India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bihar-assembly-approves-hike-in-caste-quota-9020242/

"Bihar reservation bill clears Assembly unanimously, quota raised from 50% to 65%"

Again this is illegal.  The SC has already ruled that reservations cannot be more than 50%.  But it will take years for this to get escalated to the SC.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidate list in Rajasthan.  Takeaways:

1) The renomination rate is very high for INC and BJP.  This is strange because Rajasthan is well known for anti-incumbency at the local level, especially for INC MLAs.  Many of the MLAs that are not running are actually because of age.  There are a few MLAs dropped that have to do with factional issues.  Very few MLAs who can and are willing to run that are not renominated.  I suspect this is because both INC and BJP (especially INC) were hit badly in 2018 by rebels.  INC in 2018 underperformed pre-election polls mostly due to the impact of INC rebels.  Both INC and BJP this time seem to focus on the renomination of sitting MLA and take the risk of anti-incumbency to prevent rebellions.

2) The level of defections between BJP and INC is very low, unlike other states.   

3) BJP, like other states, has nominated 7 sitting and 5 former MPs to run.   Here the INC is countering by running 5 former MPs.  Both INC and BJP also have nominated a few former MLAs who did not run in 2018 but will run in 2023.  Both seem to focus on candidate quality.

4) There were a lot of successful INC rebels in 2018.  A bunch of them will run for INC this time with a few running for BJP.   This sort of fits into the candidate quality narrative.

5) INC broke BSP back in 2018 to get to a workable majority.  Most BSP MLAs have been re-nominated by INC.

[jaichind]

https://theshillongtimes.com/2023/11/09/upset-over-not-getting-ticket-congress-leader-attempts-suicide/

"Upset over not getting ticket, Congress leader attempts suicide"

A 2018 INC candidate in Telangana was denied a ticket this time for his district who then attempted suicide due to not being nominated by INC.

He should not take it too personally. This cycle in Telangana it seems INC is going with a completely new set of candidates for the districts in that area of the state relative to 2018 which is exactly the opposite strategy or BRS.

[jaichind]

BJP appoints former BJP CM Yediyurappa's son to be the head of the Karnataka BJP.  Ever after the defeat in Karnataka assembly polls earlier this year the BJP has been directionless and was not even able to come up with a leader.  This move shows that BJP's high command has accepted that without Yediyurappa the Karnataka BJP at the state level cannot go anywhere.

[jaichind]

Modi is just on another level when it comes to election rallies.  Part of this is also about the BJP's organizational abilities to organize so many rallies.  This cycle if anything Modi is doing a lot fewer rallies than normal.

On the flip side, Modi refuses to do any press conferences.
https://twitter.com/Chacha_huu/status/1722870047000113654

[jaichind]

Knowing that anti-incumbency is weighing down the BJP in MP, MP BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan rolled out the Ladli Bahna Yojana program right before the elections with an eye on women voters.  Ladli Bahna Yojana provides around $15 a month to unmarried women above the age of 21.  INC seems to up the ante by saying they will do the same but at a $25 a month rate.   BJP countered that by saying they will eventually raise the amount to $36 a month (3000 INR).

BJP campaign posters in MP have Modi and put BJP CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan as one of the collective BJP leadership to try to blunt the image that  Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been around as CM for too long. Note the 3000 INR ($36) a month promise for any unmarried women above the age of 21.
 

There are similar dueling promises between the BJP and INC on free LNG cylinders for housewives.  Just like all other state elections, this election is turned into competitive populism battles.

[jaichind]

Most Popular TV Channel in Each State. Not surprisingly they are organized around language. The Hindi heartland media market can now be viewed as one media market.

[jaichind]

I did an analysis of the Telangana candidate list.  My takeaways are

a) BRS going all out on incumbent candidate connections.  Very few BRS MLAs are dropped.
b) Most opposition MLA defect to BRS (including around 2/3 of INC MLA) and will run for BRS.  There are a few 2018 BRS candidates to INC and BJP defections but most of the defection stream is toward BRS.  BRS must be paying top money to get these defections and is really part of a) where BRS is going all out to bet on incumbent MLA local connections
c) Of course a) and b) means that INC has to bet on anti-incumbancy.  INC dropped a lot of its 2018 candidates in certain regions.  They must sense a lot of anti-incumbency in those regions and drop even their running-up candidates from 2018.  In some regions, the INC 2018 runner-up is defecting to BJP.

I think the results being thrown up will vary greatly by region and there is unlikely to be a uniform swing.  In some seats, the BJP might over take INC to be the main challenger to BRS and in other seats the anti-INC BJP to BRS tactical vote will flow back to BJP helping INC beat BRS.

[jaichind]

Hindu media Dainik Bhaskar survey on Rajasthan

BJP ahead 75
INC ahead 43
Others ahead 9  (I assume mostly BJP or INC rebels)
Close contest  73

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/telangana-polls-bjps-dalit-outreach-pm-promise-9023135/

"Amid BJP’s Dalit outreach in Telangana, PM promises to set up panel for classification of SC sub-groups"

Modi attended a large rally of the  Madiga sub-reservation movement MRPS in Telangana.  Modi promised to achieve the sub-reservation for Madiga where the leader of MRPS broke down and embraced Modi.  The BJP media is pushing this image as Modi being the champion of Dalits



Some key facts.  This  Madiga is a lower Dalit group in Telegu areas and has not benefited as much from reservation for Dalits since the higher Dalit groups tend to benefit more.  As a result, Madiga are demanding separate reservations for their caste.  The BJP embraced this movement as a way to counter INC's strength with Dalits by "sandwiching" the higher Dalits that tend to back INC.

Of course, back in 2014 the BJP already promised Madiga sub-reservation which they have not delivered on.  They are back with the same promises.  I doubt they will go through with it.  If Madiga sub-reservation is achieved the BJP will gain more Madiga votes but lose more votes amoung other communities.

[jaichind]

Politicalbaaba view on BJP vs INC strategy in MP

https://twitter.com/politicalbaaba/status/1724111701526876395

[jaichind]

Telangana INC ad which is an advertisement for a BRS-BJP wedding which implies that a vote for BRS is a vote for BJP in an attempt to corner the Muslim vote.

[jaichind]

List of INC freebies in promised in Telangana.  BRS has a similar list.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey continues to insist on a significant INC victory in MP

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Democracy Times did a seat-by-seat projection of MP and produced a narrow but significant INC victory

[jaichind]

Hindi newspaper Dainik Bhaskar status update on MP

BJP                85
INC                70
Others             5
Close contest  70

Generally makes sense.  The BJP will sweep urban areas with a good vote share margin while in rural areas it is lean INC but fairly close.   This is why INC has a small vote share to seat advantage vis-a-vis BJP.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey on Chhattisgarh.  It has a large INC victory.  I doubt the scale of victory will be this large.

[jaichind]

INC ad in the MP edition of Hindi newspaper Dainik Bhaskar



Note they put INC Prez Mallikarjun Kharge in the middle (mostly to target Dalit votes) and have INC CM candidate Kamal Nath at par with Rahul Gandhi.  This is part of the INC strategy of projecting Kamal Nath and avoiding any Modi vs Rahul Gandhi battles.

This will work in the MP assembly but will be a problem for INC in the 2024 LS election.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kuki-zo-grouping-announces-self-rule-in-a-few-manipur-districts/article67537204.ece

"Tribal body declares ‘self-rule’ in a few districts of Manipur"

In Manipur, Kuki groups declare autonomy from the Meiti-dominated state government.   More violence to come unless the federal and state governments backs down.

[jaichind]

Turnout in MP so far is very high. Hard to say who it benefits.  The marginal MP voter most likely lean BJP but this could be an anti-incumbant surge. 
https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1725433661137330589

[jaichind]

MP turnout most likely will hit 80%.  BTW this tweet is wrong.  In 2008 it was 69.6% and not 79.6%

https://twitter.com/sanjaycsds/status/1725485734088585449

[jaichind]

Betting markets for Telangana have BRS at 56-58, INC at 52-54, BJP at 5-6, AIMIM at 6-8

[jaichind]

https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/politics/madhya-pradesh-records-7622-per-cent-voter-turnout

"Madhya Pradesh records 76.22 per cent voter turnout"

This is a record turnout for MP assembly elections and most likely will be revised upward.  I guess part of this is the real prospect that INC could win.  Back in 2018 INC ended up winning but because BJP won in 2003 2008 and 2013 the CW was still that BJP would win.  This time around everyone seem to agree that INC could win which drives up turnout.

[jaichind]

Betting markets for MP after voting took place

BJP : 110-112
INC : 114-116

Looks like a rerun of 2018.  For the ruling party to be behind in betting markets, even slightly behind, is not good.  Most likely INC lead over BJP will be more than 2018.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll survey has INC with a increasingly larger lead in Telangana