Afghan government collapse.

[jaichind]

This clearly is going to end badly for USA but I continue to back Biden on this.  This is pretty much the only issue I prefer Biden to Trump.  Trump talked a good game and at least had some talks with the Taliban but only Biden made the call to pull out and end this disaster once and for all.

[jaichind]

 I guess it is like what they say about going bankrupt: “Gradually, then suddenly.”

[jaichind]

South Vietnam really put up more of a fight.

My comparison is pro-USSR Republic of Afghanistan government.  Even after the USSR troops pulled out they continued to exist although with smaller and smaller areas of control.   The held out for 3 more years and only fell when all USSR aid disappeared as USSR itself disappeared at the end of 1991.

[jaichind]

While searching for live coverage, I came across this Afghan news stream that seems to still be operating as usual, although I obviously don't speak Pashto to know for sure. I don't know if it's based in Kabul or somewhere outside of the country, but it might be an interesting feed to check in on today to see the state of independent/private media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzm6t6mIbTM

I am curious when they will switch over to

https://youtu.be/W4jWAwUb63c?t=35

[jaichind]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

I think Biden had "urged" the Taliban to make similar promises for USA embassy but got no response.  I think the Taliban have learned a lot in their 20 years in the wilderness and most likely will let the USA citizens leave in peace and allow the USA embassy to operate if they choose to stay.

[jaichind]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

[jaichind]

Of all the Great Powers the biggest loser of his most recent development has to be India.  India has been the most hardline in having no contact with the Taliban and invested quit a lot into the now collapsing Afgan government.   Now they have to walk that back which would be quite an embarrassment or watch as their Pakistan rival with the PRC right behind them, gain much greater influence over Afghanistan which India does consider as part of its near abroad and sphere of influence.   The Indian media has been pretty compreneshive and up-to-date on coverage of events over this last month precisely because they know what is at stake.  I would be interesting to see how India actions India takes over the coming weeks to deal with this new reality.

[jaichind]

If the USA is smart they should move quickly to form a relationship with the new Taliban regime as there is no alternative to the Taliban in the medium term.   Their goal should be try to lock out as much PRC-Russia influence over the Taliban as possible.

To think that there is someone unironically advocating this from the American perspective. Such a move would establish, once and for all and in the eyes of the world, that American foreign policy is about submission to American interests, period. All of the sanctimonious propaganda about "freedom", "democracy", and "human rights" is permanently revealed to be a complete sham.

But it was a sham the whole time and were used as talking points for domestic support for necessary foreign policies to uphold USA national interests.   Anything else would be a amateurish policy for a Great Power.  I do not see why the USA should not ideally try to get Taliban regime to be a second Saudi Arabia. 

Nations should be left to decide their own political and social systems.  If they are wrong they will figure it out on their own.  Any attempt by an outside power to impose such systems will merely delegitimatize those very ideas as a foreign imposed import.

[jaichind]

I think at some point the Taliban need to find - if not allies - at least some kind of stable relationships once aid from the USA and our allies are cut off. You can't run a country into complete economic misery and maintain support among enough people.

Agreed. And that is clearly where PRC-Russia will come in and provide funding and support for the Taliban regime to stabilize things on the economic front  in return for access to mineral wealth as well as its transportation network.  The question is will the USA just sit back to allow this to take place or will it use its still considerable power to influence and economic access to the new Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

[jaichind]

By the time they figure it out, you tend to end up with a lot of dead people.

Even if there is some sort of universalist political and social system that works well for all sorts cultural, economic and historical environments which I very much dispute, there is wisdom a country learns as it evolves toward said system on its on and "discover that they were wrong."  It seems illogical to deny said country such wisdom and doing so would be the equivalent of giving second grader trying to learn the multiplication tables a calculator.

[jaichind]

President Ghani has fled. Some reports say to Tajikistan. Former President Hamid Karzai is staying on the other hand.

Makes sense for Ghani to go to Tajikistan since he is Tajik himself.  There are many reasons why the Ghani  regime collapsed.  One of them is favoritism toward Tajiks by the Ghani  regime which served to drive other ethnic groups toward the Taliban.

[jaichind]

President Ghani has fled. Some reports say to Tajikistan. Former President Hamid Karzai is staying on the other hand.

Makes sense for Ghani to go to Tajikistan since he is Tajik himself.  There are many reasons why the Ghani  regime collapsed.  One of them is favoritism toward Tajiks by the Ghani  regime which served to drive other ethnic groups toward the Taliban.

Ghani is Pashtun (from, funnily enough, the same tribe as Najibullah) and extremely unpopular with Afghan Tajiks.

Oops.  Thanks for correcting me.  I knew Ghani had problems with Tajiks relationship with other tribes so I figured he was a Tajik and not the other way around. 

[jaichind]

Its pretty funny that all the Taliban fighters seems to each have their own separate smartphones.  This is not the Taliban of mid 1990s.

[jaichind]

I assume one of the first acts of the new Taliban regime is to rename Hamid Karzai International Airport with ex-Prez Hamid Karzai being a old bitter enemy of the Taliban.

[jaichind]

I assume one of the first acts of the new Taliban regime is to rename Hamid Karzai International Airport with ex-Prez Hamid Karzai being a old bitter enemy of the Taliban.

What are we thinking, Mullah Omar International Airport?

That will be a good test of the new Taliban regime.  They claimed  that they are not out for revenge.  Calling it  Mullah Omar International Airport would be revenge.  They should just push the non-political line and call it Kabul International Airport and say something like there is no room for personality cult in land where everyone is below God and the Prophet.

[jaichind]

This was an amazing run the Taliban had in what is really a political victory.  What the Taliban seems to have done to a massive leveraged political buyout in a recursive process of bigger and bigger buyouts. What they seems to have done is to make deals with various tribal leaders for them to defect to Taliban.  Then they levered that into bigger deals with higher level government commanders by convincing them that the Taliban could win and they better be on the right side.  These defections in term really created the impression of an unstoppable Taliban which turn allowed for even bigger deals with even higher level military and political leaders (like governors and army corp commanders.)  All this then ended up with the unilateral surrender of Kabul.  This entire process did involve some fighting but they were minor compared to the scale of territories that changed hands to Taliban.   

[jaichind]

What is the plan to get Afghan refugees out of Kabul now that the Taliban has effectively taken over?

This should be paramount and Biden definitely should've planned his withdrawal better to allow for refugees to enter the United States.

I do not think there is a plan.  Taliban now control all international crossing so the only way out is by plane.  The Taliban already said that all foreigners are free to leave but made no such promises for Afgan citizens.

[jaichind]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/3479370/brit-stuck-kabul-afghanistan-holiday-worried-pals/

"IDIOT ABROAD Brit stuck in Kabul after going to Afghanistan on HOLIDAY tells worried pals ‘I’m in a bit of a pickle’"

It seems he googled “the most dangerous cities to visit” for his vacation plans.  I guess he got what he wanted.

[jaichind]

This was an amazing run the Taliban had in what is really a political victory.  What the Taliban seems to have done to a massive leveraged political buyout in a recursive process of bigger and bigger buyouts. What they seems to have done is to make deals with various tribal leaders for them to defect to Taliban.  Then they levered that into bigger deals with higher level government commanders by convincing them that the Taliban could win and they better be on the right side.  These defections in term really created the impression of an unstoppable Taliban which turn allowed for even bigger deals with even higher level military and political leaders (like governors and army corp commanders.)  All this then ended up with the unilateral surrender of Kabul.  This entire process did involve some fighting but they were minor compared to the scale of territories that changed hands to Taliban.   

This appears be an accurate reflection...

Here are a few MSM articles which explore this topic in greater detail:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/asia/afghanistan-rapid-military-collapse.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/15/afghanistan-military-collapse-taliban/

It sort of shows that just like the financial system, the political system also runs on confidence and once you take that way the system become very fragile and will collapse right away.

[jaichind]

Watching the blame game is actually pretty funny.

Biden is blaming Trump and the now defunct Afghanistan government
Trump is blaming Biden
Defunct Afghanistan Prez Ghani is blaming both Biden and Trump
Members of the defunct government are blaming Ghani
And various USA allies are blaming USA

[jaichind]

What a disaster.

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1427002551858311173

There had to have been some way to stall the Taliban’s advance long enough to get these people out, even with a fixed withdrawal date. Failure to do that has got to be one of the single biggest US strategic blunders in decades.

Looking back I think what Biden should have done is actually just carry out the May 1st deadline.  That would have in theory locked the Tailban into talks with the Ghani government for a while.  The end games would most likely been the same but those talks would have provided the time for various people that fear the Taliban to get out.  This Sept 11th deadline gave the impression that up until Sept 11th everything will be fine.

[jaichind]

All these videos on social media of Taliban soldiers in the various palaces of warlords this last week is a brilliant PR tactic.  It first crosses the psychological barrier that the Taliban are now in charge and the old ruling elite are clearly gone since they cannot even protect their own homes.  Second it shows off the extravagance and corruption  of the old ruling elite.

[jaichind]

Here is a key point that no one is making: if Biden had actually stuck to the terms of the Doha Agreement signed by the Trump admin and the Taliban, this massive humiliation for Washington would not have happened. According to the terms of the agreement, the US/NATO were supposed to be totally out of Afghanistan by May 1st of this year. But Biden wanted to stick around a little longer, probably to score some cheap domestic political points with the Neocons that backed his election campaign.

Yes, the Taliban would have still launched this year’s spring offensive that eventually took the entire country in dramatic style. But the US would have already been out if Biden had honored the agreement and left by May. The Taliban warned that there would be big consequences for this, but pretty much no one in the West took them seriously. Oops! Now we got to see Saigon 2.0, for real.

Also, one last important point to be made. This massive defeat for the Neocons has totally discredited them and their crazy ideology for all time. History did not end in the early 1990s and the US was clearly not destined to rule the entire world. The demented “Unipolar Moment” is now but a distant memory. For anyone that has been living under a Neocon rock for the last ten years: we are now living in a fully multi-polar world with multiple different power centers (most notably: the US, China, Russia and India).

I actually did make this point

Looking back I think what Biden should have done is actually just carry out the May 1st deadline.  That would have in theory locked the Tailban into talks with the Ghani government for a while.  The end games would most likely been the same but those talks would have provided the time for various people that fear the Taliban to get out.  This Sept 11th deadline gave the impression that up until Sept 11th everything will be fine.

[jaichind]

AP NewsAlert: US Official: US Military Commander Met Face-to-face With Taliban to Seek Non-interference With Kabul Airport

[jaichind]

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/us/biden-administration-freezes-usd-95-bn-of-afghan-reserves-to-block-taliban-access-to-funds20210818145550/

"Biden administration freezes USD 9.5 bn of Afghan reserves to block Taliban access to funds"

Make sense.  But one problem.  After all that aid over the years the Afghan reserves are only $9.5 billion?  Wow, the scale of corruption which I am sure includes the USA military industrial complex is greater than what I imagined.

Unless the Taliban can get a fresh source of credit they will have significant economic problems.