India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

Modi did a road show and a campaign rally in Meghalaya




Note Modi is wearing a Meghalaya tribal hat so he fits in.

Modi is fairly popular in Meghalaya due to the federal government shifting a lot of subsidies to the Northeast last few years coupled with effective distribution of those subsidies to the grassroots.  But Modi and not BJP seems to get credit for these freebies so it is not clear how much of Modi's popularity will rub off on BJP.

[jaichind]

Main talking/points by each party in Meghalaya

BJP: NPP and AITC are dynasty parties.  Also NPP is corrupt.  
NPP: AITC is a Bengali party. (note NPP is in a struggle with AITC in Garo Hills so trying to paint former INC CM and now AITC leader Mukul Sangma makes sense)
UDP: NPP and AITC are  Garo Hills  parties (UDP is stronger in Khasi Hills and Jaintia Hills and is making its appeal that these areas rally around UDP to stop the recent trend of CM coming from Garo Hills)
INC: BJP is anti-Christian. INC seems more interested to beating down BJP than winning itself.

Politics are very personal in Meghalaya and party label does not matter that much.  India Today said when they went to Garo Hills towns asking to visit the local AITC headquarters no one knew what they were talking about.  After a while the local people said "Oh you mean  Mukul Sangma headquarters ?  Yeah, I will show you the way"

[jaichind]

Here is Modi at at Nagaland election rally wearing a Nagaland tribal outfit.  This election is not interesting because it is clear that NDPP-BJP is headed for a landslide victory with even NPF not really trying anymore.

[jaichind]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/supporters-of-khalistan-sympathiser-clash-with-police-in-amritsar/20230223.htm

"With swords and guns, Khalistani supporters clash with police in Amritsar"

It seems under AAP there has been a resurgence of the Khalistan movement.  A key aide of a Khalistan movement leader was arrested and after mass protests by Khalistani supporters, the police backed down and released him.



There were always rumors that AAP has connections with radical overseas Khalistan outfits and was going to be soft on Khalistan organizations.  So far it seems this might be true.

[jaichind]

The release of a key aide of the radical Sikh cleric and Khalistan supporter Amritpal Singh after his supporters stormed the police station reminds me of the 2020 Mexico release of El Chapo's son after the Sinaloa cartel stormed Culiacan.

This new radical  Sikh cleric and Khalistan supporter Amritpal Singh seems to come out of nowhere.  His movement was mostly about Sikh and social reform and then mushroomed into a large Sikh radical organization that also supports Khalistan.



If the Punjab government does not get this guy under control he gives me vibes of radical Sikh cleric Bhindranwale that radicalized Punjab in the late 1970s and early 1980s and led to the storming of the Golden Temple and the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984.  Insurgency in Punjab did not really subside until the mid to late 1990s.  Bhindranwale was never for Khalistan but just like Amritpal Singh started as a Sikh and social reformer before his movement mushroomed into a radical organization with political goals.

[jaichind]

Voting is about to start soon in Nagaland and Meghalaya.  

For Meghalaya, I read some more ground reports that AITC is surging at expense of INC, Modi's popularity is having an effect and INC is not spending much money this year.  I have an updated guess.  Most ground reports have INC as near zero seats.  I still think the INC brand will have some weight and get them 5 seats when they run quality candidates.  I still most likely underestimated the micro parties and rebels.

                Guess          2018
INC              5              21
INC rebel                       2
AITC           12
NCP                               1
PDF              2                4
NPP            23              20
BJP              6                2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP           11                6
VPP             1    
KHNAM                          1
HSPDP                           2

There are two main ecosystems with Garo and Khasi-speaking clusters that have very different dynamics.  UDP only has strength in Khasi areas while the Garo branch of INC has mostly gone over tie AITC.

By region
Jaintia Hills (UDP stronger here so anti-NPP vote will go to UDP)
                Guess          2018
INC                               1
NPP              2               3
UDP              5               3
 

Khasi Hills(historically free-to-all with very splintered vote, anti-NPP vote split which helps NPP)
                Guess          2018
INC              4              10
INC rebel                       1                          
PDF              2               4
NPP            12               5
BJP              4               2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP             6               3
VPP              1
KHNAM                         1
HSPDP                          2  

Garo Hills (This is where most of INC went over to AITC with some anti-NPP consolidation)
                Guess          2018
INC              1              10
INC rebel                       1
AITC           12
NCP                               1
NPP              9              12
BJP              2                

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/india/meghalaya-assembly-elections-polling-postponed-in-sohiong-constituency-after-udp-candidates-demise/1387475/

"Meghalaya Assembly elections: Polling postponed in Sohiong constituency after UDP candidate’s demise"

In Meghalaya's Sohiong the UDP candidate passed away leading to a delay in voting in this district.

In 2018 the results here were

HSPDP     46.1 -> defected to NPP
INC         43.7 -> defected to UDP
PDF         10.3

This time around it will be NPP vs UDP in a re-run of the 2018 election.  The UDP candidate (who ran in 2018 as INC) passed away which clears the way for the NPP incumbent (elected in 2018 as HSPDP) to win for sure, especially when NPP will return as the largest party and holds the CM seat when the election does take place.

[jaichind]

After voting is done in  Nagaland and Meghalaya on Feb 27th in theory exit polls for  Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya can then come out.  Not sure if there will be any.  All I know is that exit polls for the NE always were not very good and most likely overestimates the incumbent.  The counting will be on March 3rd.

[jaichind]

INC ad.  Note how INC tries to reclaim the legacy of Sardar Patel, Ambedkar, Subhas Chandra Bose, Lal Bahadur Shastri, and Narasimha Rao.  All of them had had various run-ins with the Nehru-Gandhi clan and some of them had left INC because of it.

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/delhi-dy-chief-minister-manish-sisodia-arrested-in-excise-policy-case-kejriwal-slams-dirty-politics-1195271.html

"Delhi Dy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia arrested in excise policy case, Kejriwal slams 'dirty politics'"

Delhi AAP DCM arrest for corruption.  AAP cries foul.

[jaichind]

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

[jaichind]

A lot of people in my family think India would be in much better shape if Patel and not Nehru wa the first PM

Well, if your family is from Gujarat then, of course, they are going to say that.

Yes they are but they think if Patel was the first PM then India may not have gone as much down in the socialist direction and would not be anywhere near nepotistic.

Well, as someone from the Right of course I would prefer Patel over Nehru.  I actually think the real point of diversion was the sudden death of Shastri in 1966.  Had he lived then he would have avoided Indira Gandhi's 1970s left-wing shift as well as the installation of the Gandhi clan as a permanent leader of INC.

[jaichind]

Voting over in Nagaland and Meghalaya.  Jan Ki Baat claims they will have exit polls for all 3 NE states soon.

[jaichind]

Axis My India Tripura Exit Poll - BJP retains power.  Looking at seat count it seems they have BJP sweeping Bengali seats and holding their own in tribal seats

BJP        36-45(45%)
LEFT+     6-11(32%)
TIPRA     9-16(20%)

[jaichind]

Meghalaya Zee news - Matrize exit polls

NPP : 21-26
AITC : 8-13
BJP : 6-11
INC : 3-6
OTH : 10-19

Looks pretty close to my prediction but with BJP outperforming and UDP underperforming

[jaichind]

Axis My India Meghalaya  Exit Pol

NPP : 18-24
BJP : 4-8
INC : 6-12
AITC  5-9
OTH : 4-8

They have INC totally outperforming and AITC and UDP underperforming

[jaichind]

Nagaland Zee news - Matrize exit polls. NDPP-BJP landslide was not as big as expected.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat is pretty close to their pre-election poll for Tripura  I call BS.  If the Left Front-INC vote share is similar to BJP-IPFT then given the low vote share of Left Front-INC in tribal areas then it would be a Left Front-INC sweep in Bengali areas which are now what the seat count shows.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Meghalaya.  NPP underperforms.  INC overperforms  

[jaichind]

Axis My India for all 3 NE states

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat exit poll for Nagaland

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Lok Poll has it closer in Tripura
https://twitter.com/LokPoll/status/1630212911800147969

But anti-BJP Democracy Times has BJP-IPFT with clear majority
https://twitter.com/TimesDemocracy/status/1630209553861345282

[jaichind]

Times Now exit poll for Tripura does have BJP-IPFT short of a majority

BJP-IPFT          21-27
Left Front-INC  18-24
TIPRA              12-17
Others               1-2

[jaichind]

Times Now exit poll for Meghalaya

NPP       18-26     24.7% 
AITC       8-14     16.09%
UDP        8-14     14.02%
BJP         3-6       12.08%
INC        ?      12.01%
PDF       ?        6.01%
VPPP     ?        1.06%

[jaichind]

The general sense from exit polls

a) BJP-IPFT is a bit better than expected in Tripura with a good chance at majority. Still exit polls tend to overestimate incumbents so not clear that this is a lock
b) NDPP-BJP mega landslide in Nagaland failed to materialize.  They will get the majority but there is clear opposition on the ground even if scattered
c) NPP most likely underperformed in Meghalaya which means even if NPP forms the government it will be messy