Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

http://www.asahi.com/politics/yoron/

Has the Ashai cabinet approval with history with breakdown by gender and age.

Abe Cabinet approval in April is 31%.  But the approval level among women is 23% which matches women approval of the DPJ Noda cabinet right before the landslide defeat of DPJ in 2012.   Abe Cabinet approval among men is 40% which is not that great but only somewhat below 2015 levels for Abe Cabinet.

Abe Cabinet approvals for 60-69 and 70+ are around levels of support for these age groups for the DPJ Noda cabinet back in late 2012.  Abe Cabinet approval for the 40-49 and 50-59 are low but around the same as the lows in Summer of 2015 and Summer of 2017.   Abe cabinet approval for 20-29 and 30-39 a bit on the low side but not that different from other levels achieved in for the Abe Cabinet.

So the Abe Cabinet approval fall is concentrated among women and the elderly and much more contained in other demographics. 

[jaichind]

It seems the DP-HP merge will create a party not called DPJ but 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) or I guess NPP (for now as there is no official English name yet.)  The new party simplified name will be called 國民 just like DP had the simplified name 民進.  What i funny is that these two names matches the two main ROC parties (long time ruling party (and my part) 國民黨 and now ruling party 民進黨.)

A bunch of Right wing MPs of HP will not join and will form their own niche Right wing opposition party while a bunch of Left wing MPs of DP will not join and will most likely end up in DCP if DCP would take them.

[jaichind]

Here we go again.  It seems yesterday 森山 裕(Moriyama Hiroshi) chairman of LDP Diet Affairs Committee indicated that a snap election should not be ruled out if the opposition insist on calling a vote of no confidence over Abe scandals.  Abe came out to deny this as a possibility.   

[jaichind]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

I doubt it.  I think even if an election is called now the LDP-KP will still win but with a reduced majority.  Abe was not that popular back in Oct 2017 but still LDP-KP barely made it to 2/3 majority.  For now there are not just not enough CDP and NPP quality candidates to overcome LDP in the various marginal seats.
If an election is called today I think it would be

LDP    240
KP       30
JRP      15
CDP     90
NPP      50  (HP-DP fusion)
JCP      16
SDP      2
LP         2
Others 20 (various ex-DP ind., LDP rebels, Right ex-HP ind etc etc)

[jaichind]

If things stay like this, the opposition could be in one of the best positions it's ever been in to defeat the LDP imo.

Which is exactly why Abe called the election early. He has another five years to bounce back from this and as soon as his approvals are high he'll immediately call another snap election.

The LDP leadership election happens in September. Japan will have a new PM after that election, it's almost certain right now.

Not so sure about that.  It Abe's approval numbers stabilize around current levels then he is a 50/50 show to win in Sept 2018.  If it gets worse he might be out in June.  So what the Abe Cabinet approval numbers look like between now and the summer would be critical.

[jaichind]

I wonder what the Aoki index would look lile right now.

Looking at Abe cabinet support and party support curve




It is around 69.  Not good but not catastrophic.  Back in Summer 2017 it was as low as 65.  Main reason why it holding up is because LDP support has mostly held up amid opposition chaos. 

[jaichind]

In 2017 elections LDP-KP PR vote was 45.8% while the sum of HP CDP SDP and JCP is 46.8% which are very similar.  So a map of LDP-KP vs HP-CDP-SDP-JCP is fairly close to a Japan version of PVI map.  Red is ruling bloc leads (LDP-KP) and Blue is opposition leads (HP-CDP-SDP-JCP)


edit: fixed typo

[jaichind]

You got the colors the wrong way around I think, I would have assumed that red was LDP-KP on that map, also how it says ruling party under the red scale.

Yes. typo ... will fix

[jaichind]

Aoki index based on different pollsters.  Ranges from 59 to 74.  Not very good but not catastrophic 

[jaichind]

HP-DP merger party 國民民主黨 (National Democratic Party) (NDP) (not sure this is the official English name of the party) kicks off

[jaichind]

So the official English name of the new DP-HP merged party  國民民主黨 will be Democratic Party of the People (DPFP) and not National Democratic Party which would be a straight translation of the name.  It seems there was a fear that the party would be seen as Right wing if it used the National in its name when its approach would be Centrist with a slight Left lean.  The Hawk Right bloc within HP from the old DP Far Right and PJK will most likely form a rump HP so HP will continue.

So net net relative to 2017, DP split into 3 blocs.  The Left became DCP, Center became DPFP, and the small Hawk Right merged with various PJK and other ex-YP Far Right sections to become a Hawk Right Third Pole HP.

[jaichind]

What’s the deal with that pose?

The are standard at Japanese pep rallies.  Here is 蓮舫(Renho) at the rally where she took over DP leadership in Sept 2016.

 

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo shows has Abe Cabinet approval at 38.9 (+1.9) and



The new DPFP support not shooting up.  Party support has it at

自民(LDP)          37.1（+0.3）
立憲民主(CDP) 　13.3（+1.4）
共産(JCP)   　　　4.5（-0.6）
公明(KP)    　　　3.7（+0.5）
維新(JRP)   　　　1.5（-1.5）
国民民主(DPFP) 　1.1 (new）
社民(SDP)  　　　0.8（-0.4）
自由(LP)    　　　0.7（+0.5）
希望(HP)   　　　0.7（-1.0） (Hardliner Hawk right faction of HP will continue as HP)

It seems the DP-HP merger mostly benefited CDP with DPFP not getting too much support so far.

[jaichind]

Abe approval rating curve comes back.  He is safe for now.  Sept 2018 LDP race still up in the air but you have to give Abe reasonably good chance of winning that too.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election this weekend.  In 2016 the opposition pulled off an upset win over LDP 52-46 over the nuclear issue.  The pro-opposition governor had to resign over a sex scandal.  Just like 2018 it will be a showdown between a pro-LDP candidate and an united opposition candidate (backed by CDP SDP LP JCP and the newly formed DPP.)  The all polling shows the race neck-to-neck.  There is another pro-opposition candidate in the mix but he is expected to get very few if any votes.

It seems the DP-HP merger party which is 国民民主党 decided to call itself Democratic Party For the People or DPP.

[jaichind]

Abe's approval curve still pretty much flat which means he is not out of danger for Sept 2018 LDP Prez race but he will not be booted out earlier then that.  Abe now needs another DPRK crisis to push up his ratings to the high 40s from high 30s.

[jaichind]

What party is Ozawa and his crew in at the moment?

Still LP.  Ozawa and gang ran as pro-HP independents in 2017 but then just reverted to LP afterwards when it was clear HP did not take off.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election vote in progress.  This will be a test of if the non-JRP but inclusive of JCP united opposition can defeat LDP 1-on-1 in a swing prefecture.  If the united opposition wins then it shows that it can pull off a similar feat in 2019 as the 2016 Upper House single district seats races.  Given that JRP is in decline in (大阪)Osaka and (兵庫)Hyōgo then it is unlikely the non-JRP will be shut out of these prefectures. So this means that LDP-KP plus JRP will do worse in 2019 than in 2016.  If so then LDP only has a year left before the pro-Constitutional revisionist 2/3 majority in the Upper House is removed. 

[jaichind]

With DP-HP merger into DPP a rump HP continues on as a Far Right Hawk party.  In fact most of the HP parliamentary caucus all were members of Far Right Hawk party of PFG of 2014-2016.  Main problem with this party is that 3 out of 5 MPs it has were elected in 2013 Upper House elections (as members of YP or JRP) and all 3 are unlikely to be elected as there seems very little prospect of this party crossing 2% to get PR seats especially with PJK still hanging around to split the Far Right Hawk vote.  So after 2019 this party will most likely decline into irreverence.

[jaichind]

One funny fact about the 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is that the LDP planned to deploy popular LDP MP Koizumi Junior to campaign for the pro-LDP candidate.  But then LDP ex-PM Koizumi Senior who is well known to be hostile to Abe as well as taken up the banner of anti-nuclear power and against position of the LDP have voiced support for the united opposition candidate.  To avoid pitting Koizumi Junior against his own father LDP scrapped plans to deploy Koizumi Junior in the election campaign.

[jaichind]

All signs are that turnout for 新潟(Niigata) governor by-election is higher than 2018.  If so that is a ominous sign for LDP. 

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor by-election voting over.  Exit polls show neck-to-neck race with a tiny advantage for pro-LDP candidate (mostly by using eyeball observation of the chart)

[jaichind]

Rural village 関川村 done.  pro-LDP 59% United Opposition 38%.  Back in 2016 it was pro-LDP 54.9% United Opposition 42.7%.  It seems the rural vote is swinging toward LDP.  Unless there is a swing in urban area away from LDP then LDP chances of winning seem pretty good.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll



LDP voters (red) (37% of voters) and KP voters (pink) (3% of voters) mostly pro-LDP.
CDP voters (light blue) (13% of voters) and DPP voters (Dark blue) (2% of voters) mostly united opposition
JCP(purple) LP (light green) SDP(dark green) also for united opposition
Non-Aligned(35% of votes) breaking for united opposition.


A lot KP voters in there exist polls claims to be LDP voters due to social stigma.  A lot of Non-Aligned voters are hidden pro-opposition (including pro-JCP) voters.

[jaichind]

Another rural village 弥彦村 done:  United opposition 48.4% pro-LDP 47.5%.  Back in 2016 it was   United opposition 55.5% pro-LDP 41.9%.  Another swing toward LDP.