Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[jaichind]

What does Netanyahu expect to change in this next election ? I assume he is thinking that there might be a majority for Likud + Religious parties + United Right ?  What if New Right gets in this time? Will they join a Netanyahu government? Is so I can see the  Netanyahu  strategy working.

[jaichind]

I have to imagine Netanyahu's election strategy would be: A vote for YB is a vote for B&W which is a vote for Labor which is a vote for the Arabs.  And to counter this  Lieberman has to counterattack by ramping up his majoritarian appeal.

[jaichind]

Will Gesher  run in the Sept election ?

[jaichind]

Apparently Meretz is considering uniting with Hadash-Taal. I think it's a great idea, but frankly I think Meretz-Labor and an Arab Joint List running separately would net more mandates than Labor and Ram-Balaad running separately and Meretz running with Hadash-Taal. I have no clue how the Arab public would react to such a union, either, but I wonder if it would actually backfire.

The Hadash part I get, but is not Ta'al an Arab nationalist party? If so why would Meretz  view Ta'al any differently from, say, United Right?

[jaichind]

How many parties that is going to unite all anti-Netanyahu do you actually need ?  An would this not make Labor go below the threshold ?

[jaichind]

So Otzma Yehudit has left the United Right? Will they run their own list and most likely pull both of them below the threshold ?

[jaichind]

Does not the formation of Democratic Camp make it more likely that Labor will fall below the threshold?

[jaichind]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

[jaichind]

YB excludes possibility of entering a government with Joint List, Democratic Union, Shas, UTJ and URP. As Likud and BW risk going below 60 seats, Lieberman truly seems the smartest player of the game this time. He would be kingmaker.

But does he rule out Netanyahu as PM as long as the religous parties are out?

[jaichind]

Some recent polls seems to indicate that Democratic Union is eating into the B&W vote

But the bloc math is the same. It is still roughly 50/50 between right and left with Liberman being decisive. I don't think he would necessary oppose a Netanyahu-led unity government, so long as the religious parties were sidelined, but a Gantz-led  unity government seems the more logical outcome if only because a lot of people left and right are ready to dump Bibi and his legal baggage.

Yes yet I think the dynamics government formation would be different if B&W were to come ahead of Likud versus the other way around.  If  Democratic Union continues to eat into B&W that should increase the chances of a Likud and even Netanyahu government.

[jaichind]

Will there be a last minute Netanyahu appeal for Right wing turnout at the end of the voting day saying that Arabs are turning out in droves or is that one outlived its usefulness.

[jaichind]

Obviously what Netanyahu needs is for the non-YB Right to win a majority.  How important is it also for Likud to be ahead of B&W for Netanyahu to win?  Namely if B&W wins more seats than Likud is there not a risk that B&W will be given the first shot at forming a government and B&W could break Likud have having an anti-Netanyahu faction of Likud to defect to B&W ?

[jaichind]

Obviously what Netanyahu needs is for the non-YB Right to win a majority.  How important is it also for Likud to be ahead of B&W for Netanyahu to win?  Namely if B&W wins more seats than Likud is there not a risk that B&W will be given the first shot at forming a government and B&W could break Likud have having an anti-Netanyahu faction of Likud to defect to B&W ?

if right religious lacks a majority and YB comes out soon to remain committed to their Grand coalition platform, then there will be 61+ seats controlled by parties recommending Gantz. That said if likud has a decent lead, likely 3+ seats, then they still might get the first crack at extending an olive branch.

Then there is the way outside chance  that the Saudi sh**t gets more serious, and a temporary full-knesset unity govt is formed.

It seems that the the dual goals of a non-YB Right majority and Likud beating B&W by a good margin might be contradictory since it will require careful micromanagement iof the Otzma Yehudit vote share.  A Otzma Yehudit that is too strong or too weak might wreck one of those goals.  It will be impressive if  Netanyahu  pulls it off.

[jaichind]

channel 12: hung parliament

Wait, it is not 10PM yet.  How can they do this ?

[jaichind]

Channel 11 exit poll. Likud and B&W tied

[jaichind]

Channel 13 exit poll Likud behind B&W

[jaichind]

Channel 11 exit poll Likud bloc 56 seats.  Not clear if that includes Otzma Yehudit

[jaichind]

Channel 12 exit poll also Likud behind B&W

[jaichind]

KAN 11:

Likud: 32
B&W: 32
Joint List: 12
YB: 10
Shas: 9
UTJ: 8
Yamina; 7
Labour: 5
Dem Union: 5
Otzma: 0

Can't get more hung then that
56 - 54  - 10 Bibi - Gantz - Leib

Well if Otzma Yehudit is at 0 then Netanyahu is in trouble

[jaichind]

B&W biggest party, no overall majority

But did not B&W under-perform exit polls back in April.  I would read any B&W tied with Likud as a Likud lead

[jaichind]

If these exit polls hold then it is not clear who will win but it is clear that Netanyahu most likely lost

[jaichind]

At this stage Netanyahu has to hope BOTH Likud and Otzma Yehudit are underestimated in exit polls which is possible but rather difficult.

[jaichind]

Is this the right link to results ?

https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Nothing is there yet.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg News reports that: Central Elections Committee spokesman Giora Pordes doesn't expect to begin releasing official results until at least five hours from now at 4 a.m. local time (9 p.m. in New York).

Arrr ...  Hopefully they mean official certified results and not partial counts 

[jaichind]

Is this the right link to results ?

https://votes22.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults

Nothing is there yet.

Some results now