Ethiopia sends troops into the Tigray Reigon

[jaichind]

So was Abiy's peace deal with Eritrea a strategic move to target the TPLF?

I seriously don’t think they saw this coming.

I suspect he new it will come to this.  Abiy Ahmed was put in by the TPLF to be in charge of the EPRDF alliance to pacify rising Oromo resentment toward Tigrayan domination of the ruling front but was meant to be a puppet.  He then turned the tables on TPLF by merging all component parties of EPRDF into a one centralized party and along the way wipe out TPLF as an independent political force.  TPLF refused and retreated back to Tigray.  After that something like this was bound to take place given the two sides could not work out a power sharing compromise.

[jaichind]

The Eithiopian Army is marching on Tigray's reigional capital, Mekelle.

Ethiopia has entered the "final phase" of a "law enforcement" military operation in the northern restive region of Tigray after a 72-hour deadline to surrender expired, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tweeted in a statement on Thursday.

"The last peaceful gate which had remained open for the TPLF clique to walk through have now been firmly closed," the statement read, referring to the region's ruling party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front.

Abiy claimed "thousands of Tigray Special Forces and militia members" surrendered in that time -- a claim CNN has been unable to independently verify due to a communications blackout in the region. Internet, mobile phones and landlines are all down.

The Ethiopian federal forces have been notified to conclude the "final phase" of capturing the regional capital of Mekelle. On Saturday, the military said Mekelle would be surrounded by tanks and warned civilians to be aware of artillery as the military would have "no mercy for the junta."

This is very surprising. TPLF has a fairly large crack military force.  I find it hard to believe they will be beaten by the federal forces that quickly.

[jaichind]

The TPLF relationship with EPLF of Eretria is very interesting.  When TPLF was founded in the late 1970s it was just a bunch of college students running around in the mountains. It was EPLF that provided them with funding, training and weapons in the early 1980s that got TPLF to become an viable insurgent organization.   Then TPLF helped EPLF to wipe out its rival ELF before the two organizations turned on Derg.  There must have been a deal between TPLF and EPLF that once they defeat the Derg regime which they did in 1991 that TPLF will back Eretria independence under EPLF while EPLF will support TPLF to take over the rest of Ethiopia.  I guess later on TPLF regretted this move since it left TPLF controlled  Ethiopia without any access to the Ocean and then TPLF and EPLF turned on each other which I guess now is still ongoing.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/28/ethiopia-tigray-mekele-control/

"Rebel forces in Tigray claim to have regained control of the embattled Ethiopian region’s capital"

After months of the Ethiopian government claiming that TPLF is almost finished it seems TPLF have recaptured Tigray capital of Mekele.

In the meantime the Ethiopian government have declared a ceasefire.  Seems like a rerun of the First Chechen War of 1994-1996.

[jaichind]

It seems what took place was was the significant part of the Ethiopian forces (3 divisions) were destroyed in an ambush in the hill areas North of Mekele.



This seems to be a classical partisan strategy of luring a motorized force into a hilly area where motorization became a liability and in an ambush a non-motorized force is able to surround and destroy a motorized force.  The TPLF was then was to push quickly to surround cities like Mekele and Adigart.  The Ethiopian  forces there  were cut off and with no supplies had to try to break out and were destroyed in turn through ambushes.

This seems like a rerun on how the ROC armed forces were defeated by the PLA in the 1945-1949 Civil war.  The battle in the hills North of Mekele seems like a rerun of the decisive battle of Menglianggu in in May 1947 where an elite motorized ROC force was surrounded by the PLA in an ambush in hilly areas where the motorized nature of the elite ROC force became an liability.

 

Of course this war is not over.  There are still large number of Amhara militias who have their own beef with the Tigraians to be mobilized and perhaps be part of a second wind of an future Ethiopian offensive half an year from now.  Also for now   Ethiopian army still controls the Sudan-Tigray border which still means that TPFA are still boxed in by  Ethiopian army and Eretria.

[jaichind]

TPLF victory parade. Thousands of Ethiopian POWs marched through. Looks like something out of WWII. Notice the presence of child soldiers among the crowd.
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/africa/100000007848345/ethiopia-prisoners-marched-tigray-mekelle.html

Yeah.  I think they are trying to copy the march of the German soldiers captured from the Battle of Minsk through Moscow in July 1944

[jaichind]

Despite the unilateral "ceasefire" by the Ethiopian armed forces, the TPLF seems to be lunching offensives in Western Tigray to open a link to the Sudan border.  If they managed to do that and allow TPFA to get military supplies from Sudan then that would cut off a military solution to the conflict for the foreseeable future.

[jaichind]

There are claims that TPLF are in Kombolcha and Dessie. If so the is very bad news for the Addis Ababa regime because these cities are in the road juncture between the port of Djibouti and Addis Ababa and could cut off supplies into Addis Ababa.  I suspect if true that the Addis Ababa regime will throw everything into driving TPLF back.

[jaichind]

Wow.  A possible rerun of 1991.  Tigray is truly the Prussia of the Horn of Africa.

[jaichind]

What could this mean for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations?

Eritrea is going to be invaded soon.

I doubt TPLF and their OLA allies have the ambition to completely take over Ethiopia completely like in 1991.  I think their plan is to stop outside Addis Ababa and then try to work out a deal for autonomy or even independence for Tigray.  I agree after that they might try to exact some revenge for what Eritrean forces did during their occupation of Northern Tigray last year and earlier this year.  I suspect those operations will be limited as well.  I am not sure how much material basis Tigray has to continue fighting like this.

[jaichind]

While it is totally possible that we will see a rapid collapse of the Addis Ababa regime like Kabul back in the summer, the terrine the TPLF will now have to cross to reach Addis Ababa is not as favorable.  Up until now, the battles between ENDF and TPLF have been engaged in are in hilly and mountainous areas of Tigray and Eastern Amhara.  For TPLF to now reach  Addis Ababa they will not have to cross flat terrain where the mechanized forces of ENDF will have a firepower advantage.  This is part of the reason why Western Tigray is still in the hands of ENDF and Amhara militias even as this cuts TPLF from Sudan.  After retaking Mekelle in the Summer TPLF has focused on moving into Eastern Amhara as opposed to Western Tigray partly because that is the route to Addis Ababa but also because the terrain there favors their style of fighting.   It is totally possible the morale breaks in ENDF and the Amhara militias but at least now the terrine favors them if they are willing to fight.

[jaichind]

It seems TPLF ally Oromo Liberation Army is a lot closer to Addis Ababa than TPLF forces.  This is because Addis Ababa is in Oromo region itself.  Due to ENDF shifting to Eastern Amhara to stop TPLF the OLA is now expanding and moving toward  Addis Ababa.  In the meantime, the Amhara militia grows bigger and bigger threatened by the growth of TPLF.  It will not surprise me that soon the Amhara militia will itself become bigger than ENDF.  At some stage in the future, the Addis Ababa regime might just become the regime of Amhara just like at some stage in the Yugoslav Civil War the Yugoslav federal forces and government merely became the arm of Greater Serbia.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/24/ethiopia-pm-has-gone-to-wars-frontlines-state-affiliated-media

"Ethiopia’s PM has gone to the battlefront: State-affiliated media"

TPLF-OLA getting close to Debre Sina.  This is the last defensible town before the major city and military node of Debre Birhan.  If Debre Birhan were to fall then the road is open to a joint advance on  Addis Ababa with OLA forces to the West of  Addis Ababa. 

So Abiy Ahmed is either looking to flee the country (unlikely) or wanted to play a role to boost the morale of his troops ahead of the decisive battles of  Debre Sina and possibly Debre Birhan.  One point I have made before, the road between Debre Sina and Debre Birhan is flat and without much foliage.  So if TPLF-OLA were to travel down that road to reach Debre Birhan they will be vulnerable to the ENDF airforce.   The main risk for Abiy Ahmed is that ENDF morale cracks before then if Debre Sina were to fall.  So I assume Abiy Ahmed is motivated to prevent such cracking of morale by being at the front and ensuring that if the battle moves to terrine that plays to ENDF strengths that they are still a fighting force.

[jaichind]

According to

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&ll=12.992238631835509%2C34.923995799999986&z=5

TPLF elements have reached Debre Sina.  If they capture Debre Sina they will have to traverse up a steep hill to reach the open road to Debre Birhan which is the last major city before Addis Ababa.  If the ENDF cannot hold this high ground when TPLF-OLA does not have an airforce that would mean that most likely it is about to crack and the end of the Abiy Ahmed regime will be coming soon.

[jaichind]

What's the source ?

I am not sure.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1q-M9x3Kshld2Ys36jDU0Y45TmvE7E0km&ll=12.992238631835509%2C34.923995799999986&z=5

is part of a link given in Wikipedia that it uses to create situation maps.  The events mentioned in that google map do seem to correspond to events that other media also report on.  They just put it on a map.

[jaichind]

There does seem to be an  ENDF and local pro-ENDF Afar militia offensive Westward from Mile toward Kombolcha which TPLF captured in late October.  Back in early Nov TPLF-OLA forces did seem to drive Eastward toward Mile to cut supplies from Djibouti to  Addis Ababa.  That offensive failed mostly because of the flat, dry, and desert-like terrain.  Now ENDF is trying to counter-attack and cut the main TLPF force that is attacking Debre Sina from Tigray itself.  Most likely this will fail since the terrain near Kombolcha is much more favorable to TPLF.  In the meantime, Abiy Ahmed seems to be making a big deal of this offensive since he needs all the good news in the media he can get.

[jaichind]

Just chiming in to remind people that the Oromo are also rebelling against the Amhara-dominated central government. They can match the Amhara in numbers. In fact that seems to be the current TPLF goal: to link up with the OLA.

The utter moral vacuity of the Eritrean government is amazing: the Amhara were the ones committing genocide against them in the 1970s and 1980s and they went in on their side? Nationalist movement my ass.

Sure but since the 1970s everyone has been friends with enemies with each other.  Back in the 1970s EPLF and TPLF were close.  EPLF helped TPLF get started and TPLF helped EPLF wipe out its ELF rival before both turned on Derg.  Also while TPLF was the ruling party of Ethiopia before 2018 it was quite hostile toward OLA.

[jaichind]

"Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics"  -Omar Bradley

That seems to be what is going on with Eritrea.  When TPLF was making rapid progress toward Addis Ababa starting in Oct I was confused on why Eritrea did not launch attacks into Tigray to relieve pressure on ENDF since there will be payback on Eritrea if TPLF were to win a total victory.  A look at the situational map shows why.  It seems that Western Tigray, and its link to pro-TPLF Sudan, is still in the hands of ENDF-Amhara militias.   My conjecture is that Eritrea is focused on its resources on supporting ENDF-Amhara militias controlling Western  Tigray.  With TPLF's attempt to capture Mile having failed the supply lines for ENDF are intact while TPLF is still short of war supplies with no prospect of gaining new sources other than capturing ENDF supplies.  So from a supply point of view time is on ENDF's side ergo TPLF-OLA is rushing to try to win an all-out victory soon.  It seems that Eritrea is making a bet that TPLF's supply problems would mean it would fall short of total victory and that it will prioritize ensuring TPLF's supply problem continue.

[jaichind]

The news last few days seems to be more favorable for ENDF.  It seems they have beaten back the main advance from TPLF toward Debre Birhan (which is being disputed by TPLF) and the ENDF attacks on the flanks of the TPLF advance seem to be making progress (TPLF does seem to admit to some tactical withdraws in these regions.) 

The battle state seems a lot like the early stages of the An Lushan Rebellion against the Tang dynasty of 755-763.  An Lushan who was the military governor of the region now around Beijing sought to drive to the Tang capital of Changan.  The Tang strategy was to hold them off using various defensive barriers while attacking the flanks of the   An Lushan advance.  The Tang correctly figured out that in the long run, An Lushan does not have the resources to fight forever and the best strategy was to try to cut his army advancing on Changan from his now Beijing base. 




The strategy almost worked but political pressure to beat the rebellion early trigged a head-on attack from Changan toward the  An Lushan army advancing on it and its total destruction led to  An Lushan taking Changan resulting in a long war and 8 years before it was beaten.

Most of the ENDF  reverses so far have been resulting from trying to attack TPLF head-on to destroy it leading to its own destruction.  Now it seems to have learned lessons to play the long game, take strong defensive positions to hold back the TPLF offensive, and counter-attack them on the flanks while slowly draining them of supplies. 

The x-factor is OLA which is making its own plans to move on Addis Ababa from the west but the OLA is nowhere as organized and powerful as TPLF.

[jaichind]

In the last few days, ENDF seems to be advancing on all fronts.  In the main TPLF axis of advance, it seems ENDF successfully beat back TPLF's attempt to capture Debre Sina and have driven TPLF back to a position just south of Kombolcha and Dessie.  This means in the TPLF main axis of advance we are back to the position of early Nov 2021.  On the flanks of the TPLF advance, the ENDF is re-taking towns TPLF captured in August.

It seems while TPLF is stronger tactically the ENDF has, for now, made superior strategic choices.  After retaking Mekelle and driving ENDF out of Eastern Tigray the TPLF could have focused on

a) recapturing Western Tigary to open supply routes to Sudan
b) capturing Mile to cut Addis Ababa from the port of Djibouti
c) drive toward Addis Ababa via Debre Birhan

Choices a) and b) are about fighting a long war and choice c) is about fighting a short war.  Now that TPLF choose c) and failed to drive to Debre Birhan this is turning into a long war and not choosing a) or b) is going to hurt TPLF.

Over the next few days, ENDF might be in a position to recapture Kombolcha and Dessie.  Whether they can do so really depends on how much war supplies TPLF still has and how organized ENDF has become.

[jaichind]

In the last 24 hours, the ENDF continues to gain ground and seems to be closing in  Kombolcha and Dessie although ENDF claims that they have recaptured both cities does not seem to be true.  The shifting of the front indicates that the turning point was, as I predicted, at Debre Sina.   For TPLF to get to Addis Ababa they have to first capture Debre Birhan.  And the gate to Debre Birhan is  Debre Sina. So ENDF had the advantage of knowing that TPLF HAD to get past Debre Sina, get up the steep hill, and then get to the road to Debre Birhan.  It is clear TPLF got to  Debre Sina and after a few days had to pull back and after that continued to lose ground to ENDF.  It seems what took place was, as I thought would take place, ENDF used the fortified hills along with drones and ENDF airforce, drove back the TPLF attack.

[jaichind]

Looks like significant fighting is taking place near Kombolcha with ENDF launching attacks to try to take the city.  So far while TPLF is on the defensive but is still holding Kombolcha.  It seems that increased drone activity is helping the ENDF last few days.  ENDF is operating drones from UAE, Turkey, and PRC.  UAE and Turkey seem to be directly operating those drones while PRC drones are being operated by UAE military personnel who were trained on how to operate PRC drones.  

Just like the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, drones are playing a significant role in this conflict.  

The good news for TPLF is the area around Kombolcha is more mountainous which is favorable to TPLF than the more flat terrain in the battles to the south earlier. 

[jaichind]

https://www.senenews.com/actualites/societe/ethiopie-le-gouvernement-dit-avoir-repris-les-villes-cles-de-dessie-et-kombolcha_378071.html

Looks like ENDF recapture Kombolcha and Dessie.  No TPLF denails so most likely true. If so major victory for ENDF.  TPLF might have shot its bolt and is now in retreat.  TPLF has to stop fighting conventional battles and lure ENDF into advancing too quickly and ambush them.   That is how TPLF won earlier this year and they have to get back to basics.

[jaichind]

When Abiy Ahmed left the capital to go to the front 10 days ago one working theory was that he was trying to escape the country.  It seems what was taking place was that he knew that the tide would turn soon so he went to the front to claim full credit for the turning of the tide.

[jaichind]

So in a little more than a month, the front moved over almost 400km.  The distance from Debre Sina Kombolcha is almost 200km.  So in 30 some odd days TPLF took Kombolcha and advanced 200km to Debre Sina where it was repulsed and retreated back to Kombolcha before losing it.  Truly a war of movement.