Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.

Some of the 広島(Hiroshima) count include estimates from urban areas so I expect the gap to grow from here.  Still nothing from 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district
 
北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.   
JRP                 
Pro LDP Ind.     


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (81% if the vote counted)
CDP                 52.8% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 44.8% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (56% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     49.0% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 46.0% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (83% of the votes counted)
TCJ                  51.1%
Grand Alliance  46.7% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

[jaichind]

名古屋市 (Nagoya City) TCJ incumbent mayor 河村 たかし( Kawamura Takashi) celebrating re-election

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.
 
北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (51% of the voted counted)
CDP                 44.2% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     20.1%
JRP                  16.9%
Pro LDP Ind.     11.0%


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (97% if the vote counted)
CDP                 54.1% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 43.7% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (95% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     48.6% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.4% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (completely counted)
TCJ                  51.7%
Grand Alliance  45.5% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

[jaichind]

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election

United opposition(red) very strong with 広島市(Hiroshima City) suburbs while LDP (blue) very strong with inland rural areas.  United opposition stronger in 広島市(Hiroshima City) but the lead is not decisive leading to united opposition candidate falling short of 50% of the vote.



This mostly matches pre-election polls

[jaichind]

Vote count all done
 
北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election  
CDP                 43.7% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     20.1%
JRP                  16.5%  (has NPD background)
Pro LDP Ind.     11.5%


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election  
CDP                 54.8% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 42.9% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election
United Oppn     48.4% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 43.9% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election 
TCJ                  51.7%
Grand Alliance  45.5% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)


My prediction for 長野(Nagano), 広島(Hiroshima), and 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) were all within 1% of the result.  I was off for 北海道(Hokkaido) where I underestimated JRP as well as other minor candidates and overestimated CDP.  It seems the NPD vote came out in force to vote for the JRP candidate.

My prediction for the 4 races on Sunday

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election
CDP                  52.8% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.      19.7%
JRP                   13.4%
Pro LDP Ind.       9.6%

長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election
CDP                 55.2% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 41.8% (backed by KP)

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election
United Oppn     47.4% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.9% (backed by KP)

名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election
TCJ                  51.6%
Grand Alliance  45.0% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

0-4 for LDP.

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district by-election exit polls



Party support is

LDP    26
KP       4
JRP      5
CDP   25
JCP      8

LDP support was split between the 2 pro-LDP independents as well as the JRP candidate.

A look at the history of exit poll for 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district for lower house elections in history has LDP-KP support to be

2003    43
2005    40
2009    29
2012    32
2014    38
2017    39
2021    30 (by-election)

Some of the 2017 LDP-KP support, it seems, has gone to JRP whose support have jumped from 2 in 2017 to 5 in this by-election but LDP-KP clearly have bleed support here relative to 2017.  While DP-CDP-HP support in 2017 was 23 but now have jumped to 25 for CDP.

[jaichind]

It seems LDP MP 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) put out a tweet election day in support of the LDP candidate in 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election.  In theory this is in violation of Japanese election law.   野田聖子(Noda Seiko) was going to challenge Abe in the 2015 LDP Prez election but failed to get 20 LDP MPs to back her to force an election.

[jaichind]

All national newspapers have headline of LDP going 0-3 out of the 3 by-elections and that it was a huge blow for Suga.

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election  results map (red = CDP, blue = LDP)

The LDP candidate used to be the MP of the 1st district (on the best loser PR slate) so he did better in the 1st district.  The CDP candidate family fiefdom used to be the 3rd district so CDP overperformed in the 3rd district.  Due to family connections in the prefecture the CDP candidate if anything did better in rural areas vs urban areas due to the favorite son effect.

[jaichind]

Suga was not the only loser of these by-elections.  The result in 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election was also a big blow 岸田(Kishida) faction leader 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio).  岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) is from  広島(Hiroshima) and the LDP candidate in the by-election was from his faction.

As I mentioned before the entire by-election was due to a battle between the anti-Abe 岸田(Kishida) faction and the pro-Abe 二階(Nikai) faction led by LDP general secretary 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) where the 二階(Nikai) faction insisted on running a second candidate in the 2019 Upper House elections for the 2-member  広島(Hiroshima) seat which squeezed out the 岸田(Kishida) faction incumbent.  The 二階(Nikai) faction winner was then found to be guilty of vote buying and removed from her seat leading to this by-election.  Suga and 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) reluctantly  agreed that the 岸田(Kishida) faction should have a shot running its candidate in this by-election since this is, after all,  岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)'s home prefecture.  The LDP defeat here is a huge blow to  岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)'s credibility in the LDP as a rival to Suga.

With Suga clearly in trouble, 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) also in trouble due for a member of his faction being found guilty of vote buying, the main anti-Suga factions now also stands discredited.  The 石破 (Ishiba) faction led by 石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru) which was the main rival to Abe during the 2012-2020 period has been discredited by his poor performance in the 2020 LDP Prez race.  Now  岸田(Kishida) faction led by 岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)  has been discredited due to the defeat in this by-election.

The main alternative to Suga now is most likely dark horse 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is the son of a former LDP Prez in the 1993-1995 period who also ran unsuccessfully in the 2009 LDP Prez race.  This is not liked by Suga-Abe bloc but if Suga continues to slide downward there might be no alternative to 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) taking over LDP later this year either in the 2021 LDP Prez race in Sept or after a LDP setback in a possible general election held before Sept 2021. 

If it is see that 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) cannot be stopped I suspect Suga-Abe bloc might play their final card:

Swap out Suga for Abe in a second Abe comeback. 

I can see how this could actually play out if things get desperate enough for Suga.

[jaichind]

読売(Yomiuri) poll Tokyo Olympics

16% to hold with a limited number of spectators
23 %Held without spectators
59% to cancel

[jaichind]

Polling average for Tokyo Olympics

Going ahead (red) collapsed end of 2020 with the second COVID-19 wave in Japan but then recovered.  Now it is dropping again with the 3rd COVID-10 wave.

Cancel (dark blue) also peaked in late 202 and then fell only to rise. Same with Delay(light blue)

[jaichind]

Approval for government actions on COVID-19 falling again as the 3rd COVID-19 wave plays out.  It is now back down to where it was in late 2020 at the peak of the 2nd COVID-19 wave.

[jaichind]

Suga approval curve heading down again


LDP (green) support falling a bit


CDP (blue) support moving upward

[jaichind]

Latest PR voting intentions has LDP (Dark Green) falling while CDP (Light Blue) and JRP (Light Green) rising.

LDP+KP seems to be around 40 which would imply something like 44%-46% on the PR slate if an election was held today.  This type of support would for sure mean a loss of seats for LDP overall.

[jaichind]

very interesting PR poll just dropped

https://twitter.com/miraisyakai/status/1394628890795020288?s=20

JX polls always had an anti-LDP and pro-CDP lean in its PR survey.  The complete poll with change from April shows an erosion of LDP support but not a collapse.  

LDP    29.9 (-2.2)
KP       5.1 (-1.6)
PNHK   0.6 (--)
JRP      8.1 (-0.5)
DPP     2.0 (+0.2)
CDP   20.1 (+1.2)
RS      2.2 (+1.0)
SDP    1.7 (+0.7)
JCP     9.1 (+1.0)

The decline of the Right parties and rise of Left parties relative to April is clear.

Usually LDP polls in the mid 30s to low 40s on PR since many KP PR voters "hide out" as LDP PR voters while KP polls around 5% which is impossible (KP will get 12%-14% no matter what) which means the real LDP PR levels of support are usually in the low to mid 30s.  For JX polls it seems these hidden KP voters are hiding out in undecided.  Still for LDP to poll below 30% is a real problem for the LDP, even for JX PR polls.

[jaichind]

https://toysmatrix.com/japan-ruling-party-sets-up-chip-task-force-with-abe-in-senior-role/

Japan ruling party sets up chip task force with Abe in senior role

Another step toward Abe's return?

[jaichind]

毎日(Mainichi) poll on Olympics.  % of population for canceling rises from 29% to 40% while those for delay rises from 19% to 23%.  Those that are for going ahead falls from 34% to 20%.  Those that are for going ahead but with no specters which means no foreign tourists holds stead from 14% to 13%.

Suga will have to soon to decide if he is going to gamble with going ahead with Olympics.  I think it is a gamble that is worth it.  If he pulls it off without another COVID-19 surge then he will completely turn around his pollical fortunes.   If he delays it than on the short run that is what the population would want but he will be seen as weak and indecisive and will hurt his brand.

[jaichind]

宝塚市(Takarazuka City) mayor election count done.  United opposition candidate edges out JRP to win.

United Opposition (CDP-JCP)   35.81%  (elected)
JRP                                       33.78%
LDP                                       20.93%
Center-left Ind.                        9.48%



It seems that the LDP-KP base sensed the LDP candidate was behind and tactically voted for the JRP candidate to stop the united opposition candidate.  It almost worked but was not enough to stop the shock victory of the united opposition candidate.

United opposition candidate victory speech.  Also gives you a glimpse of what an election campaign headquarters looks like.  All the signs are all letters of support prayer paper from different supporters praying for victory. Pretty standard in all election campaign offices.

There was an by-election in 宝塚市(Takarazuka City) prefecture assembly district today to fill the two seats that were opened up for the LDP and JRP incumbents that resigned to run, unsuccessfully, for the mayor election.  This time around JCP ran its own candidate and the result was the LDP and JRP candidates won over CDP in a race for the top two spots

JRP    29.41% (elected)
LDP   24.86% (elected)
CDP   24.48%
JCP    12.17%
Ind.   10.08% (seems to lean left)


The vote share seems very similar to the mayor election but failure for CDP-JCP to form an alliance led the CDP candidate to come in third versus first in the mayor election.  Once again JRP ran ahead of LDP in a warning sign for LDP.  兵庫(Hyōgo) is very strong for LDP since JRP and the Center-Left-JCP evenly split the anti-LDP vote leading to LDP wins across the board in any FPTP type race.   These results show LDP might be able to count on that anymore.

[jaichind]

Tokyo News poll on Tokyo Prefecture elections

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/106318/2?s=09

LDP            19.3%
KP                3.4%
JRP               3.4%
TPFA             9.6%
DPP              0.5%
CDP            14.0%
TSN              1.6%
RS                2.0%
JCP             12.9%

If true then we are looking at a quite a overperformance for CDP and JCP.  Even TPFA vote seems to be holding up well under the circumstances.  LDP not doing we well as expected.  If this is representative at all of the results then LDP-KP will for sure not gain a majority.
 

[jaichind]

JCP at 13% sounds like an impressive result for them.

What this poll shows seems to be

a) JCP retaining most of its 2017 vote share surge
b) TPFA gained from both DP and LDP in 2017 for its 2017 surge.  This time around most of the DP vote that went to TPFA in 2017 have gone back to CDP but most of the LDP vote that went to TPFA in 2017 have stayed with TPFA.

If so this could be a very disappointing election night for LDP.  Assuming CDP and JCP are able to transfer their vote to each other in the 1- and 2- member districts, LDP will still become the largest party due to KP support but the LDP-CDP seat gap will not be that wide and the prefecture assembly will be hopelessly splintered between LDP CDP JCP and TPFA.

[jaichind]

Tokyo News poll on Tokyo Prefecture elections

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/106318/2?s=09

LDP            19.3%
KP                3.4%
JRP               3.4%
TPFA             9.6%
DPP              0.5%
CDP            14.0%
TSN              1.6%
RS                2.0%
JCP             12.9%

If true then we are looking at a quite a overperformance for CDP and JCP.  Even TPFA vote seems to be holding up well under the circumstances.  LDP not doing we well as expected.  If this is representative at all of the results then LDP-KP will for sure not gain a majority.
 

The same poll in May 2017 has (and what this poll has now)

TPFA       32.5%  ->   9.6%
LDP        18.1%  ->  19.6%
JCP           8.3%  -> 12.9%
DP           5.0%  ->  14.0%  (2021 it is CDP)
KP           4.3%  ->    3.4%

[jaichind]

Morning Consulting says that Suga has the lowest rating of all the world leaders it is polling.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/news/202105310001153.html

Another blow to Suga regime.  ex-minister and LDP Tokyo 9th district MP 菅原 一秀(Sugawara Isshū) quits LDP as the investigation of him taking money from egg producer scandal continues to close in.  菅原 一秀(Sugawara Isshū) is close to Suga and he resigned from LDP to prevent from his case influencing the Tokyo prefecture elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASP5K633LP5KUTFK01J.html

PNHK changes its name from "NHKから自国民を守る党" or Party that Protects People from the NHK to "古い政党から国民を守る党" or "The Party that Protects the People from Old Political Parties." Most media outlets labels them as  "古" or Old just like 自由民主党(LDP) is called "自" or Freedom.  I guess PNHK (which I assume now has to be called POPP) wants to expand its appeal to not just anti-NHK put as a full blown anti-establishment party.