Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[jaichind]

If the  Catalonia regionalist parties do lose a bunch of seats then post-election I suspect they are less likely to back a PSOE government as they look to regain lost ground for the next election.

[jaichind]

PP finally overtakes PSOE in terms of seats.  Of course, the chances of a Right-wing majority are out.  I doubt the Right win bloc even makes it even to 170

[jaichind]

So that people understand the bad position in which this leaves the separatists. The Catalan "unionist" vote added together, is 60%. That's pretty terrible, all thanks to abstention. I don't see them continuing to support the Psoe with this.

That would be my sense too.  But that just means another election.

[jaichind]

Right win bloc at 168 now

[jaichind]

In what universe would Catalonian nationalists be rewarded for sabotaging a government that, by all accounts, receives broad support from Catalonians of all backgrounds, as evidenced by the massive surge in the support of PSOE and Sumar in rural Catalonia? What is the chain of events where this would work out for them?

Because if it gets into the minds of Catalonian regionalist voters that a vote for Catalonian regionalist is really a vote for PSOE then such voters might just as well just vote PSOE.

[jaichind]

The right-wing bloc is at 169 now.  PP vote share is about to overtake PSOE very soon

[jaichind]

I do not see why anyone would want to be PM under these circumstances. 

[jaichind]

Sanchez has just arrived tat the PSOE headquarters in Madrid.  Supporters broke into a chant of “presidente, presidente, presidente.”

[jaichind]

In a cruel irony it seems the future of Spanish politics might come down to Puigdemont

[jaichind]

Looks like PP has won a majority in the Senate.

[jaichind]

It seems Sanchez's gamble paid off.  He replicated what Schröder pull off in 2005.

[jaichind]

I take back what I said, it seems like Rufian is calling for Sanchez and Diaz to just throw money at Catalonia in order to get his votes.

Doing that with PP getting more seats and vote share is bad optics which just means PSOE will get creamed in the next election.

[jaichind]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

[jaichind]

It seems like everyone is celebrating.

Except Vox.

Which why everyone is celebrating.

But the swing against SUMAR relative to the parties that make up SUMAR relative to the 2019 Nov results are greater than the swing against VOX relative to the same election.

There are very few vote transfers between blocs, so it's more useful to establish comparisons within them

SUMAR lost about 3% with regards UP and MP in Nov 2019, while the PSOE gained 3.7%

Right.  And VOX lost around 2.7% relative to Nov 2019 so the biggest loser in this election would be SUMAR and not VOX, at least in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

But I thought the Lower House can overturn Senate veto only with a absolute majority in the Lower House which would be tricky for any PSOE government even if it somehow got Junts to abstain.

[jaichind]

I wonder if the Catalonia regionist vote will turn out at a larger rate next election which means unless one of the two blocs has a breakout result there might be more deadlock.

[jaichind]

Right now we have a perfect gridlock. The hypothetical investiture blocs would be.

Sánchez 171 (PSOE 121,  Sumar 31, ERC 7, Bildu 6,  PNV 5, BNG 1)
Feijóo 171 (PP 137, Vox 33, UPN 1)
None 8 (Junts 7, CC 1)

On paper ERC is willing to support the investiture of Sánchez, but this is conditioned by the vote of the party membership. Additionally ERC is proposing Junts a joint negotiation with the PSOE

CC won't support any candidate, for the Canarian regionalists equally reject Vox and Sumar

I thought PP gained a seat from PSOE in Madrid?  So would it not be PP 138 PSOE 120 ?

[jaichind]

I thought PP gained a seat from PSOE in Madrid?  So would it not be PP 138 PSOE 120 ?

If I'm not wrong, results on election night were; PP 136, PSOE 122

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones/generales/

Ah.  Got it .. thanks for this.