New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[jaichind]

NH SOS on expected turnout today:

Per WCVB --

After initially predicting a turnout of more than 500,000 percent, he has since announced an official prediction of 420,000 voters. That includes 292,000 Democratic ballots and 128,000 Republican ballots.

Dem at 292K is a bit higher than the 2016 GOP primary vote of around 286K and a lot higher than the 2016 Dem primary vote of 253K.  GOP turnout of 128K is way higher than the 60K in the 2012 Dem primary.

[jaichind]

If Klobuchar did very well then most likely Biden will end up 5th.  What a disaster. 

[jaichind]

klobuchar being a spoiler for buttigieg is the best scenario for bernie

It also might halt the surge toward Bloomberg.

[jaichind]

If Biden does flame out, it's going to remind me a lot of another candidate who seemed the obvious front-runner beforehand, but never took off: Rudy Giuliani in 2008.

(And I supported both of them.  Was it something I said?)

I remember in late 2007 the main GOP enemy of those Obama girl videos was Giuliani as it was assumed that  Giuliani  was going to be the GOP candidate.

[jaichind]

So, only 3 candidates will get delegates ?

Assuming the 2 CD results are similar to the overall results

[jaichind]

Sanders which was dropping at bit in betting markets as results came out is now surging upward

[jaichind]

Seems Klobuchar is cutting into both the Buttigieg and Biden vote

[jaichind]

Bloomberg and Trump have got to be loving this. A muddled primary.

McCain had the nomination wrapped up 4 months before Obama did.

2008 was going to be a disastrous election for the GOP.  The Obama-Clinton prolonged battle for certain main the scale of the Dem victory a lot smaller than it could have been.

[jaichind]

This must be Bloomberg right now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAf0QnLFS7Q

[jaichind]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

[jaichind]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

You have a link to that?  Maybe those who voted Bernie in 2016 and were voting for someone else this time didn't want to admit they voted Bernie in 2016.  Very unlikely that they stayed home.

Look at  https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/new-hampshire under exit polls tab

[jaichind]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

You have a link to that?  Maybe those who voted Bernie in 2016 and were voting for someone else this time didn't want to admit they voted Bernie in 2016.  Very unlikely that they stayed home.

Exit polls showed the exact same thing in Iowa. A lot of 2016 Bernie voters have left the party entirely.

There is a big difference.  In 2016 Sanders and Clinton mostly likely evenly split the popular vote while in 2016 NH it was 60-38.  In 2020 IA Dem caucus entrance polls it was for 2016 caucus vote (Clinton 54 Sanders 31 neither 15).  2020 NH Dem exit poll with  (Clinton 50,Sanders 30, Neither 18) seems much more negative for Sanders in terms of non-appearance of the 2016 NH Sanders vote.

[jaichind]

NH Dem primary exit polls showed 2016 Dem primary vote was (Clinton 50%,Sanders 30%, Neither 18%).  I get the fact that Clinton ultimately winning the 2016 Dem nomination would bias these results but Sanders blew out Clinton in 2016 60-38. What happen to the Sanders 2016 NH base ?  It seems a bunch of them did not even bother coming out to vote in the Dem primary. 

Considering that 2016 had only two candidates who received more than 1,000 votes in the NH primary and 2020 had nine of them, it's safe to assume that a lot of Bernie's 2016 support went to other candidates like Warren, Tulsi, Yang, and probably even some of the "moderates". Just because you cast a vote for Bernie doesn't mean you're a stereotypical "Berniebro". Back in 2016, Bernie was effectively the only candidate you could vote for if you didn't like Hillary. Nowadays, you have at least a handful of candidates to vote for if you don't like Biden.

I am not talking about 2016 Sanders vote defecting. I get that clearly took place. What I am talking about are the people that showed up for the 2020 Dem NH primary seems to be missing a lot of 2016 NH primary Sanders voters that did not even show up.