Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[jaichind]

Can we now expect a return to the revolving door of Japanese Prime Ministers similar to before 2012 where the PM seemed to change once a year?

Given Suga's age is he just seen as a placeholder PM?

Not likely.  The only reason we had the  "revolving door of Japanese Prime Minister" is because in the 2007-2013 period except for 1 year in 2009-2010 the ruling bloc did not have a majority in the Upper House which made it impossible to pass any meaningful legislation.  This made the PM look weak and loss popularity really fast leading to the PM resigning.  Even if Suga loses some seats in the next general election it is very unlikely the LDP-KP will lose overall majority in the Upper House elections in 2022 so Suga should be around for an election cycle or two.

[jaichind]

254 out of 289 "constituency" seats for the LDP - have they ever managed that many before?

That would be unprecedented.  Understand that this projection will have LDP by itself a good deal above 2/3 of the seats.  The only election I think this could have happen was the 2001 Upper House Koizumi landslide where the LDP-NCP-KP alliance got 55.9% of the PR vote.  Japanese Upper House elections have a lot of multi-member seats but if these PR vote results were replicated a FPTP environment and the entire LDP-NCP-KP PR vote were transferred to the mostly LDP candidates in the FPTP seats AND the opposition vote were to be split between, say DPJ, LP and JCP candidates I can see the LDP winning a district landslide of such a scale. 

Main problem is I do not see any of these conditions actually taking place in the next general election
a) LDP-KP PR vote might be close to 50% or maybe exceed it but it will not be by much
b) CDP JCP will have alliances, especially in marginal seats. DPP and JRP will run some candidates here or there but even then there will be tactical alliances  between CDP-JCP and DPP/JRP on a seat by seat basis.

[jaichind]

Based on the 2017 results, how many LDP seats would be in danger of falling to joint opposition candidates? And will the SDP ever merge or dissolve with the main centre-left opposition party? They are already irrelevant outside Okinawa and the Kyushu PR block.

On paper, I count 53 LDP held seats from 2017 that if the non-JRP opposition forces (CDP HP JCP and other opposition candidates) joined forces could flip.  In reality only about 2/3 of those targets are realistic because of fundamentals of those districts (larger number of opposition candidates also meant they were able to eat into LDP-KP PR vote which cannot be expected to transferred to a common opposition candidate.)  Also note that 5 opposition winners of 2017 have since defected to the LDP and while in some of those seats that have caused LDP to split between the defector and the 2017 LDP candidate overall all 5 seats are expected to flip to LDP.  So even in a very favorable election for the opposition they can only gain 30-35 district seats at most and will lose 5 to LDP.  Given Suga's current popularity even that is not realistic if the election is held soon.  So at beast for the opposition the LDP-KP can be expected to lose a dozen or two seats  and there is a realistic chance LDP-KP may gain seats.  A key X factor is the JRP vote.  With Suga having greater urban appeal it is totally possible he can pull in some urban JRP voters to further  augment the LDP lead.

[jaichind]

So in the end rump DPP will have 13 MP (6 Lower House and 7 Upper House).  DPP at this stage is really made up of
a) DPP leader 玉木雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) and friends
b) enemies of CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) like fromer DP leader 前原誠司(Maehara Seiji)
c) various politicians associated with the factions of Rengo that choose not to work with JCP mostly centered in the old rust belt 愛知(Aichi) and 静岡(Shizuoka)

What CDP get out of this is most of the old DPJ/DP funds and most of the ground troops that that they clearly lacked back in 2017 and 2019.

DPP most likely will have tactical alliances with CDP and JRP to try to survive and carve out a niche in the political market.
 

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54216632

Japan's former prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has visited a controversial war memorial just days after stepping down.

Mr Abe posted a picture of himself at the Yasukuni Shrine, telling his followers he had gone there to inform the spirits of his resignation.

He largely stayed away from the shrine, which honours Japan's war dead, but also convicted war criminals, during his time as prime minister.

Mr Abe's 2013 visit angered China and South Korea.

Japan's occupation of its two neighbours ended with its defeat in 1945 and the conclusion of the Second World War.

I guess when you aren't Prime Minister you don't care about insulting other countries, do you?

I mostly break with my Chinese compatriots on this.  I see nothing wrong with Japanese politicians visiting the  Yasukuni Shrine.  It is a  Shrine that honors those that fought for Japan and died in its defense.  We Chinese have plenty of shrines/temples like this and I have visited many of such Chinese shrines/temples with a great sense of gratitude and respect.  Sure, some of those honored Yasukuni Shrine might have been considered war criminals by some but that is like saying for the USA to have a positive relationship with Vietnam the US President cannot visit the Vietnam Memorial.

The core issue here is not Japan but an issue of a problem of low self-esteem when it comes to WWII for many Chinese.  We know we we really did not defeat Japan and the Japanese know it too.  The need for us to demand the Japanese apologize over and over again stems from our desire for us Chinese to hear from the Japanese "we lost to you fair and square".  And the fact is we will never hear that because it is not true.  It was the USA that defeat Japan.  We Chinese just went along for the ride.  All we Chinese accomplished in WWII was to avoid defeat but victory was not ours.

We Chinese have to move on from this absurd issue and deal with Japanese as a neighbor that shares a common cultural heritage with us and should in normal circumstances should be a friendly power.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll which is massive and for now seems like an outlier

Suga Cabinet approval/disapproval 74/14

Party support

LDP    47 (+6)
KP       3
JRP      2
DPP     1
CDP     4
SDP     0 (-1)
JCP      2 (+1)

PR vote is more amazing

LDP     55
KP         6
JRP       6
DPP      1
CDP      8
RS        1
SDP      0
JCP       3

Most other polls clearly show a very popular Suga cabinet and massive leads for LDP but this one seems the most extreme, especially with that 55 for the LDP PR vote.

Most likely honeymoon effect which will wear off soon enough as soon as Suga have to start making real decisions

[jaichind]

Party support trends

LDP party support


Other party support


It seems the LDP surge after Abe resigned has mostly been at the expense of JRP.  This makes sense as the JRP surge since the Spring due to the COVID-19 crisis has been at the expense of LDP.  This support is now flowing back.

CDP did not really get a bump from the CDP-DPP merger.  This is very different from 2003 when LP merged into DPJ which led to a huge jump in support for DPJ and started the 2003-2012 era when the DPJ was very competitive with LDP-KP.

Main depression lesson for the Center-Left Opposition is that any LDP stumble will help JRP and not CDP.  All CDP could do next election cycle or two is to prevent a LDP-KP 2/3 majority but dislodging LDP-KP will be very tall order.

[jaichind]

JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan referendum poll.

For              47.8%
Against        36.8%

Last time around in 2015 when the plan was narrowly defeated in the 2015 referendum all polls had a significant lead for Against.  The fact For is well ahead in polls likely means it will pass with significant margin

[jaichind]

The CDP-DPP merger party rebranding will have the CDP logo going from



to



Truly a brand new look for the main opposition party in Japan

[jaichind]

List of logos of all Japanese parties



All of them quite boring (I think that is a feature and not a bug) with the JCP one being the most interesting.

[jaichind]

Nikkei reports that Suga is unlikely to call an early election for 2020 and would prefer to have an election in 2021.  Suga seems to believe he can get a few policy wins under his belt and then face the electorate with a set of accomplishments.  Many in the LDP are still trying to pressure Suga to strike now while the LDP have a massive lead in the polls pointing to missed opportunities in 2008 to call an election while the DPJ itself was divided and absorbed in infighting and LDP had regained the lead in the polls since the 2007 Upper House election debacle.   It seems Suga is not listing to them.  Of course an election in 2021 will have to be early 2021 or else KP will have objections to having an national election so close to the critical Tokyo prefecture elections that KP prioritize as its top priority.

[jaichind]

Latest JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum poll.

For              45.3 (-2.5)
Against        40.2 (+3.4)



The gap has closed since last poll.  Still, For should be en route to a victory. 

[jaichind]

Latest JX-ABS Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum poll has the gap closing a bit more



For              45.4 (+0.1)
Against        42.3 (+2.1)

[jaichind]

Oct 25th is 富山(Toyama) governor election

This should have been an easy race for the pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu) to win a 4th term against a pro-CCP candidate.  But a LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) has emerged to take on the incumbent turning it into a 3 way race.  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s grandfather was governor in the 1940s and 1950s and has deep roots here.  He is also backed by JRP and a rebel LDP faction.



The race is expected to be neck-to-neck between the pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP rebel.  DPP is baking the pro-LDP incumbent along with LDP-KP while CDP seems to be sitting this one out not backing the pro-JCP candidate nor the LDP rebel.  

[jaichind]

Latest Go2senkyo/JX poll on PR voting intentions (diff from Sept poll)

LDP    37.2 (-1.0)
KP       7.1  (+0.8 )
PNHK   0.8 (+0.1)
JRP      7.2 (-2.2)
DPP     1.1 (-0.1)
CDP   18.5 (---)
RS       1.3 (-0.3)
SDP     2.1 (+1.0)
JCP      6.4 (+0.4)

Not much change other than a slight swing to the Center-Left parties and JRP dropping.  This type of polling seems to imply around a LDP-KP PR vote of close to 50% which would be enough for a landslide even of the Center-Left parties maintain their alliance with JCP in critical swing districts.  For now Suga is able to maintain a large LDP PR vote share lead.

[jaichind]

KNB poll for 富山(Toyama) governor election has  pro-LDP incumbent 石井隆一(Ishii Takakazu) and LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) neck-to-neck with the pro-JCP candidate far behind.  The poll does not give much details other than  pro-LDP incumbent 石井隆一(Ishii Takakazu)  is stronger with youth and the elderly and JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) is stronger with middle aged voters (which would make sense as the that is where JRP is stronger.)

[jaichind]

SDP it seems, just like DPP, might split.  Just like DPP, a good part of the grassroots want to merge into CDP but the leadership wants to stay independent.



Most likely SDP will split with majority of the MP and MLA joining CDP and a rump SDP, if that is even possible given how small it is, will continue on.  In other words a replay of DPP split but with a smaller base/party.

[jaichind]

Where do the handful of remaining elected SDP people stand?

Most of them are for merging with CDP

[jaichind]

Oct 25th is 富山(Toyama) governor election

This should have been an easy race for the pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu) to win a 4th term against a pro-CCP candidate.  But a LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) has emerged to take on the incumbent turning it into a 3 way race.  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s grandfather was governor in the 1940s and 1950s and has deep roots here.  He is also backed by JRP and a rebel LDP faction.



The race is expected to be neck-to-neck between the pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP rebel.  DPP is baking the pro-LDP incumbent along with LDP-KP while CDP seems to be sitting this one out not backing the pro-JCP candidate nor the LDP rebel.  

NHK exit poll has  JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) well ahead of pro-LDP incumbent 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu).  新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) is also the brother of former 北海道(Hokkaido) governor and now LDP Upper House MP 高橋 はるみ(Takahashi Harumi).  So now we we have brother and sister governors of different prefectures although not at the same time.  Sort of like W and Jeb Bush although in this case 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) ran as a LDP rebel.

[jaichind]

Latest joint media poll on Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum has No taking a tiny need on a pretty strong swing



For            43.3 (-5.9)
Against      43.5 (+4.0)

I still think it passes narrowly although Against clearly have the momentum

[jaichind]

富山(Toyama) governor election.  With 64% of the vote in it is

JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)       49.6%
LDP-KP-DPP backed 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu)       45.3%
pro-JCP                                                              5.1%

Race closer than exit polls indicated.  pro-JCP candidate at 5.1% shows most of the CDP and part of JCP base went over to the LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro), giving him the victory.

[jaichind]

富山(Toyama) governor election counting done

JRP backed LDP rebel 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)       53.5%
LDP-KP-DPP backed 石井 隆一(Ishii Takakazu)       41.8%
pro-JCP                                                              4.7%

As urban areas came in 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro)'s lead grew which sort of adds to the argument that 新田八朗(Nitta Hachiro) won by winning a part of the LDP base and added most of the non-JCP anti-LDP opposition vote.

[jaichind]

Summery of latest polls on Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum

                    Asahi         ABC TV            Yomiuri          Kyodo
YES               39               46.9                 44               43.3
NO                 41              41.2                 41               43.6


Breakdown of the Kyodo poll by age/gender reveals high level of support of youth males (JRP base) and opposition from the elderly and young women as well.  If so for JRP to win they have to hope for heavy turnout since the elderly will turn out no matter what.
 

[jaichind]

With polls showing Osaka Metropolis plan Nov 1st referendum being close, one key factor would be how the KP vote goes.  Back in 2015 the KP vote mostly went against the Osaka Metropolis plan despite a JRP-KP alliance at the prefecture level.  This time around KP is coming out in favor of the plan.  The reason why that is is because JRP has threatened to run candidates against KP in the next Lower Hose election in the 4 大阪(Osaka) and 2 兵庫(Hyōgo) district seats that the KP currently hold if the KP high command did not come out in favor of the Osaka Metropolis plan.  It is not clear if the KP base would respond given the fact that the KP high command most likely would not put a lot of effort into mobilizing the KP vote versus just paying lip service to JRP.

The JRP base has grown since 2015 and DPP is also de facto for the Osaka Metropolis plan as part of the growling likelihood that DPP might form a tactical alliance with JRP in the upcoming Lower House election.  All this points to a greater than 50% chance that the Osaka Metropolis plan does pass although by a smaller margin that one would have expected a couple of months ago.

[jaichind]

Voting in  Osaka Metropolis plan referendum done

Turnout most likely around 64% which is a couple of percentage points lower than 2015

Exit polls has it neck-to-neck with slight edge to No.  Party breakout LDP breaking against (expected) and KP vote evenly split
NHK exit poll has it slight edge to No
 


MBS exit poll has it at
No  52.8%
Yes 52.8%

Final ABC/JX poll has it at
Yes   45.0(-1.9）
No    46.6(+5.4)


All these info seems to point to a last minute surge for No.  I wonder if it is the Osaka LDP finally got some of its base to vote No or the KP base breaking against the plan despite what their leadership indicates or both as per NHK exit polls