Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Looks like there will be an election for 福岡(Fukuoka) governor 4/11.  The pro-LDP incumbent which was re-elected in 2019 stepped down very recently due to health reasons.  This unexpected election is provoking conflict between different LDP factions (mostly between 麻生(Aso) faction and non-Aso factions) in the prefecture and it seems we are headed toward an election where there will likely be 2 or more pro-LDP candidates.  The good news for the LDP is that the opposition lack a face to take on the LDP so the election will be mostly a between different pro-LDP rivals.

[jaichind]

Latest polling averages has Suga Cabinet approval stopping its fall and rebounding a bit


Approval of dealing with COVID-19 also rising from very low levels


LDP support (Green) also rebounding a bit


CDP support(light blue) also rising while JRP support (light green) falling.  It seems LDP rebound is clawing back support it lost to JRP last couple of months

[jaichind]

4/25 there will be a by-election for 長野(Nagano) Upper House seat.  The incumbent 羽田 雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) who was elected in 2019 in the DPP ticket but had joined CDP as part of CDP-DPP merger passed away due to COVID-19.  羽田 雄一郎(Hata Yūichirō) was the son of former JRP (pro-Ozawa LDP splinter Japan Renewal Party) PM 羽田 孜(Hata Tsutomu).

It seems CDP will nominate 羽田次郎(Hat Jirō), younger brother of the incumbent.  It seems that the politics of dynasty is alive and well in the opposition camp as the LDP camp.  Most likely 羽田次郎(Hat Jirō) will win over the LDP candidate due to sympathy factor and the power of the Hata family in 長野(Nagano).

[jaichind]

社会調査研究 (Social Research Center) poll in several Northeastern prefectures on party support

福島(Fukushima)

LDP    32
KP       4
JRP      3
DPP     1
CDP   18
RS       1
SDP     1
JCP      8


宮城(Miyagi)

LDP    32
KP       6
JRP      3
DPP     1
CDP   16
RS       1
SDP     1
JCP      6


岩手(Iwate)

LDP    31
KP       3
JRP      2
PNHK   1
DPP     1
CDP   14
RS       1
SDP     3
JCP      6

If true then other than 岩手(Iwate) these numbers are problematic for LDP especially  福島(Fukushima) where HP was strong in 2017 and it seems in 2019 part of the 2017 HP vote shifted to LDP.  This poll seems to show that the 2017 HP vote is swinging away from LDP again.

[jaichind]

Suga cabinet approval curve continues to get better and he will most likely above water soon


LDP support (Green) going up but so is CDP support(Blue)

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) poll on PR vote.  47% would consider voting for LDP on PR.  18% would consider voting for JRP, 16% would consider voting for CDP, 12% would consider voting for KP, 6% would consider voting for JCP, and 6% would consider voting for DPP

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election a week from now.  In theory this is a 3 way race between pro-Center Left candidate, pro-LDP candidate and JCP.   It seems the pro-Center Left candidate has the edge and should win over the pro-LDP candidate which is rare in an open seat.

There are 5 minor party candidates with 4 of them being fairly colorful candidates in the mix.

2 of these minor party candidates actually proclaimed their love for a women and proposed to them on their official election statement on NHK.

First we have 河合悠祐(Kawai Yusuke) who decided to give his statement dress as a clown and promised that if elected he will turn 千葉(Chiba) in Disneyland
 



Then we have 加藤健一郎(Kato Kenichiro) who ran warning Japan about getting involved in a future USA-PRC conflict and promised to be the Biden of 千葉(Chiba).  He also proclaimed his love for current Tokyo governor Koike and proposed to her in his official campaign statement




A third candidate 平塚正幸(Hiratsuka Masayuki) is mostly running on a COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theory claiming that all vaccines are poisonous.




A forth candidate 後藤輝樹(Goto Teruki) also proclaimed his love to and proposed to an actress in his official campaign statement.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaori) came out with his current projection of election if held right now

         District   PR      Total
LDP    188       68      256
KP         6       22        28
JRP        9       17        26
DPP       6         2          8
CDP     72       52      124
RS         0        1          1
SDP       0        0          0
JCP       1       14        15
Ind       7                     7 (I suspect 3 pro-LDP, 2 pro-DPP, 2 pro-CDP)

KP down to 6 district seats is a shock.  This project has JRP surging in the PR vote while RS surge of 2019 dissipating while SDP completely washed out.  JCP also falls in support which benefits CDP.

LDP + KP + JRP is just around 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election voting done.  Center-Left candidate called as the winner by NHK as polls closed so it was not even close.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election exit polls show a missive landslide for the Center-Left candidate at over 70% of the vote and the pro-LDP candidate at below 20%.  Turnout was very low so it seems pro-LDP vote did not bother coming out in what many saw as an foregone conclusion.

The various controversial minor party candidates got almost nothing between them despite high level of media coverage.

[jaichind]

For the LDP to be beaten in an open seat for a governor election by such a margin is very unusual.

[jaichind]

Exit polls for 千葉市(Chiba City) also shows a defeat of the LDP candidate by the Center-Left candidate by a wide margin even though JCP is in the mix to split the anti-LDP vote.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (21% in)

Center-Left     61.8%
LDP                28.3%
JCP                  7.8%
PNHK               0.5%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.4%
Independent     0.4% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.3% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.3% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (49% in)

Center-Left     63.6%
LDP                25.2%
JCP                  7.6%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.7% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.5% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.4% (proposed to actress on live TV)

Since the prelim count only report result if a candidate is above a certain vote threshold in a district the later the early count tends to underestimate minor party candidates.  So now the minor candidate vote count has risen from earlier in the count.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (62% in)

Center-Left     65.2%
LDP                24.2%
JCP                  7.5%
Independent     0.9%
PNHK               0.8%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.7% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.5% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.4% (proposed to actress on live TV)

Outstanding vote heavy lean 千葉市(Chiba City) where the Center-Left candidate was mayor.  When that comes in the Center-Left candidate will most likely be above 70% matching exit polls.  What a blowout.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election exit polls

Electorate party support

LDP         42
KP            3
JRP           2
DPP          1
CDP        12
SDP          1
JCP           4

KP should be at least 13 it not 15.  Most of them are hiding out as LDP voters. 

Center-Left candidate who was 千葉市(Chiba City) mayor and have cross-partisan appeal won 60% of the LDP vote.

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (87% in)

Center-Left     69.0%
LDP                20.8%
JCP                  6.2%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.7% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.5% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count (94% in)

Center-Left     69.9%
LDP                19.9%
JCP                  6.3%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               0.9%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.7% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.6% (proposed to actress on live TV)

[jaichind]

千葉(Chiba) governor election count done (turnout 39%)

Center-Left     70.5%
LDP                19.2%
JCP                  6.1%
Independent     1.0%
PNHK               1.0%  (COVID-19 denialist, COVID-19 vaccine conspiracist)
Independent     0.8% (promises to be Chiba's Biden and proposed to Tokyo governor Koike on live TV)
Independent     0.8% (promises to to make all of Chiba into Disneyland)
Independent     0.6% (proposed to actress on live TV)

So the "4 clowns" of the 千葉(Chiba) governor election together got around 3.2% of the total vote.

In  千葉市(Chiba City) mayor where it is an open seat as the current mayor ran for governor it is

Center-Left      59.7%
LDP                 27.6%
JCP                 12.6%

The coattails of the current  千葉市(Chiba City) mayor and now governor are quite impressive.

[jaichind]

Party alignment by age

LDP (dark purple) is strongest with the 80+ group
CDP (dark blue) is strongest with the 70s group
JCP (light blue) is strongest with the 70s and 80+ group
KP (light purple) is strongest with 80+ group
JRP (yellow) is strongest with the 30s group
RS (light green) is strongest with the 20s group

youth which usually votes LDP (voting wise the most anti-LDP group is 60s) is fairly non-aligned

[jaichind]

ex-LDP MP and old crony of Abe 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) from 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district admitted to vote buying in court.  He did reject conspiracy charges that he conspired with his wife, former Upper House MP for 広島(Hiroshima) (who has already been convicted for vote buying).

[jaichind]

I've been to Chiba Prefecture and it's not what I'd call natural turf for the post-2012 remnants of the Japanese left. I get that Kumagai was an extremely strong candidate and forged a lot of political alliances, though; did he have an especially good COVID record as Mayor of Chiba City or something?

熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to) as mayor of  千葉市(Chiba City) had a lot of cross partisan appeal. He was especially skilled in making deals with KP and the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction of LDP.   In the governor race the KP did not endorse the the LDP candidate which is de facto endorsement of  熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to).  Also a 千葉(Chiba) LDP Upper House MP from the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction also endorsed 熊谷俊人(Kumagaya Tosh**to).  Since prefecture governor races are in theory non-partisan the LDP Upper House MP was able to get away with this without party discipline.

Of course the scale of the defeat is a complete failure of the 千葉(Chiba) LDP and post election there is a great sense of fear and unease in the LDP in 千葉(Chiba) about what awaits them in the general election later this year.

[jaichind]

More governor election news.

The news governor race will be April 4th for 秋田(Akita).  This is a must win for Suga since he is himself from 秋田(Akita).  The pro-LDP incumbent if facing off against pro-Center-Left former MP and JCP candidate.  The non-JCP opposition candidate 村岡敏英 (Muraoka Toshihide) has a LDP background and is the son of a local LDP MP.  When he was not nominated by the LDP for his father's seat he bolt from the LDP, joined the extreme Right nationalist SPJ which in turn merged into JRP.   He was elected on a best loser PR slate in 2012 and 2014.  After JRP split up he went to the short lived rightist JRP splinter VOR before joining HP and losing in 2017 on the HP ticket.   He is now a pro-DPP independent.  The pro-LDP incumbent will most likely win but it would be interesting to see what vot share 村岡敏英 (Muraoka Toshihide) can win.

The April 11th 福岡(Fukuoka) governor race for an open seat will turn out to be boring as the LDP got its act together and consolidated around one pro-LDP candidate and will face off against a pro-JCP candidate.  There was a risk of several LDP rebels jumping in but the 福岡(Fukuoka) LDP managed to talk them out of it.

In July there will be a governor race in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  It is not clear if the pro-LDP incumbent will run for re-election but there is already a splint in the LDP.  The pro-LDP lieutenant governor has resigned and announce that he will run no matter what which pretty much says there will be a split in the LDP.  11 members of the prefecture LDP caucus resigned from LDP to form their separate bloc to support the lieutenant governor



The good news for the LDP is that  兵庫(Hyōgo) is one of its safest prefecture.  Its proximity to Osaka means JRP is strong here.  This means the non-LDPKP non-JCP  space is evenly split between JPR and the Center-Left opposition leaving LDP to sweep all races.  Before the rise of JRP  兵庫(Hyōgo) was one of the weaker LDP prefectures but now it is one of the strongest due to the split opposition.

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) is due to have an Upper House by-election April 25th due to death of CDP incumbent due to COVID-19 back in Dec 2020.  

A PR poll by a local media house for 長野(Nagano) is not good for LDP

LDP    29%
KP       5%
JRP      4%
DPP     2%
CDP   34%
RS       1%
SDP     2%
JCP    10%

The 2019 Upper House PR vote was

LDP               31.95%   
KP                 10.51%   
JRP                 5.27%
Center-Left    37.96%   
JCP               11.09%

The Center-Left (mainly CDP) are clearly outperforming their 2019 numbers where LDP-KP seems to have fallen a bunch since 2019.  JCP also seems to be outperforming as well.

[jaichind]

Map of opposition candidates under the tactical CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP alliance

Background colors = represents the de facto joint opposition candidate  
Blue - CDP
Orange - DPP
Purple - SDP
Red - JCP (almost all unwinnable seats)
Grey - pro-Opposition independent
White - no joint opposition candidate yet (usually because LDP is so strong even JCP does not seem to want to bother coming up with a candidate)

In reality the alliance does not hold in many non-marginal seats where the LDP is going to win anyway.  The color of the district name shows places where an alliance partner is in the fray against the "official" joint opposition candidate.

So a square where it is Blue have have red colored name of the district means CDP is the "official" joint opposition candidate but JCP will also run.