2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

[jaichind]

NDA    321(-31)
UPA    110(+45)
OTH    111(-14)

[jaichind]

WB seat count now has AITC 23 BJP 15 INC 3 so BJP is falling which is what I said would take place based on my reading of the vote share count coming in.  Still a massive BJP surge.

[jaichind]

UP vote share

BJP              50.8%
SP-BSP-RLD 38.4%
INC               5.8%

[jaichind]

Punjab vote share

INC         40.0%
SAD-BJP  37.4%
AAP          7.2%

Well at least bjp is trailing in my ancestral homeland, so that feels a tad better, but expected.

One of the few states I actually got the seats and vote count roughly correct (so far)

I am keeping an eye on Jalandhar constituency, which is where my family is originally from, any guesses on it?

My model has a easy INC win there for what it is worth

[jaichind]

Bihar Vote share

BJP-JD(U)-LJP        55.0%
RJD-INC-HAM-VIP   23.2% (does not include HAM and VIP which are too small in ECI breakout so I suspect it is something like 26% overall)

[jaichind]

Delhi vote share

BJP  57.6%
INC  20.5%
AAP  19.2%

If this holds even a INC-AAP alliance would not have worked and would have been a repeat of the Karnataka fiasco

[jaichind]

Based on these trends I think the Karnataka JD(S)-INC and TN AIADMK governments will fall pretty soon.  MP INC government could be in trouble as well.

[jaichind]

INC keeps on talking about BJP media campaign as the cause of victory.  They are not confronting the main problem which is that in a national election they had nothing to counter Modi with.

[jaichind]

Haryana vote share

BJP  57.3%
INC  28.0%
INLD 2.1% !!!!

INLD base completely gone and have gone over to BJP.

[jaichind]

AP vote share (YSRCP sweep)

YSRCP   49.8%
TDP       39.0%
INC        1.3%
BJP        0.8%

[jaichind]

Telangana vote share

TRS     42.0%
INC     29.0%
BJP     19.1%
AIMIM  2.6%

Not as big of a TRS victory as expected. Still a solid TRS victory can be expected.

[jaichind]

Telangana has TRS 11 BJP 5 INC 1.  No way BJP has 5 seats.  This will go down and go to TRS as more votes comes in.

[jaichind]

NDA    326(-26)
UPA    105(+40)
OTH    111(-14)

[jaichind]

Wouldn’t u say this is more like UK 1983 than US 1936


In 1936 the Dems were dominant in every part of the nation while in the UK the Thatcher landslide was based on sweeping wins in England even though they got wiped out in Scotland

I use 1936 because 1932 FDR won mostly won based on anti-incumbency.  His 1936 reelection was based on a large realignment to produce a pro-incumbent surge.  UK 1983 is more about the LAB and LIB-SDP split.  Here even if INC did a better job with alliances the result would be the same, in retrospect. 

[jaichind]

At this rate INC would be lucky to cross 60 seats.

[jaichind]

WB vote share is now

AITC  45.1%
BJP    38.9%
Left     6.9%
INC     5.4%

BJP most likely will start to lose ground in terms of seat count here if this vote share sustains itself.

[jaichind]

MP seat count now BJP 23 INC 6 so INC is losing ground like I expected given the ECI reported vote share.  I think INC will end up losing all its seats here as counting goes on.

[jaichind]

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

[jaichind]

SENSEX up 2.2%

[jaichind]

Not many votes are on ECI for Odisha but the vote share so far are

BJD                      42.7%
BJP                      36.9%
INC-JMM-CPM-CPI 15.3%

It seems BJD has survived the storm

[jaichind]

TN vote share

DMK-INC bloc        52.6%
AIADMK-BJP bloc   30.1%

[jaichind]

After this landslide I wonder if the BJP will get going on building that Ram temple in Ayodhya

Ayodhya is the home of Ram, so it makes sense for a temple of Ram to be there. Im surprised there isnt one already there


Fun Fact: Ram is my favorite avatar of Vishnu  not Krishna like most people

Well, I think the BJP is not moving on that because they want the issue more than the temple.  Of course their grassroots want the temple more than the issue.

[jaichind]

In Assam's Kokrajhar, ex-INC ally UPP(L) is ahead and the ex-ULFA incumbent is running second.  BJP ally BPF surprising is running third. 

[jaichind]

Uttarakhand vote share

BJP   60.7%
INC   31.7%
BSP    4.5%