India 2023 assembly elections

[jaichind]

https://www.outlookindia.com/national/meghalaya-polls-can-mamata-banerjee-s-tmc-shed-the-tag-of-an-outsider--magazine-261006

"Meghalaya Polls: Can Mamata Banerjee's TMC Shed The Tag Of An 'Outsider'?"

The article points out that NPP sees AITC as a threat and is trying to consolidate the tribal vote behind NPP by portraying AITC as a Bengali party.  NPP also raises the issue of Christians under attack in the rest of India in a veiled attack on BJP.  Note that NPP does not come out in the open to attack the BJP since a likely NPP government could need BJP support to get to a majority and will need federal subsidies to run the government.

[jaichind]

In Tripura, the BJP has rolled out Modi several times to rally the BJP vote.  The main Modi line of appeal is to replicate the UP experience by targeting the women vote by focusing on law and order issues.

[jaichind]

https://zeenews.india.com/video/india/dna-governments-u-turn-on-cow-hug-day-2572003.html

"DNA: Government's 'U-turn' on Cow Hug Day"

The NDA government tried to rebrand Valentine day as Cow Hug Day but withdrew the attempt after being mocked domestically and internationally.

The core issue is similar to the Love Jihad and anti-Romeo Squad controversy.  In rural India there is a large majority of local leaders that feel strongly that parents and local clan leaders should select the husband/wife of their children.  This is to ensure that inter-caste and inter-community marriages does not occur.   Marriages in rural India are often alliances of various families and clans and any family that is viewed as not being able to make their will stick loses credibility in their village.

Valentines Day runs counter to that need so there have been various attempts to crack down on it.  Historically this has been anti-Romeo squads that goes after unmarried couples (especially those that seem be dating outside their caste or community) in the streets claiming that they are there to stop a potential sexual assault.  This Cow Hug Day seems to be be latest attempt that clearly has failed.

[jaichind]

I have been thinking about this  Adani vs Hindenburg saga.  One Adani defense is that everything the Hindenburg wrote, many of which are red flags in terms of not fraud but poor risk management, has been in the Indian public domain for a while.  Reading the Indian media coverage this does seem to be true.  My next question is why would these red flags not trigger a selloff as they did when the Hindenburg report came out.   It then occurred to me that Adani being so close to Modi actually help it shield itself from reporting these red flags.  Any Indian media that reports these issues with Adani can then be viewed as a political attack on Modi and dismissed by investors. It hs when a foreign non-Indian entity came out with the same concerns does the Indian investment community take it seriously and then the Adani stock then sold off.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/media/income-tax-officials-bbc

"Modi Documentary Fallout: Govt Launches Income Tax 'Survey' at BBC Offices in India"

Modi strikes back

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll poll of East India

BJP 17 INC 3


Back in 2019 it was BJP 26 INC 3

[jaichind]

Voting is in progress in Tripura.  As of  1PM turnout is 51.35%.  Back in 2018 turnout was over 91%.  Most likely turnout will be similar this time around.

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll poll of West India

BJP 46 INC 9



Back in 2019  it was BJP 51 INC 2

[jaichind]

If, as it is most likely, it is hung assembly in Tripura, then the position of TIPRA as kingmaker will be very difficult.  On the one hand, BJP is in a position to provide federal subsidies and potentially help with some variation of greater Tripraland-like autonomy.  On the other hand, the Left Front-INC CM candidate Jitendra Chaudhury is a tribal leader and there will be compulsion within TIPRA to back a tribal CM.

[jaichind]

Tripura turnout is at 76.9% as of 5 PM although this number will go up.  It does seem that turnout will be lower than the 2018 turnout of over 91%.

My guess of results right now are

             Total           2018     
BJP           24            36
IPFT           0              8
CPM          18            16
INC           3               0
TIPRA       15             --

Tribal
BJP            2             10
IPFT           0              8
CPM           2              2
INC            1              0
TIPRA       15             --

Bengali
BJP          22            26
CPM         16            14
INC           2              0
TIPRA       0              -

Bengali seats are mostly status quo with the Left Front-INC alliance making small gains to counter the BJP-attempted Bengali counter-consolidation TIPRA sweep of tribal seats with TIPRA eating into tribal votes from both BJP and Left Front-INC

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/tripura-polls-2023-revised-turnout-8451049/

"Tripura polls: Revised turnout rises to 87.63%; at 89%, more women voted than men"

Turnout in Tripura now at around 88% somewhat less than the 91% in 2018

[jaichind]

Going to an interview with TIPRA founder and leader Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma after the voting his projection of results seems to be something like

TIPRA      24
CPM         17
INC           6
BJP          13

In my view, his projection for his old party the INC at 5-6 seems pretty optimistic for INC and less likely than his own production of his own TIPRA.

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/my-son-can-teach-how-to-jitan-manjhi-s-veiled-dig-at-tejashwi-over-cm-post-101676609341199.html

"‘My son can teach how to…’: Jitan Manjhi's veiled dig at Tejashwi over CM post"

In Bihar, after former RLSP leader and now key JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha recently started to indirectly attack JD(U) CM Nitish Kumar, now HAM(S) leader  Jitan Ram Manjhi is also coming out to take jabs at RJD.

It seems we are slowly converging toward the configuration of the 2015 assembly elections where RJD-JD(U)-INC was on one side and BJP-RLSP-HAM-LJP was on the other.  Upendra Kushwaha who had led RLSP which had merged into JD(U) now showing signs of jumping out of JD(U) and is most likely to become once again an ally with BJP with the same trend line for   Jitan Ram Manjhi and his HAM they will most likely end up in the BJP camp along with the two LJP factions (RLJP and LJP(RV))

Bihar's political ecosystem is an example of the principles of balance of power especially with "there are no permentate friends or enemies only permentate interests"

[jaichind]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/shinde-faction-to-get-shiv-sena-name-and-bow-arrow-symbol-orders-ec-101676640175296.html

"Shinde faction to get Shiv Sena name and bow-arrow symbol, orders EC"

Big victory for BSHS in Maharastra.  EC gives SHS symbol and name to BSHS.  So after this, it will be SHS for the Shinde faction and SHS(U) for the Uddhav faction.  The big test will come at the BMC election.  I suspect this is why the BMC election was delayed. It was delayed for this decision so Shinde can have the party name and symbol for the BMC election.

[jaichind]

So with the EC decision, the SHS split becomes final.  It will be SHS led by Shinde and SHS(U) led by  Uddhav Thackeray.

It is interesting because SHS will become the SHS of Bal Thackeray of hard Hindutava Hindu nationalism while SHS(U) will become the SHS of Prabodhankar Thackeray (Bal Thackeray's father) of soft Hindutava based on Marathi regionalism and Hindu reformism.

Bal Thackeray SHS in the 1970s and 1980s were sort of a combination of both these streams.  It is not well known but in the 1980s SHS was in alliance with the Muslim AIML in various elections.  It was only with the rise of the BJP in the early 1990s based on the Ayodhya issue did SHS turn toward 100% hard Hindu nationalism.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/bangalore/chase-away-tipu-lovers-who-chant-ram-bhajans-should-be-here-karnataka-bjp-chief-8447291/

"‘Chase away Tipu lovers, only those who chant Ram bhajans should be here’: Karnataka BJP chief Kateel"

Karnataka BJP chief making a big deal about Tipu Sultan again ahead of the assembly elections. It makes it clear that the anti-Mulsim plank will again be key for BJP's planned re-election campaign.

Tipu Sultan was the de facto ruler of  Mysore (he ruled in the name of the nominal Hindu maharaja) in the late 1700s and was one of the few Indian rulers at the time that fought the British every step of the way.  Tipu Sultan was considered an Indian nationalist hero in post-Independence India and especially in Karnataka but his being a Muslim became a problem for the BJP brand of Indian nationalism.



Over the last 2-3 decades both the national and Karnataka BJP has been trying to "erase" Tipu Sultan from the culture and rebrand him as a Muslim anti-Hindu fanatic (here I do feel BJP has its history wrong) and not an anti-British nationalist hero.

I have always been fascinated by the story and history of Tipu Sultan and his father Hyder Ali.   Whenever I meet an Indian from Karnataka I always ask them about their view of Tipu Sultan.

[jaichind]

https://www.truescoopnews.com/newsdetail/i-eat-beef-and-i-am-in-bjp-i-see-no-problem-in-it-meghalaya-bjp-chief

"'I eat beef and I am in BJP, I see no problem in it': Meghalaya BJP chief"

Meghalaya is only around 12% Hindu so the local BJP has to deviate from the national BJP to survive.

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/elections/assembly-elections/meghalaya/in-meghalaya-its-allies-against-each-other/articleshow/98031441.cms

"In Meghalaya, it’s allies against each other"

In Meghalaya, the ruling NPP is spending all its time attacking AITC and INC while its former allies BJP and UDP are spending all their time attacking NPP.  It seems on the ground there is high anti-incumbency so UDP and BJP decided to "break" with NPP to try to capture the anti-NPP vote.  NPP knows that its path toward being the largest party is to hope for an even split of the anti-NPP vote so they have the incentive to try to push the anti-NPP vote away from AITC and INC.
 
INC lost all its MLAs so it is running a bunch of fresh new and young faces.  The good news for INC is that this allows them to capture the youth vote.  The bad news for INC is that any elected INC MLA will have no real attachment to INC and will easily defect to parties like NPP or AITC after the election.

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/why-george-soros-is-bound-to-lose-his-dirty-war-against-india-12175692.html

"Why George Soros is bound to lose his dirty war against India"

It seems Soros added Modi to his enemies list by calling for de facto regime change in India with Modi's ouster.  Soros might be rich but I think taking on Trump, Xi, Putin, and Modi all at once seems out of his league.  There is already a significant reaction from the BJP/Modi crowd in India.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatvnews.com/bihar/news-upendra-kushwaha-resigns-from-jdu-announces-to-form-new-party-nitish-kumar-bihar-politics-latest-updates-2023-02-20-848760

"Disgruntled JD-U leader Upendra Kushwaha resigns, forms new party"

As expected Upendra Kushwaha quit JD(U) and formed a new party, RLJD.

This is the third incarnation of a Upendra Kushwaha JD(U) splinter.  We have RSP of 2007-2009, RLSP of 2013-2021, and now RLJD 2023-. RLSP did rounds in NDA and UPA and has been allied with JD(U) within NDA (2017-2019) before leaving to join UPA and then going on his own in 2020 followed by a merger back into JD(U). 

[jaichind]

Pro-INC Lok Poll poll of North India

BJP 5 INC 7


Back in 2019, it was BJP 6 INC 8

[jaichind]

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/170223/meghalaya-govt-among-most-corrupt-in-the-country-amit-shah.html

"Meghalaya govt among 'most corrupt' in the country: Amit Shah"

BJP's Amit Shay says the Meghalaya government is among the most corrupt in India. 
Problem: Until a few weeks ago the BJP was part of the "most corrupt" government in India.

[jaichind]

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/the-likely-outcome-in-tripura-bjp-the-single-largest-party-successful-debut-of-tipra-motha

"The Likely Outcome In Tripura: BJP The Single-Largest Party; Successful Debut Of Tipra Motha"

Pro-BJP Swarajya magazine seems to admit that BJP will most likely fall short of the majority in Tripura partly because of the TIPRA surge in tribal seats.

[jaichind]

Upendra Kushwaha's third rebellion against Nitish Kumar's JD(U) in Bihar has to be viewed in the context of caste rivalries and the strategies of "sandwiching" your caste opponents

Traditionally the Upper caste dominated politics in the form of the INC.  In the late 1980s, this changed as the BJP started to displace the INC as the Upper Caste party and JD pushed forward vs backward politics.  The backward was initially led by Lalu Yadav since the Yadav caste was at the top of the OBC and led the backward mobilization. 

The Upper caste sought to counter the Yadav by seeking out allies within the middle OBC in order to "sandwich" the Yadavs.  The main middle OBC castes are the Kushwaha and Kurmi.  Nitish Kumar is a Kurmi and Upendra Kushwaha is a Kushwaha.  These two castes formed the basis of what became JD(U) which became an ally of Upper caste dominated BJP.  Nitish Kumar in charge of JD(U) was always a problem for his main lieutenant Upendra Kushwaha since the Kushwaha caste is a good deal bigger than the Kurmi caste so Upendra Kushwaha is always going to feel that he should be in charge of JD(U) or at least be Nitish Kumar's successor which in term led to various rebellions and three separate Kushwaha based JD(U) splinters.

In the meantime in order to contain Nitish Kumar's power the BJP then tried to "sandwich" JD(U) by mobilization the Dalits.  The Paswans, being the top of the Dalits in Bihar, became the main center of Dalit mobilization which in turn formed LJP.  Nitish Kumar then tried to "sandwich" the Paswan-controlled LJP by trying to mobilize the lower Dalits which he called Mahadalit into the JD(U).  This is the reason why the LJP cannot stay in an alliance with JD(U) for long since JD(U) will always try to mobilize the Mahadalit sidestepping LJP while the LJP will always try to become the leader of all Dalits.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidate list for Meghalaya and came up with my wild back-of-the-envelope guess of the results.  I most likely underestimated minor parties.

                Guess          2018
INC              9              21
INC rebel                       2
AITC             8
NCP                               1
PDF              2                4
NPP            24              20
BJP              5                2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP           12                6
KHNAM                          1
HSPDP                           2

There are two main ecosystems with Garo and Khasi-speaking clusters that have very different dynamics.  UDP only has strength in Khasi areas while the Garo branch of INC has mostly gone over tie AITC.

By region
Jaintia Hills (UDP stronger here so anti-NPP vote will go to UDP)
                Guess          2018
INC                               1
NPP              2               3
UDP              5               3
 

Khasi Hills(historically free-to-all with very splintered vote, anti-NPP vote split which helps NPP)
                Guess          2018
INC              5              10
INC rebel                       1                          
PDF              2               4
NPP            12               5
BJP              3               2
Ind-UDP                        1
UDP             7               3
KHNAM                         1
HSPDP                          2  

Garo Hills (This is where most of INC went over to AITC with some anti-NPP consolidation)
                Guess          2018
INC              4              10
INC rebel                       1
AITC             8
NCP                               1
NPP            10              12
BJP              2