Angolan 2022 general election (24 August)

[jaichind]

Afrobarometer poll (change from similar poll in 2019)

MPLA    29% (-7%)
UNITA   22% (+9%)

UNITA seems to be catching up

[jaichind]

José Eduardo dos Santos died this morning in a Barcelona hospital after several weeks in a coma.

Pity he won’t live long enough to see UNITA take over.

His daughter, Tchizé dos Santos, gave a few hints that Eduardo dos Santos was considering supporting UNITA in the August elections. But, Tchizé hates João Lourenço so much that it's not 100% certain what she says were her father's true intentions.

This part is not clear to me.  When and how did  Lourenço have a falling out with the dos Santos clan ?

[jaichind]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?

[jaichind]

Are the dos Santos children endorsing anyone in this election?

Tchizé dos Santos is openly urging his followers on social media, and also on TV interviews, to vote UNITA. It's also understood that Isabel dos Santos and another brother, who is in Angola, also support UNITA. The other children, from Ana Paula dos Santos, are supporting MPLA.

Wow.  That is amazing.  I would have thought some of them would say "vote against MPLA" but to say "vote UNITA" is an amazing statement from anyone from the dos Santos clan and show how vitriolic the relationship with  Lourenço has gotten.

[jaichind]

My understanding is that once the voting is done then all the ballots will have to be transported to Luanda to be counted versus being counted locally. If UNITA does not win they will for sure claim fraud.

[jaichind]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

[jaichind]

Memories of Zimbabwe 2018 where the official count goes one way but the opposition cherry picks a bunch of unofficial results saying they are really ahead. 

Uhh, the opposition won that time lol, as was the case with the prior elections that were rigged.

Just like this election no one really knows.  The regime is quite capable of rigging the result but the opposition is also quite capable of making up claims of winning when they lost for real. 

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it has been 9 hours since the first batch of results.  Surely some more votes have been counted since then whose tallies CNE can report?

[jaichind]

In Luanda, 77.12% of the polling places have reported and UNITA is leading almost 2 to 1:

62.9% UNITA
33.1% MPLA
  1.0% PHA
  0.9% CASA-CE
  0.9% FNLA
  0.5% PRS
  0.4% APN
  0.3% P-NJANGO

Ironic that during the Civil war in the 1980s and 1990s MPLA was strong in the urban coastal areas while UNITA was strong in inland rural areas.  It now seems to be reversed.

[jaichind]

Luanda is seen as being among the richest cities in Africa, or so I've heard. But that status masks massive amounts of urban poverty and the fact that most people in the city live in utter squalor.
That's probably boosting the UNITA vote here.

I think that wealth is mostly about a small exclusive area filled with local and foreign oil executives.  I suspect the vast majority of the city's population is not sharing in this oil wealth.

[jaichind]

Given that Luanda count is lower than the overall count it seems UNITA's vote share will only rise from here.  They will not win but their vote share will be a record for them and break the ~40% vote they got in 1992.

[jaichind]

TPA seat projection with the current 86.41% counted:


115 MPLA (-35)
  95 UNITA (+44)
    3 PRS (+1)
    2 CASA-CE (-14)
    2 FNLA (+1)
    2 PHA (new)
    1 APN (+1)
    1 P-NJANGO (new)

Looks like MPLA underperformance of last pre-election poll

[jaichind]

Official results page from CNE:

https://resultados2022eleicoesgerais.cne.ao/resultados/0

Cabinda is the place with the lowest vote reporting: just 21.7%. Here, MPLA leads UNITA by just 95 votes. Maybe 128,000 ballots to be reported.

In Luanda, looking at the turnout and the number of precincts yet to report, I would say around 500,000 ballots are yet to be released.

In Bié, 13% is yet to be counted, maybe around 50,000 ballots. In Huíla, 12% is yet to be counted, around 60,000 ballots. In Cuando Cubango, 11% is out, around 15,000 ballots. In Moxico, 10% is also out, around 21,000 ballots and in Uíge, around 37,000 ballots are out there. In the rest of provinces, 95%+ of votes are now tabulated.

It's also surprising how low turnout is being, just 46%.

By region there is a negative correlation between the 1992 and 2022 UNITA vote

[jaichind]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

[jaichind]

Maybe the low MPLA vote share is a way for the MPLA to signal to the opposition parties, especially UNITA, the following: OK, please let us be in charge for 5 more years without a fuss. We are going to be reasonable and make sure you get a share of the loot instead of us hogging everything.  And 5 years from now we promise to give you a real shot a winning,

[jaichind]

New CNE results update starting right now.

97.03% reporting:

51.1% MPLA, 124 seats
44.1% UNITA, 90
  1.1% PRS, 2
  1.0% FNLA, 2
  1.0% PHA, 2
  0.8% CASA-CE, 0
  0.5% APN, 0
  0.4% P-NJANGO, 0

At this stage I assume almost all the outstanding votes are going to be in Luanda so you figure MPLA will be below 51% but above 50% when it is all said and done.

Maybe, the electoral page has frozen and doesn't have the new updates yet. Also, I believe it was you that said this election was similar to the Zimbabwe 2018, well, the results literally mirror each other:

Angola 2022:

51.1% MPLA
44.1% UNITA

Zimbabwe 2018:

51.4% ZANU–PF
45.1% MDC–T

And there is a similar, but not the same, dynamic between Lourenço and  dos Santos when compared to Mnangagwa and  Mugabe