India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

Campaigning in Gujarat Rahul Gandhi promises $5K for the families of anyone that died of COVID-19 and free electricity for farmers as well as free electricity for 300 units of electricity for non-farmers if INC comes to power.  Look for the BJP to match this in some way.

The main problem here is Rahul Gandhi is writing political checks when he has no formal leadership role in INC.  If he is going to run around doing this he should get run for INC Prez and let the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections results be the make or break on whether the Gandhi clan should continue to lead INC.

[jaichind]

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/bihar-cm-nitish-kumar-on-two-day-visit-to-delhi-to-meet-opposition-leaders-122090500269_1.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar on two-day visit to Delhi, to meet Opposition leaders"

It seems JD(U) Bihar CM Nitish Kumar has already met with RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad Yadav to discuss the 2024 LS election strategy and now he is going to visit Rahul Gandhi to discuss the 2024 election strategy.  Just like my earlier comments this entire setup is absurd where Rahul Gandhi is acting as INC leader but does not come out to actually take the formal title of leader and accept responsibility if things do go well.

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/politics/bjp-shinde-camp-wants-a-thackeray-in-its-corner-to-wear-out-another-takes-to-ganpati-diplomacy/1113905/

"BJP-Shinde camp wants a Thackeray in its corner to wear out another, takes to Ganpati diplomacy"

Upcoming civic polls in Maharastra, especially the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation,  will be a make or break on which SHS faction is the "real SHS".

With the SHS(Uddhav Thackeray) most likely going with an alliance with INC-NCP to take on BJP-SHS(Shinde), SHS(Shinde) CM Eknath Shinde has visited Raj Thackeray hoping for some tactic alliance with NMS and mitigate the "Thackeray" name advantage that SHS(Uddhav Thackeray) will clearly have.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/jharkhand-majority-test-live-updates-hemant-sorens-majority-test-today-amid-jharkhand-crisis-3316229

"Highlights: Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren Wins Majority Test With 48 Votes"

As the Jharkhand political crisis drags on JMM CM Hemant Soren called a VONC as a show of strength by having all UPA MLA vote for it to show that the UPA alliance will not be broken even if he is removed as a MLA.

[jaichind]

Campaigning in Gujarat Rahul Gandhi promises $5K for the families of anyone that died of COVID-19 and free electricity for farmers as well as free electricity for 300 units of electricity for non-farmers if INC comes to power.  Look for the BJP to match this in some way.

The main problem here is Rahul Gandhi is writing political checks when he has no formal leadership role in INC.  If he is going to run around doing this he should get run for INC Prez and let the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections results be the make or break on whether the Gandhi clan should continue to lead INC.

Well isn't he still the main face of the Congress and the person who people associate with the Congress brand? Like if you asked some random person who the leaders of the Congress were, then they'd reply Rahul and Sonia Gandhi.

Agreed.  But that is the core of my complaint.  If Rahul Gandhi makes the call then he should just become INC Prez and accept credit or blame for the results.  He is trying to set it up as heads I win tails you lose by avoiding accountability for any setbacks.

[jaichind]

Lok poll for Karnataka assembly elections in 2023

INC     109
BJP       89
JD(S)    21
Others    5

Looks like re-run of 2018 with BJP and INC reversed

[jaichind]

I even doubt Indians will go for a repeat of 2004 and 2009 where INC put up a politician who was not from the Gandhi Family as their PM candidate but having the Gandhi Family controlling things behind the scenes.

At this stage, I think the best thing for INC to do is for Rahul Gandhi to take over as Prez and see what he can do with the 2022 and 2023 assembly elections.   If under Rahul Gandhi's leadership INC can

a) Flip HP in 2022 and repeat 2017 results in Gujarat
b) Outperform in Tripura and Meghalaya in early 2023
c) Flip Karnataka in early 2023
d) Flip MP, hold Chhattisgarh and prevent a landslide defeat in Rajasthan in late 2023

Then it is reasonable to say that under Rahul Gandhi the INC collapse has been prevented (even though recovery is still some time away) and the INC can push Rahul Gandhi as the PM face of the opposition in 2024.  If INC does not achieve these results then the Gandhi clan should retire to make way for another new face who will NOT be the PM face for the opposition in 2024 but will back a grand opposition alliance and who will instead focus on 2029 as the year of INC revival.

[jaichind]

https://thewire.in/politics/goa-congress-mlas-bjp-split

"Eight Goa Congress MLAs, Including Former CM, Join BJP"

8 out of 11 INC MLAs in Goa join BJP.  Since this is more than 2/3 of the INC caucus this does not trigger the anti-defection law.  It seems if INC does not come to power in Goa after an election most of its MLA defect to the ruling party (in this case BJP.)  

In 2017 INC won 17 seats but by the time the 2022 assembly elections came around it had only 1 MLA as most of its MLA defected to BJP and a couple went over to other parties like AITC.

In 2022 INC won 11 seats but by now it already is down to 3 MLA.  I am sure by the next election in 2027 INC will be left with no MLAs.

Among the defectors is Michael Lobo who was with the BJP as a MLA and a key leader since 2007 but defected to INC right before the election hoping to become CM if INC wins the 2022 Goa assembly election.  He is now defecting back to BJP after 7 months in INC.  It is amazing that the BJP will take him back but that is the nature of politics.

[jaichind]

Goa BJP CM meeting the new 8 INC defectors to the BJP

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/goa-assembly-election-congress-candidates-loyalty-pledge-7737108/

"Goa Congress candidates pledge to remain loyal to party after polls"

After most of the INC caucus of 2017 defected to BJP or other parties like ATIC the INC this time made 36 INC candidates take an oath of loyalty to INC.  Just to cover all possible bases they had to take the oath in a Hindu temple, a Christian church, and a Muslim mosque separately.  

So 8 of these INC candidates that won broke the oath they took earlier this year.  But all of them have workarounds and explanations.

For example, one of them is former Goa INC CM Digamber Kamat said that he believes in God and it is true that they had taken an oath not to leave INC ahead of Polls, but he again went to God and asked about a new decision and God agreed, therefore, he left INC and joined BJP.

The Catholic Church should come in and investigate Digamber Kamat's direct communication with God and perhaps he could be given status of Saint or something after he passes on.

[jaichind]

% of the population of each state that can speak Hindi.

The purple states are what make up the "Hindi heartland"

Note that Bihar and Jharkhand are below 90% because

a) In Northern Bihar many people speak Maithili and might never have learned Hindi.  During the 1950s there was a move to reorganize India along linguistic states.  It was always not clear why a Maithili-based Mithilanchal was never created.  It seems to be the failure of the Maithili-speaking elites to organize and press their case.

b) In Jharkhand there is a large backward tribal population and a bunch of them never went to a real school and never really learned Hindi since in their villages they would speak various tribal languages.

In TN and Kerala, the % of the population that can speak Hindi is ultra-low, especially in TN.  In TN I think the population takes pride in not learning Hindi as part of their resistance to their perceived view that the Indian government (be it INC or BJP) has and will try to impose Hindi.

[jaichind]

The reason why defections are so common in Goa is because of Goa's position as an entrepot.    The number of funds that passes through the Goa CM, ministers, and ruling party MLA is very large on a per capita basis.  So there is a lot of money to be made by being a ruling party MLA and especially a minister. Ergo election time everyone fights tooth and nail to get elected and after the election, there is a wave of defections to the winning side to get in on the cash which is often needed to fund the next election.

[jaichind]

In other words, the politicians there are quite literally "bought and paid for"

This has been a problem in Indian politics since the 1960s which led to crescendos of mass defections of MLAs and sometimes MPs.  In the 1980s to stem this trend, the Anti-Defection Law was passed with limited defections to the size of at least 1/3 of a party caucus which was later raised to 2/3.   This seems to not have stopped the buying of MLAs but merely shifted upward the cost of doing so had limited the game to parties that have access to very large vested interests that can fund such purchases.   

One way out could be to shift to a mainland Europe election system more on the PR side where an MP or MLA would be expelled from the legislature and replaced with the next person on the party list but that will most likely mean no majority government is ever possible and the game become one of buying parties versus blocs of MLAs.

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/article/political-pulse/haryana-inld-revival-chutala-devi-lal-samman-rally-8142129/

"Eyeing INLD revival via a mega ‘third front’ show, Chautala goes all out for Devi Lal Samman rally"

In Haryana, there are signs that INLD has given up any chances of reconciliation with the BJP and will become part of an anti-BJP front.  INLD splinter JJP it seems is likely to align with BJP in the 2024 assembly elections so INLD is trying to look for options in its battle against JJP for the Jat vote.

The BJP has a non-Jat CM and had hoped to corner the non-Jat vote in the 2019 assembly elections but it seems to not have worked the Jat vote tactically voted for JJP or INC to defeat BJP leading to the BJP underperforming and needing JJP to form a majority.  This time around it seems BJP will want JJP to be on its side to get its share of the Jat vote.

INLD of course will face the old problem of former BJP allies.  INLD has its roots as an anti-INC party to counter INC hegemony in the 1970s and 1980s.  Now that the threat is BJP hegemony it would make sense to ally with INC but that runs counter to its historical narrative.  So it is stuck being choosing to be part of an anti-BJP anti-INC Third front or alliance with INC.  Parties like JD(U) and NCP which are allies with INC are pushing for the alliance with INC route while parties like TRS which still see INC as a rival (in Telegana) are pushing the Third Front route.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat elections

BJP        126
SHS(E)    39 

NCP       102
INC         58
SHS(U)    21

Others     81

BJP and especially NCP are especially strong in rural Gram Panchayat elections while INC and SHS (both factions) are stronger in urban areas.  Still, this is a strong performance by both BJP and NCP while the SHS split clearly hurt both factions.   In the end, MVA (NCP INC SHS(U)) won 181 closely edging out NDA (BJP SHS(E)) 165.

[jaichind]

How Big is this news:

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/punjab-former-chief-minister-amarinder-singh-to-join-bjp-next-week-432358?utm_source=vuukle&utm_medium=talk_of_town

Not very.  It was mostly expected.  Captain Amarinder Singh at age 80 is pretty much at the end of his political career anyway.  This move just just allows a few of his followers in his INC splinter PLC to find a home in the BJP.  PLC mostly bombed in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections so this will have almost zero impact on political alignments.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rajasthan-chief-minister-ashok-gehlot-to-run-for-congress-president-sources-3358887

"Ashok Gehlot To Run For Congress President, Say Sources"

The develoment comes just days after the Rajasthan government unanimously passed a resolution in favour of Rahul Gandhi as party chief.

Very clear sign that Rahul Gandhi has made a call not to become INC Prez and instead will have Rajasthan INC CM Ashok Gehlot run instead.  It seems the Gandhi clan must not be optimistic on INC chances in the assembly elections later this year and in 2023.

[jaichind]

Maharashtra Gram Panchayat elections final results

BJP       190
SHS(E)   42

NCP      134
INC         84
SHS(U)   39

Others   108

So it is NDA at 232 vs MVA at 257.  MVA has a narrow edge with SHS(U) and SHS(E) roughly at parity.  If so given that in urban areas one would expect SHS(U) to be stronger than SHS(E) then all things equal SHS(U) is the slightly stronger of the two SHS factions.  Of course the big test will the the 2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election later this year.

Still the trend is clear.  Unless SHS can reunite then on the long run Maharashtra might turn into as BJP vs NCP state just like WB has become a BJP vs AITC state.

[jaichind]

Looking at how high the percentage is in Maharashtra, it's not hard to understand the appeal of Marathi nationalism.

From a political standpoint this isn't important, but I'm curious as to what percentage of the people listed here as Hindi-speakers actually speak Hindi as opposed to some other language. Bhojpuri, for instance, is not mutually intelligible with Hindi (in fact it is in the same language family as Bengali and not Hindi), but for political reasons the state has always considered it a dialect of Hindi.

For Maharashtra the number  is big because
a) Large number of immigrants from Hindi heartland
b) It has Mumbai which is a commercial hub so knowing more languages would be more useful
c) Maharashtra used to be part of Bombey state which included Maharashtra and Gujarat.  So a lot of people in Maharashtra actually are Gujarati and speak Gujarati.  So I suspect Hindi becomes a language people learn as a neutral language as well

To be fair a) is by far the largest factor.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/tharoor-versus-gehlot-likely-for-cong-prez-poll-433361

"Shashi Tharoor versus Ashok Gehlot likely for Congress president poll"

It seems it will be Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot vs Kerala MP Shashi Tharoor for the race for INC Prez.

Shashi Tharoor appeals to urban English-speaking liberal elites while Ashok Gehlot will appeal to the Hindi belt grassroots.  It is clear that the Gandhi clan wants Ashok Gehlot to win but for Shashi Tharoor to run as a foil to show "democracy" in INC.

[jaichind]

Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and most likely the next INC Prez (assuming Rahul Gandhi does not do a last-minute U-turn and contest) is very close to the Gandhi clan.  He comes from a humble background with his father being a traveling magician.   He joined INC very early in his life and by chance was identified by Indira Gandhi to promote inside the INC hierarchy.  One thing he used to do was to do magic tricks for Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi when they were kids.  Ashok Gehlot is a very willy and effective politician but must mostly be viewed as a 家臣 (or Family Minister) which means that he owns his political career to the ruling political family and ties his fate and loyalty to that family over the needs of the government.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/tharoor-versus-gehlot-likely-for-cong-prez-poll-433361

"Shashi Tharoor versus Ashok Gehlot likely for Congress president poll"

It seems it will be Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot vs Kerala MP Shashi Tharoor for the race for INC Prez.

Shashi Tharoor appeals to urban English-speaking liberal elites while Ashok Gehlot will appeal to the Hindi belt grassroots.  It is clear that the Gandhi clan wants Ashok Gehlot to win but for Shashi Tharoor to run as a foil to show "democracy" in INC.

Has killing his wife not ended Shashi Tharoor's political career?

Yeah that whole episode was weird.  On the other hand he was cleared of all charges last year.

[jaichind]

Still no date for the critical 2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections which were supposed to take place in Sept or Oct after delimitation.  It looks like it taking place in Oct is unlikely.

Municipal Corporation elections being delayed for large megacities is a trend in India.  The Greater Bengaluru Municipal Corporation election in Karnataka was supposed to be taken place in 2020 but it kept on being delayed over delimitation.  The same thing for the Delhi Municipal Corporation election which was supposed to be in May but it seems it will drag out forever to even decide on a date for the election.

What is really going on is that cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru are cash cows for politicians.  So the question is who gets the loot?  If the  Municipal Corporation is active then they get to make a lot of decisions with respect to land allocation and distribution which is where the money is.  But if municipal corporations are inactive then the state government is in de facto control.  This means rural MLAs that dominate the state assembly can get in on the cash.  This creates an incentive to delay these elections by the rural MLAs that dominate the state assembly.

[jaichind]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/will-certainly-contest-for-congress-presidents-post-says-ashok-gehlot-434560

"Non-Gandhi Congress chief it'll be; Rahul tells Ashok Gehlot no Gandhi will run"

INC Rajasthan CM  Ashok Gehlot will run as INC Prez after Rahul Gandhi makes it clear to  Ashok Gehlot that he will not run.

This is suboptimal but for INC to make the best of it this should mean Ashok Gehlot should stop down as Rajasthan CM after he wins the INC Prez election so he can work as a full-time INC Prez.  This will pave the way for Sachin Pilot to be CM and lead a potentially united INC into the 2023  Rajasthan assembly elections.  INC will for sure lose in  Rajasthan in 2023 but can potentially avoid a landslide defeat like in 2003 and 2013 and keep it close as BJP did in 2008 and 2018.  Sachin Pilot could then potentially lead INC to victory in 2028 in Rajasthan. Everything now depends on Ashok Gehlot playing a role to reunify the Rajasthan INC between Ashok Gehlot and  Sachin Pilot factions.  If  Ashok Gehlot insists on staying on as Rajasthan CM while being INC Prez it will be a disaster for INC.

[jaichind]

With MP assembly elections a year away the freebies are getting started.  The BJP government announced that all high school seniors that score about 75% on their end-of-year exams (it seems there will be around 92K of them) will get a free laptop from the state government.  This will not cost that much (most likely around $30 million) but I am sure this is the start of the freebies as the election gets closer.