Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

　　　　　　2021　　 2017　　 Diff
 9AM     　  1.19％    2.79％    -1.60%
10AM    　  2.92％    5.68％    -2.76%
11AM        5.82％   10.17％    -4.35%
Noon         9.54％   14.66％    -5.12%　
 2PM     　15.59％   20.88％    -5.29%
 3PM     　18.12％   23.81％    -5.69%　
 4PM        21.23％   26.10％    -4.87%
 5PM        23.68％   28.86％    -5.18%
 6PM        25.35％   32.36％    -7.01%
 730PM    28.41%   35.88%    -7.47%                 

Early    　12.38％   12.23％   ＋0.15%

Final　　　　　　　  51.28％

I was wrong about 2017. Polls closed at 8PM back then as well.  Looks like we are headed toward 44% turnout.  Should be excellent news for KP.

[jaichind]

NHK stream live

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls.  TPFA outperformed.  LDP-KP majority in danger

LDP       25-43
TPFA     20-35
KP        16-23
JCP       14-22
CDP       11-22
JRP        0-2
TSN       1-3

Wow.  Exactly opposite of what I thought.  TPFA ate into LDP KP JCP CDP across the board.

If TPFA outperformed then I agreed KP could lose a couple of seats.

[jaichind]

Asahi already called Ome (青梅市) for TPFA.  This was expect to be LDP with TPFA with an outside chance.  To be called right away means long night for LDP.  It seems there were some opposition tactical voting for TPFA which will have serious implications elsewhere.

[jaichind]

Asahi also called Chiyoda City (千代田区) for TPFA.  Again. Disaster for LDP.  LDP was viewed as having an edge here but to be called for TPFA right away is a disaster and shows that the CDP vote swung behind TPFA where necessary to defeat LDP.

[jaichind]

So far Asahi has

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

25 out of 127 called

LDP                2
KP                  5
TPFA               7
pro-TPFA Ind   1
CDP                5
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                3

[jaichind]

The NHK exit poll vote shares for various districts are a disaster of KP.  It seems KP vote collapsed across the board.  LDP also doing badly in some districts.  There are clear signs that TPFA CDP and JCP are tactically voting for each other.

It seems KP as the boy that cried wolf is finally eaten by the wolf if this holds as nobody believed them when they said they are in trouble.

[jaichind]

LDP has underperformed nearly every election since Suga became leader.

Yeah. This clearly not just some fluke. This is a clear trend.  If the results are like the exit polls there are going to be greater noises in LDP for Suga to go.  It seems the puppet master does not a good job when he has to be the front office person.

[jaichind]

NHK detailed exit poll



LDP       25-43
TPFA     20-35
KP        16-23
JCP       14-22
CDP       11-22
JRP        0-2
TSN       1-3
RS         0-1
Ind        2-6 !!!

[jaichind]

Fun battlegrounds this time around

Meguro City (目黒区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  LDP is hampered by another weaker LDP candidate and JCP is hammered by CDP being in the race.  CW seems to be that JCP is the most likely to get one of the 3 seats on CDP tactical voting with LDP KP TPFA neck-to-neck for the last two although it is totally possible JCP ends up being the odd man out.

Nakano City (中野区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA CDP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  JCP is not in the race and will implicitly back CDP ergo CW seems to be that CDP is the most likely to win a seat.   LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats even though CDP could end up losing.

Toshima City (豊島区) (3- member district):
4 way battle for 3 seats.  LDP KP TPFA JCP are in a 4 way tie for 3 seats.  CDP is not in the race and will implicitly back JCP ergo CW seems to be t hat JCP will most likely win a seat.  LDP KP TPFA are in a tight race for the last two seats.

These 3 seats but especially Nakano City (中野区) and Toshima City (豊島区) are viewed by KP as extreme danger  of losing.  The KP has to face the pressure of a resurgent LDP, TPFA incumbent advantage, and CDP-JCP alliance.  In the end KP will squeeze through at the expense of TPFA in my view.

Another fun one is

Ota City (大田区) (7- member district):
LDP and JCP are expect to get a seats.  LDP TPFA JRP CDP and 2 KP candidates are battling for the remaining 5 and it seems to be a 5 way tie.  KP vote share will be nearly identical (KP base will be told which of the two to vote for to get equal vote shares) so most likely both KP candidates makes it through.  The remaining LDP TPFA JRP and CDP are unclear which 3 will make it.  CW says CDP is the most likely to miss out by a small margin but I think it will be TPFA.

Meguro City (目黒区) (3- member district) exit poll.  TPFA JCP LDP.  KP collapsed


Nakano City (中野区) (3- member district) exit poll. CDP TPFA LDP.  KP also underperformed


Toshima City (豊島区) (3- member district) exit poll.  TPFA JCP LDP.  KP also underperformed


For all 3 KP now has to hope for a LDP collapse for them to get through.


Ota City (大田区) (7- member district) exit poll: JCP JRP CDP TPFA LDP KP LDP (KP 8th, TPFA 9th, LDP 10th)



Total diester for LDP and KP.  For KP to keep their two seats then again have to hope for LDP underperformance

[jaichind]

Shinjuku City (新宿区) (4 member district ) exit polls are another disaster for KP

JCP TPFA CDP LDP (LDP 5th KP 6th)




TPFA was expected to finish 5th behind LDP KP CDP JCP but a TPFA surge drove KP to 6th place.  It seems unlikely KP will keep their seat unless, again, like the others, LDP totally underperforms exit polls.

[jaichind]

Shinagawa City (品川区) (4- member district) exit polls

Looks like a train wreck for LDP-KP

It seems to be CDP  pro-TPFA ind (really TPFA rebel) TPFA JCP with LDP 5th KP 6th and LDP 7th.  By nominating 3 candidate between LDP-KP they might end up with zero.

[jaichind]

For 8 member Setagaya City (世田谷区) exit polls has a TPFA surge and LDP-KP dip but mostly along expected lines

TPFA JCP LDP CDP CDP TSN KP LDP.  With JRP RS and LDP in 9th 10th and 11th trying to get into the top 8. 

[jaichind]

Shibuya City (渋谷区) (2- member) was expect to be LDP CDP but a TPFA surge make it TPFA CDP according to exit polls where LDP was pushed to 4th place.  TPFA nominating 2 candidates did not work but did to seem to hurt them.  Amazing.

[jaichind]

Have you got a working live stream link? the one on the NHK site is still saying that it'll be live once the program starts

Nope, ended for me as well.  They are just going over exit poll by district is what I am guessing.  But I have access to them anyway

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/togisen/2021/exitpoll/?utm_int=detail_contents_news-link_001

[jaichind]

Unless there was a massive exit poll miss I think KP could lose up to 6-7 seats.  This is a historic disaster for KP.  Remember that  Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections are the MOST important election for KP.  Heads are going to roll in KP high command if these are the result. 

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll has

LDP     30-40
KP       17-23
TPFA    25-34
JCP      16-23
CDP     11-19
TSN       0-2
JRP        0-2
Ind        3-5   (most likely 1-2 for Minor Left and 2-3 for pro-TPFA ind)



What is worse for LDP-KP is that there are a lot of LDP-KP marginal seats so LDP-KP will end up with a seat count of the 50s, well below majority. 

[jaichind]

If you just take the NHK exit polls by district and take who is ahead in them you get

LDP               39
LDP rebel        1
KP                10 !!!!
JRP                 2
TPFA             32
Pro-TPFA Ind   3  (or TPFA rebel)
CDP              16
TSN                2
Minor Left       1
JCP              21

So even NHK does not believe their own district results which has KP at 10 seat.  They seems to also factor in a shy KP vote effect. The main problem is if KP is to get more seats it is mostly at the expense of LDP so LDP seat count could be lower than 39.

[jaichind]

Wtf is happening, this is nothing like what I was expecting to see coming into tonight?

I think Koike being "ill" and going into the hospital had the opposite effect than I expected.  I thought it would be seen a a cynical ploy to avoid offending LDP-KP which means the the anti-Olympics vote will go to CDP-JCP while LDP voters would see this as an abandonment of TPFA and vote LDP.  Instead it created a sympathy factor for Koike which got reflected onto TPFA.  Also the anti-Olympics crowd did end up seeing TPFA as a viable anti-LDP alternative and the CDP base did partly vote for TPFA.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  28 out of 127 called


LDP-KP          9
LDP                 4
KP                   5

TPFA+            9
TPFA                8
pro-TPFA Ind    1

Opposition    10
CDP                5
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                3


3 main blocs around the same.  In the end LDP-KP will be bigger than Opposition alliance which will be bigger than TPFA bloc but the gap will not be that large between the three of them if exit polls are believed.

[jaichind]

One deviation from NHK exit poll already

Chiyoda City (千代田区) - this is where the Imperial Palace is located and the most prestigious district. LDP should have the edge here but it is said that not all LDP factions are behind the LDP candidate and some might defect to TPFA.

NHK exit poll has LDP ahead of TPFA by a small but significant margin
 

But Asahi already called it for TPFA as polls closed. So the two exit polls clearly have different views on this.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll on party support 2017 vs 2021



LDP went from 32 to 31 while CDP went from 8 (DP in 2017) to 11. TPFA went from 14 to 8 while KP went from 6 to 7 and JCP stayed at 8.  If anything with LDP-KP alliance this should mean LDP-KP solid victory.  It seems a lot of the LDP vote went over to TPFA.

[jaichind]

In 7- member Nerima City (練馬区) the NHK projection seems to be even worse that exit polls

Exit poll had CDP TPFA JCP LDP KP TPFA LDP with minor Left and LDP in 8th and 9th place



But so far NHK has called CDP TPFA PTFA KP JCP as winners and the LDP candidates are not called.  LDP nominated 3 candidates and if the minor Left surges ahead might end up with 1 seat.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/togisen/

Asahi now has it at  36 out of 127 called


LDP-KP           14
LDP                   9
KP                    5

TPFA+            10
TPFA                 9
pro-TPFA Ind     1

Opposition     12
CDP                6
TSN                1
Minor Left       1
JCP                4

[jaichind]

From the NHK exit poll

Koike Approval
64% Approve
36% Disapprove

Olympics
38% No spectators
26% Cancelled
21% Agree with current policy
10% Postponed again
5% No restriction on audiences

Cabinet approval
39% Approve
61% Disapprove

Looks like the fundamentals win out in the end.

No spectator position which is TPFA position is larger than expected which partly explains TPFA overperformance.