Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

My prediction for the 4 races on Sunday

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election
CDP                  52.8% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.      19.7%
JRP                   13.4%
Pro LDP Ind.       9.6%

長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election
CDP                 55.2% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 41.8% (backed by KP)

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election
United Oppn     47.4% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.9% (backed by KP)

名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election
TCJ                  51.6%
Grand Alliance  45.0% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

0-4 for LDP.

[jaichind]

If the LDP lose badly today will Suga pull the trigger on early elections to pre-empt his rivals?

That would be the logical course of action: namely get a general election and win before the Sept 2021 LDP Prez race.  In this case that might not be an option given the Tokyo Olympics coming up and more importantly there is a current surge of COVID-19 infections.  An election now would be leave Suga accused by the opposition of putting his political career ahead of lives of ordinary Japanese.  I am sure Suga would have preferred a winter 2020 lower house election after he took over where you would have won in a landslide by a greater margin than 2017 but that option was not available for the same reason.

It seems unless COVID-19 speared suddenly falls off the cliff by May in which case Suga could try for a general election along with the Tokyo Prefecture election in early July, something the KP will fight tooth and nail against, he will have to accept a Fall 2021 general election.

[jaichind]

As of 6pm 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district turnout is lower by over 15% than at this time in 2017 while the Upper House by-elections are lower by around 5%-6% than the very low 2019 turnout election at the same time.  Note this does not include early voting which I am sure is down is well relative to 2017 and 2019 respectively.  On paper such low turnout helps LDP.  In this case it is just as likely that the lower turnout is more about lower LDP-KP turnout.

[jaichind]

Voting ends. 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district and 長野(Nagano) Upper House immediately called for CDP by NHK. 
 

[jaichind]

Initial exit poll also has United Opposition with a slight lead in 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election and also TCJ with a slight lead in 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election

[jaichind]

Exit poll for 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election looks a lot like my prediction with TCJ winning with slightly more than 50% of the vote.

[jaichind]

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election exit poll has United Opposition beating LDP by something like 50-45.  Close to my prediction but it seems I might have overestimated the minor candidates a bit.

[jaichind]

RCC exit poll for 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election has it United Opposition ahead 51-42 and have called the race for United Opposition.  Suga long night begins.

[jaichind]

Again, 長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election exit poll looks a lot like my prediction

[jaichind]

広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election exit poll by party support.  Even though 47% of voters are LDP supporters over 1/3 of those LDP voters (which includes hidden KP voters) defected to United Opposition.

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district exit poll.  Here it mostly matches my prediction in terms of hierarchy of candidates (CDP >> pro-LDP ind. >JRP > pro-LDP Ind.) but the exit poll has the CDP falling short of 50% whereas my prediction has CDP above 50%.  Here it seems I might have underestimated minor party candidates.

[jaichind]

中日新聞(Chunichi Shimbun) exit poll for 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election has a somewhat bigger lead for TCJ incumbent.   It seems that we can most likely safely assume he will cruise to re-election despite every mainstream party ganging up on it.

Kinds of fixed that old Nixon axiom: "If you hear about a stop X movement, put your money on X"   

[jaichind]

Party wise breakdown of 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election exit poll done by a united effort of 7 media houses.

It seems TCJ incumbent split LDP CDP and DPP almost 50/50 (54-44 for LDP, 48-50 for CDP, 52-48 for DPP).  Only KP voters loyally voted for the Grand Alliance LDP candidate.    TCJ voters, it seems, voted 100-0 in favor of TCJ leader and current incumbent.   The generally anti-LDP independents also went TCJ 54-42.   So the TCJ candidate ended up winning the LDP and anti-LDP vote by small margins.  

[jaichind]

NHK 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election exit poll seems to match the others

[jaichind]

Another 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election exit poll by party has JCP included

TCJ incumbent wins LDP voters 53.6 to 44.2
TCJ incumbent loses KP voters 81.6 to 17.2
TCJ incumbent loses CDP voters narrowly 50.0 to 47.6
TCJ incumbent loses JCP voters 74.4 to 22.1
TCJ incumbent wins DPP voter narrowly 51.9 to 41.8
TCJ incumbent wins TCJ votes 100 to 0
TCJ incumbent wins (traditionally anti-LDP) independents 54.6 to 42.2

Cadre party voters (KP and JCP) loyally voted for what their party wants even though it is for a LDP candidates.  LDP voters was most likely turned off by the Grand Alliance candidate being backed by CDP-DPP-JCP so defected to TCJ.  CDP-DPP and anti-LDP independents was most likely turned off by the Grand alliance candidate being from LDP so defected to TCJ.

So the TCJ incumbent was able to be at the same time the pro-LDP candidate and the anti-LDP candidate.

This type of party breakdown looks a lot like the 2016 LDP rebel Koike campaign for Tokyo governor.

[jaichind]

The 2019 LDP 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House gambit is now turning into a nightmare. 

In 2019, 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House will election 2 members with the top two vote getters winning.  In 2013 the winners were a long time LDP incumbent 溝手顕正(Mizote Kensei) who is from a faction opposed to Abe and a DPJ candidate.   As 2019 election approached it was assumed that 広島(Hiroshima) will be "simple" with both incumbents winning.   

But then Abe-Suga came up with a gambit.  Their logic was that JRP ran strong campaigns in 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House races in 2013 and 2016 but will not run in 2019.  They figured that if they put in another LDP candidate 河井案里(Kawai Anri) who is the wife of a LDP lower house MP who is aligned with Abe-Suga she can pick up the JRP vote left on the table and allow the LDP to win both seats.  The old DPJ incumbent ran as an independent with CDP-DPP support. 

Abe-Suga machine threw a lot of resources into 河井案里(Kawai Anri) campaign to try squeeze out a second LDP seat.  The result was the  long time LDP incumbent 溝手顕正(Mizote Kensei) falling the third place versus the Center-Left independent.

Center-Left independent incumbent      32.31%  (wins)
LDP 河井案里(Kawai Anri)                     28.99%   (wins)
LDP incumbant溝手顕正(Mizote Kensei)  26.47%   
JCP                                                      6.94%

The result was disappointing to Abe-Suga as they failed to get LDP to win both seats but they did achieve a secondary goal of getting rid of a anti-Abe Upper House MP and replacing him with a pro-Abe-Suga MP.

Then it came out that during this election 河井案里(Kawai Anri)  camp including herself engaged in vote buying.  After being found guilty she had to step down leading to this by-election.  With the united opposition candidate most likely to win the Abe-Suga gambit went from a 2-0 LDP sweep of 2019 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House election to 0-2.

[jaichind]

Mayor of Nagoya was part of movement to recall the Governor of Aichi Prefecture and most signatures for the recall turned out be forged.

名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election exit poll asked this question

Is the issue of forged signatures an issue for you:  Yes: 51.3 No: 47.2
If Yes how did you vote: TCJ 40.7 Grand Alliance 56.5

If so this issue did not really hurt the TCJ incumbent.  Even for voters that this issue mattered over 40% vote for him.

[jaichind]

Vote count so far. 

Almost all rural vote.  If it is neck-to-neck in 広島(Hiroshima) with only rural votes then the election there is pretty much over.


北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     
JRP                   
Pro LDP Ind.       


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (6% if the vote counted)
CDP                 54.7% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 43.4% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (5% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     46.8% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 47.3% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (no votes counted)
TCJ                 
Grand Alliance             (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

[jaichind]

An even more detailed version of the 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election exit poll by party support

TCJ incumbent wins JRP vote (not a surprise) and wins the PNHK vote 100-0.  TCJ incumbent wins RS vote by a good margin and seems to have split the SDP vote evenly with grand alliance candidate which is similar to CDP and DPP voters.

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.

Still mostly rural vote.  In 広島(Hiroshima) united opposition takes the lead.  With a bunch more urban votes to come she is unlikely to give up this lead.  In 長野(Nagano) the CDP candidate is strong with rural areas as well due to family connections to the prefecture.


北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     
JRP                   
Pro LDP Ind.       


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (12% if the vote counted)
CDP                 55.7% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 42.1% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (10% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     48.3% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 45.7% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (no votes counted)
TCJ                 
Grand Alliance             (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

[jaichind]

NHK called 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election for TCJ incumbent.  I guess they want to take a look at some of the urban numbers for 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election before calling that for united opposition.

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.

In 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) the vote count are estimates so so far it is exactly 50/50

北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     
JRP                   
Pro LDP Ind.       


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (18% if the vote counted)
CDP                 56.6% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 41.3% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (14% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     48.5% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.4% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (7% of the votes counted)
TCJ                  50.0%
Grand Alliance  50.0% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)


Count so far in 広島(Hiroshima).  Inland rural area count are going LDP (green) while coastal rural area count are going united opposition (red)

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.

The scale of the united opposition lead in 広島(Hiroshima)  is getting larger and is surprising given none of the real heavy urban vote is in yet.


北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.     
JRP                   
Pro LDP Ind.       


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (39% if the vote counted)
CDP                 53.2% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 44.7% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (28% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     50.7% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 43.2% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (30% of the votes counted)
TCJ                  51.6%
Grand Alliance  46.7% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)

[jaichind]

NHK calls 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election for united opposition

[jaichind]

Vote count so far.

A lot of the votes in 名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election are still estimates in ultra urban areas so I expect the gap to grow from here.  長野(Nagano) count is pretty representative so I expect these number to be very close to final result.
 
北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district Lower House by-election (no voted counted)
CDP                            (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
Pro-LDP Ind.    
JRP                  
Pro LDP Ind.      


長野(Nagano) Upper House by-election (77% if the vote counted)
CDP                 52.4% (backed by DPP-SDP-JCP)
LDP                 45.3% (backed by KP)


広島(Hiroshima) Upper House by-election (36% of the vote counted)
United Oppn     50.1% (backed by CDP-DPP-SDP implicit JCP support)
LDP                 44.2% (backed by KP)


名古屋市 (Nagoya City) mayor election (72% of the votes counted)
TCJ                  50.2%
Grand Alliance  48.1% (backed by LDP-KP-CDP-DPP implicit JCP support)