Japan General Discussion: You Gotta Be Kishid-ing Me

[jaichind]

NHK calls it for No.  Huge blow to JRP

[jaichind]

Even thought NHK has called it for No with 93% of the vote in it is Yes ahead 50.2-49.8 on the NHK site.  Of course like I said, the remaining vote has a clear No lean.

[jaichind]

Winners/Losers:

JRP: Big loser. This cuts off JRP's route try to go national again like in 2012 and could see JRP regress into a Osaka based party.

Osaka LDP: Huge winners.  Osaka LDP hates, HATES, JRP to the point where they have an alliance with JCP to take on JRP.  Anything bad for JRP is good for Osaka LDP

Suga: Small loser.  Abe-Suga axis always had a positive relationship with JRP and deep down would favor JRP over Osaka LDP.  Suga would prefer JRP wins the vote since JRP going national in a big way like in 2012 again might LDP on the long run but clearly in the short run JRP will cut into the Center-Left vote more than the LDP vote

KP: Big loser.  KP base did note vote as KP high command instructed and seems like was the critical element in the No victory.  JRP did not run candidates against KP Osaka seats in 2017 in exchange for KP support in the next Osaka referendum.  Now KP high command has been humiliated AND in revenge JRP might run candidates against the KP in Osaka in the next Lower House election.

CDP: Small winner.  JRP not going national keeps the lane open for CDP to be the main opposition party in Japan at the national level.  CDP now has a chance to build slowly toward being a true rival to the LDP in a couple of election cycles much like DPJ did in the 2000-2007 period.

[jaichind]

JRP leader and Osaka mayor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) resigns as JRP leader.  Osaka prefecture governor 吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) will take over as JRP leader for now.   松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) is very popular in Osaka prefecture and having him slowly retire from active politics is a blow to JRP.

[jaichind]

With 98% in it is Yes 49.6 No 50.4.  In 2015 the result was Yes 49.6 No 50.4. 
I suspect No will gain some more so in the end No gains a tiny swing relative to 2015.

[jaichind]

Is the JCP also not a victor in this?

Yeah.  Good point.  But since JCP is never going to get close to the center of power in Japan it does not really mean much.  I do think JRP overt anti-JCP stance also drove away JCP voters that otherwise would have think the Osaka Metropolitan plan might be a good one. 

[jaichind]

Last time in 2015 when JRP lost the Osaka Metropolis Plan referendum the consequences were

a) Osaka mayor and JIP leader Hashimoto resigns from politics
b) Resulting vacuum in the JIP lead to a split between the core Osaka base and various defectors from DPJ and YP from 2012.  The DPJ and YP defectors saw that without Hashimoto no one is going to be able to drive votes to them as they are mostly outside Osaka.  They took over the party and merged it with DPJ to form DP as the Osaka core split off and formed ORA and renamed JRP once the rump JIP merged with DPJ.

There might be some churn after this referendum defeat for the JRP but most likely not as much as 2015-2016.

[jaichind]

It seems that Osaka mayor 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) will most likely resign as Osaka mayor while new JRP leader 吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) will continue to serve his his term as Osaka governor.  吉村 洋文(Yoshimura Hirofumi) did indicate that he will not be pushing Osaka Metropolis Plan again given its second defeat in a referendum. 

[jaichind]

With pretty much all the votes in No wins 50.6 to 49.4

[jaichind]

PNHK "The Party to Protect the People from NHK" will rename itself as "Golf Party (The Party to Protect the People from NHK)".  They want to add scrapping the Golf tax to the anti-NHK agenda.  I have no idea how to label this party since they have no official English name so I guess I will stick with PNHK

[jaichind]

SDP votes to merge into CDP.  SDP leader 福島 瑞穂(Fukushima Mizuho) who oppose this move will form a rump SDP.  The 3 other SDP MPs will merge with pro-merger SDP into CDP.  Not clear what will happen to the various local prefecture SDP branches. Especially critical are the 大分(Ōita), 宮崎
(Miyazaki), 鹿児島(Kagoshima), and 沖縄(Okinawa) branches where the local SDP have some strength.  Most likely they will mostly merge into CDP.

[jaichind]

The concept of rump SDP of course is pretty funny since even before the current split it is already a rump version of the SDP of the 1990s which in turn is a rump version of the SDP of the 1980s.

So on the Japan Center-Left

CDP - main Center-Left party.  Main appeal to urban middle class and some support with the old labor union Rengo vote.

Rump DPP - most likely can win 4-5 district seats based on the personal vote of key MPS and get to 2%-3% PR vote wise based on part of the old Rengo union vote.  This means their PR vote are wasted in Lower House elections but can perhaps get a seat in Upper House.  Can stay relevant by forming alliances with the CDP on the Left and JRP on the Right.  Once its key MPs leave the political scene I foresee this party most likely merging into JRP.

RS - Left populist party centered around anti-nulear activist 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).  Centered around the Greater Tokyo area. I think the 2019 Upper House election might have been its peak since it had novel appeal.  Will find it hard to do well in Lower House district seats but I guess can get a few seats on the PR section

Rump SDP - I think now their vote will fall to 1% which makes them irrelevant

JCP - Still good for around 8% of the vote and critical for CDP to have a chance in district seats by standing down in marginal seats in return for CDP support in LDP stronghold seats for JCP to run.  JCP is not really interested in power but more interested in getting their message out even if their message will never be in the majority.

[jaichind]

Documents showing that Shinzo Abe may have broken the law by paying for part of the expenses of a dinner party for his supporters have been published.

Hotel documents show former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe's camp paid part of the expenses for a dinner party held for his supporters the night before an annual cherry blossom viewing party, NHK public TV said on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

Politicians in Japan are strictly forbidden to give anything to constituents that could be construed as a gift. The rule is so strict that one cabinet minister quit in 2014 after distributing paper fans during the summer.

In May, about 660 lawyers and scholars filed a complaint with Tokyo prosecutors seeking an investigation into whether Abe and two executives of his political support group broke campaign and funding laws by subsidising the attendance of backers at the reception in 2018, Kyodo news agency then reported.

逮捕安倍 or Arrest Abe is now one of the top google searches in Japan.  BTW, I think this is the Japan Deep state bureaucracy striking back at Abe  for Abe's maneuver earlier this year of trying to extend the term of  his crony 黒川 弘務(Kurokawa Hiromu)  as the head of the Tokyo High Public Prosecutor’s Office.  The Tokyo University Law School alumni is very powerful but it is hard for them to strike at Abe while he is in office.  Once he is out of office it is a different story.  The "crime" Abe is being accused here is is minor, trivial and a technicality.  But it seems the Japan Deep State wants to use this to get some revenge for Abe trying to break with unwritten rules.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/29/national/politics-diplomacy/january-snap-election-corona/

Looks like given continued COVID-19 problems Suga has accepted that the general election will be in the Fall after the Tokyo Olympics.  That will most likely help CDP since unlike 2014 and 2017 the opposition would not be caught off guard by a snap election.  CDP has a major funding deficit with LDP but knowing when the election will be will help the CDP shift resources and form alliance in time for the election.


Also, it seems LDP will crack down on the double candidacy rule for the Lower House elections

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/17/national/politics-diplomacy/ldp-double-candidacy-rule-upsets-party-members/

The idea is that in Lower House elections a candidate can run on both a district and PR slate and a losing district candidate can still win on PR as a "best loser".  Since the LDP in 2012 2014 and 2017 won landslides in the district seat that left a lot of open PR seats for district loser to win in.  In fact in 2012 2014 and 2017 almost call LDP candidates "won" by being election as a MP either in the district vote or PR slate.

Now the LDP wants to introduce tighter rules that says if you lose 2 district elections in a row you cannot run on the PR slate a third time to get revived.  The idea is the LDP is a party of winners and not losers.  The fact is there are around 30-35 district seats where the LDP will find it hard to win.  Perhaps the rule should be "if you cannot exceed the LDP+KP PR vote 2 elections in a row in a losing effort you cannot run a third time on the PR slate."  That way LDP MPs that are running in districts with a strong anti-LDP lean are not penalized unfairly.

[jaichind]

Latest polls show Suga's honeymoon is ending

Suga cabinet Approval/Disapproval has approval heading down to 50 and most likely lower


LDP support (green) is still higher than early 2020 but clearly lower than when Suga took over


CDP (light blue) support steady while JRP (light green) summer surge is clearly over


Approval for government handling of COVID-19 heading negative again


With national elections now clearly being in late 2021 the situation can only get worse from here for Suga unless he can create an economic resurgence in 2021 as well as getting COVID-19 under control plus a successful Tokyo Olympics.  All of them seem less and less likely.  As a result Suga, it seems, will rush out a third economic stimulus to try to jack up the economy in 2021.  Suga is running with COVID-19 and 2019 sales tax increase as a headwind.

[jaichind]

Though the LDP/Suga numbers in his immediate honeymoon were surely unsustainable?

(ie some reversion to the norm is only to be expected)

Abe's honeymoon after his 2012 election victory lasted for over a year.  Part of that is because the DPJ was still imploding throughout 2013.  This time around while CDP does not seems to be a party that can oust LDP like DPJ looked like in the 2003-2009 period it is at least seen as credible within the Center-Left voting bloc so Suga's honeymoon was clearly not going to last.  Suga should have gone for an election in Nov or Dec 2020 but I guess with COVID-19 that is not an option.  I gut feeling is the 2021 Loser House election will see LDP-KP keep their majority but will lose seats and lose the LDP-KP 2/3 majority they had held since 2012.

[jaichind]

It seems that LDP MP in the 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district will likely be removed as an MP if he is found guilty in a vote buying case involving him buying votes for his wife who was the LDP candidate in the 2019 広島(Hiroshima) Upper House elections.

If so there will be an by-election.  It seems that in this likely by-election something that might take place for the first time since the 1990s: the LDP and KP will run a candidate against each other.  KP has come in to claim this seat and announce that it will run a candidate in the by-election.  The local LDP chapter reject such KP claims and insist on running its on candidates.  If the by-election takes place for now it seems it will be LDP vs KP vs CDP vs PNHK.

LDP and KP are working frantically to come up with a common LDP-KP candidate but it seems neither side (the local LDP and local KP branches) are willing to compromise.  If CDP is able to get DPP RS and JCP to continue to step aside then in such a by-election I suspect the CDP will have the upper hand.  We also saw in the 2017 Tokyo Prefecture elections what happens to the LDP without KP support.  The same could happen in this by-election if it takes place.

[jaichind]

Latest 毎日(Mainichi) poll has Suga cabinet approval/disapproval at 40(-17)/49(+13) which large swing against Suga since Nov.

By age it is

18～29：45/39
30～39：49/40
40～49：47/42
50～59：38/54
60～69：35/54
70+    ：31/55

Disapproval rising with age showing it is recent COVID-19 surge that is killing Suga's approval rating in this poll

[jaichind]

Apparently Suga’s ‘Go to Travel’ policy has taken a lot of flack and now there’s talk of him being replaced by September 2021. The cycle begins again?

There is going to be a LDP Prez election in Sept 2021 no matter what as Suga merely was elected to serve out Abe's most recent 3 year term (2018-2021).  The assumption before when he took over was that a general election will take place BEFORE Sept 2021 where LDP will win and Suga will be easily re-elected as LDP Prez in Sept 2021.  Now with the general election perhaps taking place in Oct 2021 there now a chance if Suga's poll numbers do not start going up he will be defeated for re-election in Sept 2021 LDP Prez election so a new popular leader and lead LDP to victory in the general election.

Also there are signs that Abe and his gang are getting concerned that Suga is pushing hard on the Abe agenda and not seen as decisive by the LDP grassroots and the public.  Perhaps this might be a re-run of Thatcher-Major.

[jaichind]

The Chinese language media rumor mill are also saying that Abe's medical condition and recovery is going much better than expected and that Abe is most likely kicking himself for stepping down a few months ago. With Suga waffling on the Abe agenda and are adding more scandals on his own like

(Steak dinner lands Japan’s Suga in hot water for flouting virus rules) (perhaps Suga is a honorary member of the USA Democratic party since this just mimics several USA Democratic mayors lockdown hypocrisy issues)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-suga-dinner-masks/2020/12/16/65461082-3f5e-11eb-b58b-1623f6267960_story.html

and not being able to come off as a strong leader there are talks that Abe and his gang might start getting more involved to "handle the situation for Suga"

If true then this merely means that Suga will be more frozen from making any decisions since he now has to always check what Abe and gang are up to.  Suga not having his own faction which helped him so much in the LDP Prez election a few months back now is going to hurt him since he has no one to fall back on within the LDP to speak out for him as Abe and gang try to capture from Suga.

So Suga went from being the puppet master of Abe to being the puppet of the new puppet master Abe if these rumors are true.

[jaichind]

TV Asahi reports that  Tokyo prosecutors questioned former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday or earlier over the expenses of dinner parties his political group held for his supporters.

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/12/e2fac3eac625-ex-pm-abe-says-to-address-dinner-function-allegations-in-parliament.html

Kyodo says that LDP might convene a special session of the Diet for Abe to address the Diet to give his side of the story.

[jaichind]

2 media New Year projections on Lower House elections

週刊ポスト (News PostSeven) Projection has LDP losing a bunch of seats to a bare majority



         District     PR      Total
LDP      176       66        242
KP           7        21         28
JRP          8        13         21
DPP         5         5          10
CDP       83        54       137
RS           0          1          1
SDP         1          0          1
JCP          1        16        17
OPPN       8          0         8
--------------------------------------
           289       176     465

KP at 7 district seats means they lose one of their district seats most likely either in 北海道(Hokkaido) or 神奈川(Kanagawa)


While 毎日(Mainichi) has much more limited LDP losses


        District     PR      Total
LDP      203       69        272
KP           8        23         31
JRP          6       14          20
DPP         5         7          12
CDP       58       49        107
RS           0         1           1
SDP         1         0           1
JCP          1       13         14
OPPN       7         0          7
--------------------------------------
           289       176     465

It is interesting that both projections has RS losing a lot of its novelty shine from the 2019 Upper House elections with most of their vote flowing back to CDP.  I suspect in a real snap election, it it was possible, the result will be somewhere in between these two projections.

It is clear that that LDP will lose seats and LDP-KP will lose their 2/3 majority.  Question now is can LDP-KP + JRP get a 2/3 majority in case of another push for Constitutional change.

[jaichind]

www.bloombergquint.com/amp/politics/japan-virus-surge-makes-suga-more-look-like-short-term-premier

Bloomberg article saying that with Suga ratings melting down the LDP might turn back to Abe as leader later this year. 

[jaichind]

Would the shuffle not cause anger among the pro-Suga LDP? Did Abe heal from his ailments so fast?

It seems that Abe's medical condition and recovery took a turn for the better since he stepped down so there were rumors that he was looking to return from the backbenches anyway.  Also there are no pro-Suga MPs that are not pro-Abe MPs.

If it ends up being Abe again in the Sept 2021 LDP Prez race then this entire episode could have been a deep game 3-D chess that Abe was playing.  In Aug 2020 Abe was facing

a) COVID-19 resurgence and likely cancelation of Tokyo Olympics
b) Public and LDP resistance to him running for a 4th term as LDP Prez in Sept 2021.

So he steps down to have Suga take over who will take the hits for COVID-19 resurgence and cancellation of the Tokyo Olympics.  Then Abe can come back in Sept 2021 as LDP Prez and lead the LDP and Japan PM for another 6 years.

At this stage it still seems far screeched.  I still say if Suga is forced to step down in Sept 2021 it is more likely someone like 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) will take over than Abe.

[jaichind]

Are the Tokyo Olympics looking likely to be cancelled?

I do not see any way around it.  No one is willing to say it because no one wants the blame for acknowledging that throwing billons down the toilet.  I personally have always been for herd immunity to deal with COVID-19 so I for one will for having the Olympics go on.  But given the risk profile of the Japanese as a whole do see no other way out.