plays out I would think KMT Hou would then be favored to defeat DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

In the DPP Lai interview with Bloomberg back in August he actually makes comparisons of ROC to Ukraine and the DPP administration to Zelensky.  I think that is about the last time the DPP has mentioned Ukraine given the slow slide to defeat there.  It is now the KMT and TPP that talks about Ukraine from time to time more to say "please vote out DPP, do not turn ROC into the disaster that is Ukraine today"

[jaichind]

Youth heavy CNEWS poll on Blue +3 Taipei 4th district.   The rising DPP superstar 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) headed for landslide defeat by the former KMT MP 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu) in the battle of 3 women.

Back in 2020, maverick light green DPP MLA 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) rode the DPP Prez Tsai wave to win this seat.
DPP    50.1  (高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu))
KMT   47.4  (incuumbant 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu))

高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-yu) was always a DPP renegade who was close to Ko and TPP.    She won over a lot of TPP PR and light Blue votes to win here in 2020.  At a personal level she is close to Lai and fairly negative on DPP Prez Tsai (there is a thing in the DPP where women politicians tend not to like each other) Her plan for re-election in 2024 was the replicate her 2020 coalition.

The Deep Green in this district is furious with Kao's maverick position a despite attempts to head this off part of the Deep Green DPP in the district will support the TSP candidate (who herself just missed being elected MLA back in 2022.)    Kao's response is to try to get DPP Lai (who is close to her despite their ideological differences) to campaign for her.

The CNEWS poll has it at
KMT    50.1
DPP     24.9
TSP     10.9

The crosstabs show that Kao's strategy backfired as 25% of the DPP vote is still going to the TSP candidate but Lee sweeps the KMT vote and beats Kao with TPP voters 43-29.  It seems the TPP vote here got turned off by Kao going to get DPP Lai for support.  So in the end Kao lost on both fronts.  She lost the part of the core DPP vote to TSP and lost the TPP vote to Lee.




In terms of party support, this district has fairly strong TPP numbers although the caveat is that CNEWS is fairly youth/cell heavy and will overestimate TPP support

KMT   36.8
DPP    24.8
TPP    20.2
TSP      1.8
NPP      0.6
Clear gender gap where KMT is strong with women and TPP is stronger with men.   TPP is stronger with youth and KMT is stronger with older voters.  TPP is strong with those with college degrees but very weak with those without college degrees.


In terms of the Prez vote it is
KMT Hou    41.0
DPP Lai      28.5
TPP Ko       19.2
which is pretty good for KMT Hou given that this district is Blue +3.  KMT's Lee has a very strong personal vote here.  I suspect KMT Hou's overperformance might be some reverse coattails.

[jaichind]

With 3 weeks left, both the KMT Hou and TPP Ko camps are doing fairly large rallies for part of the weekend.  For some reason, there are no big DPP rallies yet but I am sure they are coming soon.

KMT Hou rally in Taipei (right in front of the Prez palace) which is fairly large given the cold and rainy weather - note that everyone is wearing raincoats.






TPP Ko rally in Kaoshiung with the title "Unity of pro-Ko, pro-Han and pro-Guo forces" which is an attempt to eat into the KMT vote.  Note the significant number of ROC flags as part of that effort.  Note as big as the KMT rally but fairly sizeable given the limited resources the TPP Ko campaign has.

[jaichind]

Signs of future TPP/Guo tactical voting for KMT Hou

KMT Hou, TPP mayor of  Hsinchu City 高虹安(Ann Kao)  KMT county magistrate of Hsinchu county, and KMT rebel county magistrate of Maioli county together at the opening game of the ROC national basketball league in  Hsinchu City. 

 The KMT rebel county magistrate of Maioli county was for TPP Ko earlier in the year but has now backed KMT Hou as part of the Pan-Blue consolidation when KMT-TPP unity talks failed.  Note that 高虹安(Ann Kao) is really associated with Guo and was "on loan" to the TPP back in 2020 to run as a TPP PR candidate and then in 2022 as mayor of  Hsinchu City.  She won in 2022 on the back of the KMT tactical vote

The fact that the TPP mayor of  Hsinchu City 高虹安(Ann Kao) as host invited KMT Hou and not TPP Ko to the opening game is already a signal.

In the various group photos, all the pro-Hou people, including KMT Hou himself, all posed with a hand gesture of "3" which is KMT Hou's candidate number.  Note that 高虹安(Ann Kao)'s hand gesture is a "heart symbol" and not "1" which is TPP Ko's candidate number.



Very clear signs that Gou and pro-KMT factions within TPP are moving toward KMT Hou.  Watch this space for some potentially dramatic events a few days before the election.

[jaichind]

History of PR vote by bloc (since 2008 when the current system of a separate PR vote started) plus my 2024 PR vote projections

                      2024proj       2020       2016       2012        2008
Deep Blue           1.0%         2.2%       6.3%      1.5%       4.0%
KMT                 37.0%        33.4%      26.9%   44.6%      51.2%
Light Blue           0.6%         4.2%      10.2%     6.7%        2.2%
TPP                  18.6%        11.2%
Light Green        5.4%        10.3%       3.2%      3.4%        1.9%
DPP                  34.5%       34.0%      44.1%    34.6%      36.9%
Deep Green        2.9%         4.8%        9.4%      9.2%        3.8%

Note for NPP, I counted them as Deep Green in 2016 but as Light Green in 2020.  Just like I would count PFP as Deep Blue before 2005 but Light Blue after 2005.

[jaichind]

There is a significant chance that TPP Ko's vote share might fall below 20%.  If that is the case his ability to control TPP will be quite compromised. In that situation, the TPP legislative caucus will become much more powerful.  The two people like to emerge as the de facto leader of TPP in that scenario are 黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan) or 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang.)

The two will likely have two very different paths in mind for TPP.  The path will be at odds with their ideology and be much more about their personal political experience.

黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan) started as Deep Blue and was recruited by current KMT VP candidate Chao to enter into NP in the mid-1990s.  She served as a NP MP and later joined PFP and became more Light Blue in her orientation   She tried to become and failed to be a KMT-PFP joint candidate for MP in 2008 which led her to take on an anti-KMT position.  In 2016 she took support from DPP to run against the KMT in her district in Taipei in a losing effort but as a result, she built a personal relationship with DPP Prez Tsai.  Her brother has a military background and is non-political but became pretty high up in the DPP Tsai administration DoD.  In the end, she made too many enemies in the Pan-Blue ecosystem so she eventually joined TPP.   黃珊珊(Huang Shan-shan)'s orientation, despite her Deep Blue background, is mostly anti-KMT and if she is in charge of TPP she is much more likely to take a neutral position between KMT and DPP and could side with DPP under the right circumstances.   




黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) has a Deep Green anti-KMT background and has been an activist since the early 2000s mostly against the KMT agenda.  He was a co-founder of NPP and ran in the 2014 and 2016 elections as a DPP ally.  Under the 2016 DPP Tsai administration he collided with the DPP on resource sharing between DPP and NPP and by 2020 had become mostly anti-DPP.  Eventually, he made too many enemies in the Pan-Green ecosystem and became much more pro-Ko leading to him joining TPP earlier in 2023.  Despite his Deep Green background 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) is mostly about being anti-DPP and anti-New Tide faction.  If he were in charge of TPP he would for sure take a tactical alliance with the KMT line against the DPP.


The story of the two Huangs shows that personal experience and personal conflicts play a bigger role than ideology in determining their political line.

I just watched a hour-long interview with 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang).  Just like I predicted.  He pretty much spent 90% of the time attacking DPP and DPP Lai.  While he also criticized KMT Hou he does seem to affirm that KMT Hou is at the foundation a good person and found some positions to say about KMT Hou.  When he attacked the KMT he attacked them for not being anti-DPP enough.  He did at the end ask for a vote for KMT Hou and the PR vote for TPP but alluded to a vote for the KMT in the district legislative race where TPP is not running.

It is just amazing that would be 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang)'s position after he was the ultimate "anti-KMT" activist back in the 2013-2016 period.

[jaichind]

Fun multi-cornered battles in legislative races (most competitive races were won by DPP and allies in 2020 and are open seats)


Taipei 1st (Blue +1)
A fairly popular DPP incumbent is vulnerable given the lean of the race.  But a fairly popular former NP MLA 侯漢廷(Hou Han-Ting) who is quite active on political talk shows is running with TPP support and will cut into the KMT vote.  It is funny how TPP has people running who are from both Deep Green and Deep Blue backgrounds.  As a result, the KMT will most likely miss its chance to flip this seat unless there is a large anti-DPP wave on election day.
Result: Likely DPP hold


Taipei 4th (Blue +6)
DPP incumbant vs KMT former incumbant vs TSP.   DPP light-green maverick 高嘉瑜(Kao Chia-Yu) is trying to beat the former KMT incumbent she upset back in 2020 while facing a Deep Green challenge from TSP in this "battle of three women".  
Result: Almost certain KMT flip


Taipei 5th (Blue +3)
Pro-DPP independent with an NPP background incumbent who won in 2020 on the back of a TPP-backed KMT rebel splitting the KMT vote is not running due to personal reasons.  Theoretically, this should be a KMT pickup but the KMT candidate faced a protracted KMT primary. The TPP is backing a famous Pan-Blue media personality 于美人(Belle Yu) turning this election into a 3-way race and repeating the 2020 election.  
Result: I still have this as a KMT flip based on last-minute Pan-Blue consolidation but CW is that the DPP will win based on the Pan-Blue split.


Kaoshiung 5th (Green+5)
The DPP incumbent dropped out due to a sex scandal.  A rising DPP superstar MLA from a district next door with a NPP background 黃捷(Huang Jie) is brought in to run for DPP.  The KMT candidate is the same one from 2020 and has local roots.  A well-funded Deep Green and long-time Taiwan Independence activist DPP rebel is in the race.   There is talk that a couple of local DPP MLAs are angry that they are being skipped over to run with an outsider being brought in.  
Result: The DPP rebel will get a significant vote share and make this race very close but I do think the DPP will pull it out.


Keelung City at large (Blue +8)
The DPP incumbent is not running which de facto makes the KMT the favorite to flip the seat.  The labor activist son of a former DPP MP is running with NPP support and will make the DPP defeat almost certain.    What would be interesting would be the vote share breakdowns.
Result: Easy KMT flip


Yilan County at large (Green +7)
The DPP incumbent had to drop out due to a scandal leading to a flood of candidates from the Pan-Green camp.  In addition to the KMT DPP and TPP candidates, a TSP candidate and a DPP rebel are also in the fray.  The TPP candidate is currently a TPP PR MP and ran as the TPP candidate for county magistrate back in 2022 so she does have some name recognition.  In theory, she cuts into the expected TPP PR vote support for the KMT candidate but the split of the DPP vote gives the KMT an edge.
Result: I have it as a KMT flip but I can see the argument that a last-minute Pan-Green consolidation could let DPP pull it out.


Hsinchu City at large (Blue +4)
The KMT incumbent who won in 2020 in a close 3-way KMT-DPP-NPP race is running for re-election in a 4-way race  Other than the DPP candidate, NPP is a candidate to try to hold on to its high 2020 vote share while TPP is backing Ko's sister running as a pro-TPP independent.  It seems TPP Ko was not supportive of his sister running but the local TPP made to call to back her independent run.  The KMT incumbent would be in danger if TPP and NPP joined forces to sweep the youth vote and trigger tactical voting from the DPP.  But with the youth vote split between NPP and the pro-TPP independent the KMT incumbent should consolidate the elderly vote and win.
Result: Very likely KMT hold


Taitung County at large (Blue+18)
The lean of the county is deceptive.  The KMT is very strong here due to the large Aborgine vote that is very strongly pro-KMT.  But for legislative races, the DPP is far more competitive since the Aborigines vote in a separate all-Aborigine slate leaving the non-Aborgines to vote in the legislative races for this seat.  The DPP won here in 2012 (based on a KMT split) 2016, and 2020 where the DPP candidate has a lot of personal appeal beyond the DPP.  This time a local DPP rival who is also fairly popular beyond the DPP base challenged the DPP incumbent and won.  The DPP incumbent rebelled and will run as an independent.  In theory, this makes the race an easy KMT win.  But the problem is the KMT is also facing a fairly strong KMT rebel with strong local roots running as an independent turning this into a 4-way race plus a TPP candidate that is not expected to win that many votes.
Result: I think KMT takes it and flips the seat which is also CW but it depends on how the vote split with the 2 rebels works out.


Hsinchu County 2nd (Blue +15)
The KMT incumbent will win an easy re-election by a large vote margin.  What is fun is the DPP candidate is not that well known and the NPP is running their chairperson and current NPP PR MP 王婉諭 (Claire Wang) in this race.  With the right tactical voting by TPP PR vote the NPP could beat DPP into 3rd place.
Result: Easy KMT hold


Tainan 6th (Green +9)
The DPP incumbent should win re-election with ease.  What is fun is a pan-Green rebel 陳永和 (Chen Yung-Ho) who as an unknown ward head shocked everyone in the 2018 Tainan mayor race by winning 12% of the vote based on his opposition to how waste disposal was being handled in Tainan City.   He backed DPP in 2020 but this time around is running as an independent.  It will be fun to see how many Pan-Green votes (and perhaps TPP votes) he manages to win.   Of course, the DPP incumbent is in no danger whatsoever of losing even if his victory margin might come down from 2020.
Result: Easy DPP hold.

[jaichind]

Despite polling, I start to feel Hou will pull it out in the end...

My current guess is

DPP Lai   41
KMT Hou 39
TPP Ko    20

I would say the chances of Lai vs Hou's victory are now as close as 60/40 given the edge Hou has in tactical voting while the entire 賴皮寮(Shameless Shack) scandal not going away means that 41-42 is pretty much the cap for DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko spent a week or two trying to get the Light Green vote by attacking the DPP New Tide faction and also praising DPP Prez Tsai, this week TPP Ko's focus is on getting the Blue vote.  He first kept on talking about how he wanted the 2020 KMT Prez candidate and 2024 KMT PR list head Han as his VP candidate.  He also said that the PRC political system may evolve to be more like the ROC and implied that if such a transformation takes place then PRC-ROC unification is possible.

[jaichind]

So far the DPP Lai campaign does not seem to be focused on big rallies.  The rally format so far is to hold a smaller rally in every city/county with each smallish rally having people hold up cards to form different words per city/county.  Most of the words involve Lai's name or the world "Taiwan" or "win" etc etc.

[jaichind]

For a while, the picture shown on Google Maps of the address of DPP Lai's "illegal" house AKA 賴皮寮(Shameless Shack) is a fake meme ad

Which says "Shameless Shack: The best illegal construction in 100 years. Priceless Green energy, invincible military police protection"



It seems after a couple of days this was taken down

[jaichind]

The pro-KMT speaker of Pingdong County assembly 周典論(Chou Dien-Lun) was questioned and held by government investigators over his role in possible bribery related to Guo's Prez election signature campaign.    Chou was pro-Guo earlier in the year but consolidated around KMT Hou when KMT-TPP unity talks failed.  Chou played a key role in a KMT Hou rally last week and this week he has been arrested by government investigators.

Many commentators say that this is most likely related to the legislative election in Pingdong 2nd district.  This area has historically been the territory of the powerful pro-DPP Su family.  The current MP 蘇震清(Su  Tsìn-Tshing) was charged with corruption right before the 2020 election and left the DPP to run as a pro-DPP independent.  The Su family has been close to DPP Tsai (who also comes from Pingdong County).  蘇震清(Su Tsìn-Tshing)'s uncle 蘇嘉全(Su Jia-Chyuan) was the DPP county magistrate before running as DPP Tsai's running mate in 2012.   

The Pingdong Su family has been more hostile to the New Tide faction so in this election the DPP ran its own candidate.   In anger 蘇震清(Su Tsìn-Tshing) arranged for his son to run as a DPP rebel.   The local KMT kingpin 蘇清泉(Su Ching-Chuan) (no relation) narrowly lost in his run for Pingdong County magistrate last year convinced the KMT high command to not run a candidate and de facto back 蘇震清(Su Tsìn-Tshing)'s son in his run.  蘇清泉(Su Ching-Chuan) overperformed in the 2nd district last year (winning this district 48.6 to 47.8 against the DPP winner) and it was always understood that the DPP Su family stood down last year to help 蘇清泉(Su Ching-Chuan).

It seems the KMT-DPP Su family alliance is fairly strong on the ground and stands a chance of flipping this seat.  If that were to take place the KMT-DPP Su family alliance could extend into 2026 when 蘇清泉(Su Ching-Chuan) will try to run for county magistrate again and the DPP Su family might actively back him to pay him back for his support in their election for the Pingdong 2nd district.

The DPP-controlled government prosecutors going after the pro-KMT speaker of the county assembly seem to be related to this risk.

[jaichind]

TVBS points out that on Google map old images from August showing ROC military police helping sweep the garden of DPP Lai's "illegal" house AKA 賴皮寮(Shameless Shack) now got blurred out so you can no longer see their ROC military police badge although the garbage can they are using are not blurred out.

[jaichind]

The second Prez debate took place.  DPP Lai this time focused on attacking KMT Hou on his "property" issue namely how KMT Hou owns 凱旋苑(Triumph Court) which is a dorm at 中國文化大學(China Culture University) on top of 陽明山(Yangming Mountain) in Northern Taipei.  This seems mostly a way to distract from his own 賴皮寮(Shameless Shack) issue.



When KMT Hou was running for the mayor of New Taipei City in 2018 the DPP claimed that this dorm was built illegally.  During the campaign, it seemed that Hou could show the documents that indicated this was not the case.   This building is really owned by the family of KMT Hou's wife.

This time around the DPP tried to re-litigate this issue but it went nowhere.  The new DPP Lai attack seems to be a) KMT Hou did not pay taxes on the rent earned from this building and b) the rent for rooms in the building has been surging the last few years.

It seems after the debate KMT Hou is able to show receipts on taxes paid for the rent collected from this dorm.  As for b) that is a lot harder to defend because it seems these rent increases are market-driven.

My grandparents lived in a villa on 陽明山(Yangming Mountain) from 1980 to 2010.  I will always walk to 中國文化大學(China Culture University) every time I go visit them. The view from CCU downward at Taipei is a great tourist attraction in Taipei.



 I recall this 凱旋苑(Triumph Court)  being renovated in the mid-2000s on one of my trips to CCU.  I did not realize until today that the building I saw being built is owned by KMT Hou (or really KMT Hou's wife).

[jaichind]

Beyond Pingdong 2nd district, where the KMT will back a DPP rebel to take on the DPP, there are 3 other examples of cross-partisan alliances.

The most interesting one is Chiayi County 2nd district (Green+7):  Just like in 2020 the KMT will back a former DPP MP, 林國慶(Lin Kuo-Ching) to take on the DPP.    Back in 2020, he took on the legislative leader of the Tsai faction AKA King of Chiayi County 陳明文(Chen Ming-wen).   In the late 1970s, Chen was a rising superstar in the KMT.  He was elected to the Chiayi County Assembly in 1977 at the age of 23 and became Speaker of the Chiayi County Assembly in 1981 at the age of 27 as part of being the leader of the pro-KMT Lin faction.  Chen later became a KMT MP and defected in 2001 to the DPP due to clear partisan re-alignment in the county plus what he felt was KMT bias in favor of the rival Huang faction.  Chen later was the first to jump on the Tsai bandwagon in 2008 (both were from KMT backgrounds) and became the core of the Tsai faction.  In 2020 due to clear anti-incumbency against Chen (having been in  Chiayi County politics for 43 years) Lin barely lost to Chen 46.1 to 41.2.  This time DPP is running Chen's son while Lin is backed by KMT TPP PFP and TRP (Light Green DPP splinter).  If the 2020 anti-incumbency against the Chen family continues this year this might be a surprise flip.  Otherwise, it should be a narrow DPP hold.  Still, the KMT hopes to get some pan-Green anti-Chen voters to vote for KMT Hou.


Tainan 2nd (Green +17).  This is the most pro-DPP district in ROC.  The KMT is backing DPP rebel 陳昆和(Chen Kun-He) who was a two-time anti-DPP but pan-Green MLA.  Chen is aligned with the DPP anti-New Tide forces in New Tide-dominated Tainan and the KMT is hoping to cut the margin of the DPP landslide and perhaps some anti-New Tide DPP vote might go to KMT Hou by this move.


Taoyuan 6th (Blue +8).  The DPP is backing, just like in 2016 and 2020, a KMT rebel 趙正宇(Chao Cheng-Yu) who managed to win in both years despite the lean.  Chao has a Deep Blue background and was a KMT MLA but had a falling out with the local KMT.  in 2016 and 2020 Chao has been able to add his personal vote to the DPP base to ride to victory over the KMT candidate.    The main problem for Chao is that in 2020 he was arrested for corruption.  It seems he was acquitted of the more serious part of the charges although the prosecution is still in the middle of appealing.  This district is fairly rural so the impact should not be that large but given the swing against the DPP plus the corruption factor, I think KMT flips this even though CW has this as a tossup or lean Chao.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko says his goal is to get Asian Games to be in Taipei for 2038 followed by trying to get Summer Olympics for 2040.

[jaichind]

One topic in today's Prez debate besides the usual stuff (relationship with PRC, various zoning violations, various DPP corruption accusations) is lower income and class mobility.

It is totally true that over the last 20 years, income and class mobility have slowed down dramatically. It was pointed out that the chances of a kid from a high-income family getting into Taiwan University (the top University in ROC) is 8 times larger than a kid from a low-income family.  And this has nothing to do with legacies or "holistic" admissions that target URM (there are none in ROC anyway) or those that donate money to the University like the USA.  ROC university admissions are purely based on college entrance exams. 

The reason for this might be the rich being able to afford tutoring or cram school (my parents used to run/teach at college entrance cram schools back in the 1970s and made good money doing it).  But it is much more likely the result of assortative mating.   Before the rise of feminism trend on ROC during the 1990s, male doctors tend to marry female nurses.  Now with greater gender equity, male doctors marry women doctors.    This trend has created a clear and strong positive correlation between income and test scores when such a correlation used to be fairly weak back in the 1980s and before.