Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jaichind]

It is reasonable to expect MDB to work with whoever is the Prez but I am not sure PSD will work with Lula unless he compromises on policy.

I wonder how effective will Bolsonaro be at holding his bloc together in opposition.  What are the chances he will try to run in 2026?  That would be an effective way to maintain his bloc.

[jaichind]

I think my biggest concern going into the runoff is what election evening will look like on the 30th. We already saw Bolsonaro overperforming by five percent early yesterday before gradually losing ground to later-reporting Lula areas. If the election is close enough and there really is a threat of some sort of anti-democratic action by Bolsonaro and his supporters, they will likely (like Trump) use the mirage of an early Bolsonaro lead to enact whatever plan they might have in the works.

But is not the count bias of right-leaning areas being counted earlier well known in Brazil?

[jaichind]

The pollster made an hypothesis concerning the differences between the polls and the actual results: they think that there were some voters who hate PT but they don't love Bolsonaro, these voters were thinking in voting for Ciro Gomes or Simone Tebet in the 1st round and for Bolsonaro in the runoff, and since the polls in the eve considered the possibility of Lula winning already in the 1st round, they decided to antecipate their vote to Bolsonaro as a tatical vote, in order to avoid a big margin between Lula and Bolsonaro.

I must not understand the logic of these Brazilian voters.  It seems weird for a voter that hates PT and does not like Bolsonaro but will vote for Bolsonaro in the second round and would park their vote with Gomes in the first round.  Such voters I would think would prefer Lula over Bolsonaro in the second round.  Parking it with Tebet would make sense.

One way or another it is clear that the Lula+Gomes vote was well overestimated in pre-election polls relative to results.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

How much should one even trust second-round polling now? 

[jaichind]

I believe the PoderData topline is 48-44 Lula and 52-48 Lula w/o undecides.

[jaichind]

Modalmais 2nd round poll.  Lula ahead 49-46

[jaichind]

Datafolha poll - Lula ahead 53/47

[jaichind]

Jesus Horatio Christ:

Jair Bolsonaro Cannibalism

Is this just because I haven't slept in like twenty four hours or is this real.

I think a Brazil judge already banned the Lula ad linking Bolsonaro to cannibalism

[jaichind]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

[jaichind]

Modalmais/Futura poll now has Lula with a tiny lead 46.9/46.5

[jaichind]

https://oantagonista.uol.com.br/brasil/instituto-verita-divulga-pesquisa-sobre-2o-turno-da-eleicao-presidencial/

The first poll I have seen that has Bolsonaro in the lead 48.7-46.4 -> 51.2-48.8

[jaichind]

Modalmais/Futura poll now has Lula with a tiny lead 46.9/46.5

The latest version of this poll has Bolsonaro  ahead 46.9/45.9

[jaichind]

The betting markets seems to have Lula's chances of winning falling to around 60%

[jaichind]

The betting markets seems to have Lula's chances of winning falling to around 60%

Betting markets now have Lula's chances of winning at 54% now

[jaichind]

Ipespe: Lula ahead 50-44 -> projects 53/47 win by Lula

[jaichind]

Polls closing is less than ten minutes away.
Anyone want to guess what kind of lead Bolsonaro might have in the early count?

My guess is that Bolsonaro underperforms.  The actions of the Bolsonaro camp last few days seem to indicate that they think they are most likely behind.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro takes the lead 52.6 to 47.4 with .3% in

[jaichind]

Are there likely to be exit polls or is it just the long count?

My understanding is that there are no exit polls

[jaichind]

Distrito Federal (51.7%-36.9% to Bolsonaro in the first round) is currently 59.9%-40.1% with 19.5% in.

I recall that during the count in the first round in DF it continued to shift away from Bolsonaro as more vote came in here.

[jaichind]

Does this sort of defeat margin mean that Bolsonaro should have enough political capital to try to run in 2026 ?