India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec

[jaichind]

India Today Mood of the Nation poll has BJP still well ahead at the national level
The macro national environment is clearly very favorable for BJP

Solid Modi job performance


Massive Modi lead over Rahul Gandhi for PM




Rahul Gandhi behind as leader of Opposition


Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath neck-to-neck as Modi successor as leader of BJP


If LS election were today NDA at 296 UP at 127 with BJP beating INC 271 to 62

[jaichind]

In Punjab, the SAD-BSP seats sharing formula seems to be SAD 97 BSP 20.  BSP getting such few seats shows how weak BSP is in Punjab that SAD rather run in a bunch of Hindu seats than let BSP run there.  Unless BJP can outperform in the Hindu seats it seems INC is in a strong position in the Hindu seats.

[jaichind]

In Uttarakhand, BJP MLA Harak Singh Rawat might defect back to INC due to BJP not being willing to give a ticket to his daughter-in-law.  Harak Singh Rawat was a significant INC leader but took a bunch of INC MLAs to defect to BJP because INC was not willing to appoint him to be CM.  Now he is openly barging for more power for his family or else he will go back to INC and I assume take back some of the ex-INC and now BJP MLAs.  

I do like the fact that he is open about this versus trying to hide behind some made-up ideological reasons for these defections and counter-defections.

https://www.jagran.com/uttarakhand/dehradun-city-22386701.html

The problem for the BJP is if they accommodate Harak Singh Rawat then other local BJP factions will object and them might in turn rebel.

It seems BJP struck first and expelled Harak Singh Rawat from BJP which cut the legs of his negotiations position with INC.  Worst for him, the INC campaign is being led by former INC CM Harish Rawat who Harak Singh Rawat's 2016 rebellion and defection to BJP tried to overthrow.  So now Harak Singh Rawat has to beg for forgiveness from Harish Rawat before being let back into INC and run on the INC ticket.  This fact leads to articles like

https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/harish-rawat-is-my-elder-brother-can-apologise-to-him-a-100-times-expelled-uttarakhand-bjp-minister-harak-singh/850556

"Harish Rawat is my elder brother, can apologise to him a 100 times: Expelled Uttarakhand BJP minister Harak Singh"

It seems the INC and BJP are coordinating against Harak Singh Rawat given his track record of betraying and blackmailing both parties.

Latest  Harak Singh Rawat public of letter of apology to INC former CM Harish Rawat who is leading the INC campaign as his public crawl to try to get back into INC continues

In it it says "Joining BJP Was Biggest Mistake of My Political Career"

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times Goa poll

INC-GFP     17
BJP            16
MGP-AITC    4
AAP             1
RGP             0
Others         2


AITC is still trying to get an alliance with INC.  What AITC is proposing for seat sharing is INC 18 seats AITC 16 seats MGP 6 seats.  This is almost certain to be turned down INC.

[jaichind]

In Punjab, it seems ex-INC CM and now leader of INC splinter PLC Amarinder Singh will contest in Amritsar East against his old nemesis and now INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu.  Navjot Singh Sidhu won here in 2017 as the INC candidate in a landslide and won here in 2012 as the BJP candidate winning only because of an INC rebel cutting into the INC vote.  I am sure INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi deep down hope that Amarinder Singh beats Navjot Singh Sidhu here.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/uttar-pradesh-assembly-elections-2022-congress-fields-actor-model-archana-gautam-from-hastinapur-in-up-polls-2709164

"Congress Fields Actor-Model Archana Gautam From Hastinapur In UP Polls"

In UP as part of INC's women empowerment brand offensive, Priyanka Gandhi handpicked Miss Bikini India 2018 Archana Gautam who since became an actress to run for INC.  She is a Dalit which also helps add to the intended INC targeting of Dalit votes.

Picture of Archana Gautam as posted in her twitter

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/a-contest-to-watch-out-for-couple-in-race-for-bjp-ticket-from-same-seat-7730695/

"A contest to watch out for: Couple in race for BJP ticket from same seat"

For the 2017 assembly a BJP leader, Dayashankar Singh, was going to contest Sarojini Nagar in Lucknow district.  But in 2016 he made derogatory remarks against BSP leader Mayawati and was expelled from the BJP.  Dayashankar Singh maneuvered to get his wife Swati Singh to be the BJP candidate and she won as part of the 2017 BJP landslide.  Soon afterward Dayashankar Singh was let back into the BJP.  This time around Dayashankar Singh wants this seat back and his wife insists on running for re-election.  I suspect this is a maneuver by this couple to put the attention on them and push out any other BJP aspirant for the seat.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times poll for Punjab

AAP                      50
INC                      42
SAD-BSP              22
BJP-PLC-SAD(S)     3


Pretty good result for SAD-BSP given the circumstances.  Other polls have them a lot lower.

[jaichind]

In Punjab, it seems ex-INC CM and now leader of INC splinter PLC Amarinder Singh will contest in Amritsar East against his old nemesis and now INC Punjab Prez Navjot Singh Sidhu.  Navjot Singh Sidhu won here in 2017 as the INC candidate in a landslide and won here in 2012 as the BJP candidate winning only because of an INC rebel cutting into the INC vote.  I am sure INC CM Charanjit Singh Channi deep down hope that Amarinder Singh beats Navjot Singh Sidhu here.

It seems in the end  ex-INC CM and now leader of INC splinter PLC Amarinder Singh will contest in his old Patiala seat instead of going after Navjot Singh Sidhu in Amritsar East

[jaichind]

https://indianexpress.com/elections/goa-assembly-election-congress-candidates-loyalty-pledge-7737108/

"Goa Congress candidates pledge to remain loyal to party after polls"

After most of the INC caucus of 2017 defected to BJP or other parties like ATIC the INC this time made 36 INC candidates take an oath of loyalty to INC.  Just to cover all possible bases they had to take the oath in a Hindu temple, a Christian church, and a Muslim mosque separately. 

[jaichind]

UP poll of polls

[jaichind]

Most of the candidate list is out for the first 2 phases in UP which are all Western UP.  Main takeaways

1) BJP is renominating around 80%-85% of sitting MLA which is the bulk of candidates given the 2017 BJP landslide.   About 30% of 2017 BJP losers are renominated
2) SP is renominating almost all of its 2017 winners and about half of its 2017 2nd place finishers.
3) A few 2017 BJP candidates have defected to SP as did a couple of 2017 SP/RLD candidates who defected to the BJP
4) BSP only renominated one 2017 winner with the other one defecting to the BJP while not renominating any of its 2017 losers.  In Japan, there is a rule "If you win you are LDP."  In India, there is  a negative version of that rule "if you do not win you are not BSP"
5) On the flip side large number of 2017 BSP candidates are now running for BJP SP and even INC.

This is a good time to talk about why there are so many defections from the BSP candidate ranks.  Historically BSP has a core 17% vote of most Jatav Dalits and is a part of the non-Jatav Dalits that vote BSP no matter who the BSP candidate is.    BSP lacks funds so they pretty much sell tickets to various local kingpins who have their own local vote.  These local kingpins running as BSP can add their vote share to the 17% BSP vote share and in some cases get to 30% where they can win.  After they win since they paid the BSP already they feel they owe nothing to BSP.  If BSP is in a position to form the government clearly they will stay in BSP hoping to share in the power.  If the BSP has no prospects of forming a government these MLAs jump ship to join up with the party that will form a government.    This why BSP often make opportunistic deals in the past (with BJP SP and INC) just to get into power since they know not being in government means all their MLAs will eventually defect.  These days the core 17% BSP vote is most likely lower so the quality of the local kingpins that are willing to pay for a ticket is going down and often these kingpins will just head over to BJP SP or even INC.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times poll on Manipur.  Narrow BJP lead over INC.  Hung assembly.

[jaichind]

The wife vs wife battle from 2017 Amethi will continue in 2022 but inside the BJP.

Write-up from 2017

In the Rahul Gandhi's pocket borough of Amethi we are most likely to  see a battle of "Wife vs Wife."  
Everything centers around one Sanjay Singh who is from the Amethi royal family and is known as "Raja of Amethi."  



Sanjay Singh was in the INC in the 1970s and 1980s and was quite close to the Gandhi clan.  When his relative and former INC UP CM VP Singh bolted from INC and formed JD he defected to JD and was a member of the VP Singh JD cabinet.  He then defected to BJP and won from Amethi in the 1998 LS election.  He even ran against Sonia Gandhi on the BJP ticket in 1999 in a losing effort.    Later he defected back to the INC and became a key member of the INC team in UP.  He is currently an INC MP in the RS.

Sanjay Singh is married to one Garima Singh



But back in 1988 Sanjay Singh was implicated in the murder of his good friend and famous badminton player Syed Modi.  It seems that Sanjay Singh was having an affair with Syed Modi's wife Amita Kulkarni and both of them plotted to murder Syed Modi.  

Picture of Sanjay Singh with Amita Kulkarni.


In the end Sanjay Singh and Amita Kulkarni were acquitted of murder charges after years of investigations and trials.  

Sanjay Singh then proceeded divorce his current wife Garima Singh and married Amita Kulkarni.   Garima Singh claims that the divorce was not final and claims that Sanjay Singh's marriage to Amita Kulkarni is null and void.  Sanjay Singh and then tried to get the courts to throw Garima Singh and their children out of the palace he lives in.



And is an ongoing court case.  

Anyway.  It seems that Garima Singh has joined BJP who will field her in the Amethi seats.  Amita Kulkarni as Sanjay Singh's de facto wife won in Amethi in 2002 running for BJP and won in 2007 running for INC.  She ran as INC candidate in 2012 and lost to SP.   SP-INC alliance will most likely grant Amethi to INC who will most likely field Amita Kulkarni.  So the election will be "Wife vs Wife."

Wife #1 BJP Garima Singh defeated Wife #2 INC Amita Kulkarni in 2017.  In 2019 Sanjay Singh and wife #2 Amita Kulkarni rejoined BJP.  Wife #2 Amita Kulkarni is looking for be nominated by the BJP for the  Amethi seat while Wife #1 Garima Singh is looking to be re-nominated  So now it is a rerun of 2017 wife vs wife battle but within the BJP nomination process.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times poll on Uttarakhand.  Tiny INC lead

[jaichind]

https://www.republicworld.com/elections/goa/goa-elections-ex-cm-pratapsingh-rane-confirms-poll-plunge-pitted-against-daughter-in-law-articleshow.html

"Goa Elections: Ex-CM Pratapsingh Rane Confirms Poll Plunge, Pitted Against Daughter-in-law"

INC ex-CM Pratapsingh Rane will face his daughter-in-law running for the BJP.  Pratapsingh Rane's son Vishwajit Pratapsingh Rane won in 2017 in a seat next door on an INC ticket but defected to BJP.  Vishwajit Pratapsingh Rane will run for re-election for BJP and it appears his wife will be the BJP candidate to take on his father next door.

[jaichind]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rpn-singh-quits-congress-personal-jolt-to-priyanka-rahul-gandhi/articleshow/89116026.cms

"RPN Singh quits Congress: Personal jolt to Priyanka, Rahul Gandhi"

INC Eastern UP OBC leader RPN Singh joins BJP.  This pretty much means almost all of "Team Rahul Gandhi" have defected to BJP. 

Back after Rahul Gandhi became a MP in 2004 when UPA came to power he formed what many called  "Team Rahul Gandhi" which were younger rising INC leaders which were scions of powerful INC families just like Rahul Gandhi was.    They were

Jyotiraditya Scindia of MP - defected to BJP after he was passed over as MP CM and lost his seat to the BJP in the 2019 LS elections.  BJP needed him  to break the INC government in MP

Jitin Prasada of Western UP - Brahmin face of INC in Western UP in June 2021 when it was clear that  Priyanka Gandhi is going to be the face of INC in UP and her being a Brahmin does narrow his strength as Brahmin leader.  BJP is in trouble with Brahmins due to Brahmin-Thakur rivalry and Yogi Adityanath being viewed as pro-Thakur.

RPN Singh of Eastern UP - OBC face of INC in Eastern UP.  There have been talks of him joining the BJP for a while.  Various BJP OBC leaders have objected due to them viewing him as a threat to their power within BJP.  Now that a bunch of Eastern UP BJP OBC leaders has defected to SP this opens the way up for RPN Singh to join BJP.

Sachin Pilot of Rajasthan - He has been in de facto on and off rebellion after he was passed over as CM of Rajasthan in 2018.  There have been talks of him defecting to BJP but his price seems to be that BJP makes him CM of Rajasthan which BJP seems to refuse to pay.

Milind Deora of Mahastrata - Has mostly been sidelined after leading a losing INC effort in the 2019 LS elections.  If Rahul Gandhi comes back as INC Prez later this year I suspect he will get promoted.  He is the only one left of the 2004 "Team Rahul Gandhi" that is will really with Rahul Gandhi.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/mayawati-factor-bahujan-samaj-party-uttar-pradesh-bipolar-contest-1904770-2022-01-26

"The Mayawati factor: Can BSP make space for itself in UP’s bipolar contest?"

Has this useful chart on BSP in UP assembly elections


Note that the 2017 BSP vote was actually not that bad and was mostly above what many had expected.  But due to polarization around BJP, it was a disaster for BSP in terms of seats.  India Today points out that this time it will be even worse for BSP as the election becomes a BJP-SP battle.

The idea is that BSP has a core 15%-17% vote and could get another 5%-7% more with social engineering and candidate selection.  This works well in a 4 party system but begins to break down in a 3- or 2.5- party system AND this core vote seems to be eroding.

[jaichind]

I looked over the candidates in the 40 Goa seats.

Out of the 40 winners from 2017, 36 will run again.

Out of the 36 that will run again, only 8 will run for the same party as 2017 (I count independent as a "party" as there are a few 2017 independent winners that will run for a party this time.)

Out of the 4 that will not run
1 retired (INC) but his daughter-in-law will run for another party (BJP) so we should count this as a defection
1 died in office but son will run for the same party (BJP)
1 retired but his son will run as a rebel (BJP)
1 resigned to make way for CM who died in office CM but deceased CM's son will run as a rebel (BJP)

If you count these relatives who are running for a different party as defections then the turnover is massive.

The Cortalim seat is very fun: The 2017 BJP winner will run for AAP, the 2016 AAP candidate will run for INC and the 2017 INC candidate will run for AITC.  
Same for the Vasco da Gama seat: The 2017 BJP winner will run for INC, the 2017 BJP rebel will run for BJP, and the 2017 INC candidate will run for AITC.

It is a game of musical chairs.

[jaichind]

LokPoll poll of Goa

INC-GFP      18
BJP             14
MAG-AITC     3
AAP              1
Others          4

Seems like a re-run of 2017 with AAP underperforming and the anti-BJP vote consolidating to push INC ahead of BJP. Others 4 means various rebels (mostly BJP and INC) will do well.

[jaichind]

Anti-BJP Democracy Times UP poll

BJP+    217
SP+     169
BSP       12
INC         3
Others     2


Successful consolidation of the anti-BJP vote behind SP drives BJP close to losing overall majority.

[jaichind]

In UP out of 262 seats SP has declared candidates 45 are Muslim and 40 are Yadav.  A large number is given to non-Yadav OBC.  The remaining seats in Eastern UP will be even more non-Yadav OBC heavy.  SP this time around is assuming that Muslim and Yadav voters will come their way and focusing on beating BJP with the non-Yadav OBC vote.

The 2022 SP campaign reminds me a lot of the 2016 Trump campaign in the early Fall of 2016.  The incumbent party clearly has some anti-incumbency running against it but has too many structural and organizational advantages for the opposition to win.  SP can only win by pulling an inside straight which Trump ended up doing.  The SP inside straight would be

a) SP holds Yadav votes against BJP attack
b) SP beats BSP and INC with the Muslim vote by a decisive margin
c) SP had upper hand over BJP with non-Yadav OBCs
d) BSP and INC does well with non-Jatav Dalits relative to BJP
e) BSP holds Jatav Dalits against BSP attack
f) BSP non-Yadav OBC candidate eats into the BJP non-Yadav OBC votes versus the SP

If all of them end up being true then SP+ has a narrow path toward the majority.  It is less likely than not but there is a path.

[jaichind]

Jan Ki Baat-India News poll for UP

Clear signs of polarization of anti-BJP vote behind SP+ but not enough to stop a reduced BJP majority

[jaichind]

INC vote share in UP assembly elections

1977: 31.80%
1980: 37.47%
1985: 38.62%
1989: 27.39%
1991: 16.77% <- BJP takes INC Upper caste vote while BSP takes INC Dalit vote
1993: 14.36%
1996:   8.10%  <- alliance with BSP
2002:   8.96%
2007:   8.60%
2012: 11.63%
2017:   6.30% <- alliance with SP

Every time INC forms an alliance its vote share drops.  In 1989 there was a swing from INC to JD mostly on the corruption issue.  In 1991 the Ayodhya temple movement shifted the INC Upper Caste vote base to BJP while also losing some Dalit votes to BSP.   In 1996 INC formed an alliance with BSP which means most of its Dalit base shifted to BSP driving the INC vote base to 8%-9%.  In 2012 the BJP was in bad shape so some of the pro-BJP anti-SP anti-BSP votes tactically voted for INC.  In 2017 INC formed an alliance with SP which meant what was left of its Muslim-based shifted to SP.  I suspect this time around INC vote share will be in the 4%-6% range.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/congress-follows-assam-model-in-manipur-forms-six-party-alliance-2733991

"Congress Follows Assam Model In Manipur, Forms Six-Party Alliance"

In Manipur INC forms alliance with CPM CPI RSP AIFB and JD(S).   I assume most of these parties will get 1-2 seats each at most.