2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019

[jaichind]

If these regional breakdown of the exit polls are right then Modi should be given a lot of credit to pulling BJP across the finishing line.  In a lot of core Hindi states the trend of state anti-incumbency cycle was against BJP but it seems the Modi factor pulled BJP through.   In other areas the result seems to be more inline with pre-election trends with a slight pro-NDA tilt.  The BJP surge in WB and Odisha shows that Modi has turned the BJP from a Hindu Hindi party to a Hindu Indo-Aryan party.  If so then we are potentially in another era where the BJP becomes the natural party of governance and the INC route to power again is much more difficult. 

[jaichind]

News18 exit poll has NDA 336 UPA 82 OTH 127

[jaichind]

Current NDTV poll of polls

Total: NDA 298 UPA 124 OTH 120 (out of 542)

AP: YSRCP 15 TDP 10
Assam: NDA 9 INC 3 OTH 2 (I assume AIUDF)
Bihar: NDA 32 UPA 8
Chhattisgarh: BJP 6 INC 5
Delhi: BJP 6 INC 1
Gujarat: BJP 23 INC 3
Haryana: BJP 8 INC 2
Jharkhand: NDA 9 UPA 5
MP: BJP 24 INC 5
Maharastra: NDA 36 UPA 11 OTH 1 (I assume AIMIM)
Odisha: BJP 11 BJD 10
Rajasthan: BJP 22 INC 3
TN: UPA 27 NDA 10 OTH 1 (I assume AMMK)
UP: NDA 50 SP-BSP-RLD 28 INC 2
Karnataka: NDA 19 UPA 9
Kerala: UPA 14 Left 4 BJP 1 (does not add up to 20)
Punjab: INC 8 NDA 4 AAP 1
Telengana: TRS 12 INC 1 BJP 1 (does not add up to 17, I assume AIMIM 1)
WB: AITC 26 BJP 14 INC 2

[jaichind]

Some of the later exit polls are showing massive NDA landslides

India Today-My Axis has NDA 339-365 UPA 77-108  OTH 69-95


Chanakya-News24 has NDA 350 UPA 95 OTH 97


So that makes 4 exit polls with NDA way above 300 (other two are VDP and News18).

[jaichind]

ABP Nielson
NDA 267 (BJP 218)
UPA 127 (Congress 81)
Others 148

ABP Nielson adjusted their exit poll to

NDA 277 UPA 130 OTH 135


 

[jaichind]

My own average of all exit polls has it at NDA 306 UPA 120.  If we take out News24-Today's Chanakya and VDP both of whom have historical pro-BJP biases, then the average is NDA 300 UPA 123.  If so then the trend is clear that it would be a significant NDA victory.

My gut feeling is still that the real results will be in the lower range of the exit polls for NDA.  I have to dig into state by state projections and vote share to be sure  though.  Couple of reasons

1) It seems vote share wise everyone seem to agree that the NDA vote share lead over UPA are in the 6%-11% range.  My own model seem to show that a vote share lead for NDA of 9% does not lead to a massive majority.
2) I suspect there are still a bunch of pro-incumbent biases in these exit polls.  These biases underestimated BJP in 2014 and most likely overestimate BJP in 2019

Still one way ore another it is clear that it will be a Modi led goverment with anywhere from a slim to massive majority for NDA.

[jaichind]

VDP UP exit poll by community




If true then the BJP won by winning the battle of non-Jatav Dalit (partly) and really winning the battle for non-Yadav OBC while keeping the Upper Caste from defecting to INC.

[jaichind]

Latest NDTV poll of polls

[jaichind]

I found out the ECI ban on exit polls in media outlets until 6:30pm when voting ended for the 7th and last phase is also true for astrologers and tarot card readers whose projections are not allowed to be broadcast on media.

[jaichind]

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

Correct.  I always felt that places like MP, Rajasthan, HP, Haryana, and Gujarat will be highly correlated with each other.  Now we now that they likely broke for BJP although I think the exit polls overestimate it.   It was always UP that was going to be different but it was not clear how with many different surveys on the ground giving very different projections on the ground.  Ergo my obsession with UP throughout the campaign.  That BJP is doing so well in places like Jharkand and Chhattisgarh is a big surprise to me.  It seems the tribals vote overlooked local issues to vote for a strong national security PM.  The Dalit vote did seem to shift away from BJP but was not enough to stop the BJP given the BJP strong performance with Upper Castes and OBCs.

[jaichind]

These exit polls have a bunch of bugs in them.   I found a bunch but this one is the best

TimesNow poll has AAP winning 2.9% of the vote in Uttarakhand even though AAP are not running any candidates this time

[jaichind]

Local UP base Hindi channel National Voice went seat by seat and came up with

SP-BSP-RLD   49
NDA               27
INC                 4
https://twitter.com/i/status/1130171916088512513

which actually matches big data Anthro AI
https://anthro.ai/indianelections/notes/uttar-pradesh-2019-projection-seven-phases-144-million-voters-key-issues-one-ballot/

Projection of

SP-BSP-RLD   54
NDA               21
INC                 4
PSP(L)             1 (SP splinter)



Both projection had the same shock victory of INC to win Kanpur

[jaichind]

Great news but I don’t really trust exit polls


Also are you going to have a separate thread when the actual results come out

This thread is comparatively tiny when paired with other threads on this board.

Agreed.  No reason to have a separate thread.  Besides I want to use this thread for the assembly elections later in 2019

[jaichind]

VDP poll breakout by community





That NDA beat UPA among the tribal vote explains the  Jharkand and Chhattisgarh results

[jaichind]

Looking over the exit poll national vote shares where they give it is interesting.   In my model I computed vote share for each significant contestant in each seat and then take into account increase in total votes per district to derive a national vote share.  Clearly I will change them based on a deep dive of each exit poll and state level results where they give it.  But comparing my pre-exit poll projection by seats and vote share is interesting.

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%??               93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122

So other than Axis My India (which did not give a UPA vote share but I estimate it to be around 27%) the rest of us seems to roughly agree on vote share but deviate dramatically on seat distribution.  I guess we will find out counting night.

[jaichind]

The largest source of variation appears to be UP, not the tribals, which look to have broke for Modi. The NDAs majority on it's own might depend on it.

BTW, the Minimum seat projection for UP (22) has been adjusted to 33 by ABP News-Nielsen for NDA.  So the variation is smaller than it would appear.  Still as I pointed out a local UP Hindi news channel has NDA at 27 so the variation still quite large.  I also suspect this "adjustment" is really just another variation of herding.

[jaichind]

After the exit polls came out the Rajasthan bookies has BJP at 270-290 and NDA at around 305.

https://www.mynation.com/politics/satta-bazar-sees-pm-modi-coming-back-in-2019-lok-sabha-polls-gives-bjp-nearly-300-seats-prqzjb

[jaichind]

Another TimesNow exit poll bug for Federal city of Chandigarh

BJP winning the seat despite having a lower vote share than INC

[jaichind]

C-voter exit poll detailed state level vote share



I can update my chart of exit poll vote shares

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%??               93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128

C-voter vote share and seat share more consistent with my model

[jaichind]

Some Odisha local media exit polls

Sambad/Kanak news:

Assembly- 146/147
BJD- 85-95
BJP - 25-34
Cong - 12-15

Loksabha: 21/21
BJD 6-9
BJP 8-12
Cong - 0-1


Pragaativadi Odia daily survey
Assembly:146/147
BJD- 104
BJP: 26
Cong- 15
Cpim-1

Loksabha: 21/21
BJD - 15
BJP - 5
Cong - 1

Both seems to more positive on INC than national polls to the point where both seem to indicate INC could win a LS seats.  Clear split in the assembly and LS voting with BJD doing better than assembly election and BJP doing relatively better in LS election.

[jaichind]

SENSEX up monday by 3.75% on prospect of a stable Modi government after elections.

[jaichind]

One thing that strikes me about these exit polls are a comparison to 2017 UP assembly elections with respect to how opposition parties are acting.  After the 2017 UP assembly exit polls came out and in fact right before it, SP and INC came out attacking and blaming the other side for a likely defeat.  And that is when not all UP assembly exit polls showed a BJP majority as some actually showed BJP falling a bit short.  This time around most exit polls shows BJP winning UP  LS elections although some show the BJP down at 33 out of 80.  SP and BSP leadership seems fairly silent and went about their ways with each other and also with meetings with INC and other regional parties on post-election strategy.  It seems the difference here are the ground reports in 2017 seems to confirm the worst of the exit polls while ground reports from SP and BSP cadres does not seem to confirm the worst case exit poll scenario in UP.  Off the record comments from INC leaders are that the exit polls do not match their understanding of their ground reports but they are worried that so many have a BJP landslide. 

The betting markets seems to partly discount the exit polls with a BJP majority and instead project BJP at around 240 and INC around 80
https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/satta-bazaar-also-roots-for-a-modi-comeback-1529168-2019-05-20


I suspect the main reasons is a lot of local non-English media did their exit polls more based around ground reports all seem to give the BJP the edge in many battleground states but not the the degree  expressed in some of the exit reports.  In Karnataka the local BJP expressed shock at exit reports showing BJP with 20+ seats out of 28 when their own assessment is that of BJP at 18-19 at most.

[jaichind]

Confirmed that Axis MyIndia exit poll had UPA vote share to be 27% (which was my guess anyway given NDA vote share is 45% and the seat projections)



Updated chart of exit poll vote shares

I can update my chart of exit poll vote shares and seats

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128

[jaichind]

It seems News18-IPSOS vote share is NDA 48.5% UPA 25%.  So my chart of exit poll with national vote share are

                            NDA Vote share   NDA seats     UPA Vote share   UPA seats
Me                             39.3%             256                   31.3%              154
News Nation               38%                286                   30%                 122
C-Voter                      42.3%             287                    29.6%              128
TimesNow                  41.1%             306                    31.7%              132
VDP                           39%                333                   33%                 115
News18-IPSOS            48.5%             350                   25%                  95
Axis My India              45%                352                   27%                  93

It seems VDP is really out of line with everyone else.

[jaichind]

What are your projections for Bihar

Still working on adjusting my model based on exit poll results.   I currently have it at NDA 28 UPA 12 and most likely that will not change.