Japan Oct 22 2017

[jaichind]

This election is turning into 47 separate elections at the prefecture level versus one national election with totally different trends in different prefectures.

In Tokyo and 神奈川(Kanagawa) DP is completely falling apart with mass defections to the Koike Party.  In both prefectures it seems it will be LDP vs Kokie Party with DP playing at most a spoiler role. 

In 北海道(Hokkaido) and 熊本(Kumamoto) the local branches of DP and JCP are forming alliances with is critical in  北海道(Hokkaido) where a DP-SDP-LP-JCP alliance could create an onslaught that could end up crushing LDP-KP.  KP now risks losing its one district seat in 北海道(Hokkaido).   A lot of the pro-DP projections seem to be based on the assumptions that despite hostility between the current Conservative leadership in DP and JCP at the local level the local chapters of DP and JCP can work out deals to put up a united front against LDP-KP in districts where it counts.

[jaichind]

Koike not to become head of new party planned by her ally
Saturday, September 23, 2017 01:05 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 23 Kyodo
Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike will not become the head of a new national party a lawmaker close to her is planning to establish ahead of a general election expected next month, the lawmaker said Saturday.
"It has been almost decided that (the post of a new party's chief) will be filled by a Diet member," the lower house lawmaker Masaru Wakasa said on a television program.
Wakasa is forming a new party with other lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, a former environment minister who recently left the main opposition Democratic Party, and is aiming to field more than 50 candidates once Prime Minister Shinzo Abe calls a general election next week as widely expected.
"I have never asked Koike" to become the head of the planned party, Wakasa added.
Still, there are expectations Wakasa's party will ask Koike to take up a senior post to capitalize on the Tokyo governor's popularity.
Koike's Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First party) scored a sweeping victory in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election in July, dethroning Abe's Liberal Democratic Party.
Wakasa and Hosono will likely settle on "Hope" party as a new name of their party, people familiar with the matter said, apparently seeking a close association with Koike's political school called School of Hope.
Wakasa also said his new party should be an alternative to Abe's LDP and the Democratic Party and suggested that it will not, in principle, seek to field unified candidates with other opposition parties in single-seat constituencies.

[jaichind]

Looks like the Koike Party will most likely be called "希望の党" or Hope Party.  Not clear what the official English name of the party will be yet.  Party will be officially kicked off 9/27, the same day Abe is likely to call new elections.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll on PR voting intentions

Looks like this new Hope party have some legs. I totally underestimated it.  

LDP    27.0
DP       8.0
HP       6.2  (Hope Party which is Koike Party)
KP       4.6
JCP      3.5
JRP      2.2
SDP     0.3
LP       0.1
PJK      0.0

Abe cabinet support

Support   45
Oppose    41.3

Are you for mid-term elections

For         23.7
Against   64.3

back in Nov 2014 right before the 2014 midterm election the Kyodo poll was

LDP      28.0
DPJ       10.3
KP          4.6
JCP         4.4
JIP         3.3
SDP       0.8
PFG        0.6
PLP        0.3

with result being

LDP      33.11
KP       13.71
DP       18.33
JCP      11.37
JIP       15.72
SDP       2.46
FPG       2.65
PLP       1.93

This poll seems to indicate

LDP will be around 31  KP at 13.5-14 as always and DP at around 15.5.  Which means that Koike Party mostly gained at the expense of of DP with JCP not doing that great.  If so then this will be a crushing landslide by LDP-KP.

If we do a comparison to the Kyodo first round poll in 2016 Upper House elections we had

LDP　28.9%　→　27.0%（-1.9%）
DP 　10.9%　→　  8.0%（-2.9%）
KP 　  6.3%　→　  4.6%（-1.7%）
JCP     5.3%　→　 3.5%（-1.8%）
JRP     2.4%　→　 2.2%（-0.2%）
SDP    1.6%　→　 0.3%（-1.3%）
LP       0.7%　→　 0.1%（-0.6%）
HP　    NA　   →　 6.2%

2016 ended up being

LDP     35.91
DP       20.98
KP       13.52
JCP      10.74
JRP       9.20
SDP      2.74
LP         1.91

I would just throw out any polling for KP.  No matter what If turnout is very very low then KP will be at 14.5 and if turnout is very very high KP will be at around 12.5.  Else it will be around 13.5 or so.

This comparison also shows HP taking somewhat more votes from DP than LDP but this comparison is more favorable to DP since in 2016 DP has a higher base.  There does not seem to be any sign of a JCP surge that many projections are talking about.

[jaichind]

Election for Osaka prefecture city 堺市(Sakai) mayor today.  It is LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama) vs JRP backed candidate 永藤 (Eiji) (with nominal support from KP).  For a while during the campaign it seems that Eiji might catch fire.  But in the end it seems like it will be a victory of the incumbent Takeyama. 

Polls just closed and exit polls indicate a Takeyama victory.

MBS exit poll


NHK exit poll on party support of voters
LDP   28
JRP    22
KP      6
JCP     6
DP      5
LP      2
SDP    1
Ind.  29

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor exit poll by party support



LDP (red), DP(blue), JCP(purple) voters clearly voted for Takeyama and JRP (yellow) clearly voted for Eiji.  Independents went for Eiji by a small margin which is keeping Eiji in the race.  What is a surprise is that KP (pink) is going for  Takeyama despite de facto KP support for JRP.

[jaichind]

I don't get why Koike's party would eat into DP's vote.

LDP KP and JCP are machine votes.  DP votes are "floating voters" that vote the latest fad.   JRP in 2012 dramatically cut into the DPJ vote which DP is slowly recovering from.  I guess it is totally possible HP will be the fad of 2017 and cut into DP's vote.

[jaichind]

Three possible scenarios I see in the snap election

Scenario 1 (Opposition unity failure including HP bombing out in Tokyo) (40%)
LDP-KP               340 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP     85  seats
JRP                     30 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 2 (Opposition unity success and wins marginal seats, HP bombs out) (25%)
LDP-KP               275 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   160  seats
JRP                     25 seats
HP                      15 seats

Scenario 3 (HP surge which includes sweeping Tokyo) (35%)
LDP-KP               280 seats
DP-SDP-LP-JCP   115  seats
JRP                     15 seats
HP                      65 seats

[jaichind]

NHK calls the 堺市(Sakai) mayor race for LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama).  No official results in yet but I guess they have access to their exit poll plus some unofficial initial counts at the counting centers. 

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 29% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     52.6%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        47.4%

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race 68% of the vote in

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.1%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.9%

[jaichind]

Back in 2013 for 堺市(Sakai) mayor race it was

LDP-DPJ-SDP-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     58.5%
JRP candidate                                                              41.5%

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll (has historic LDP lean)

Abe approval  50(+4)/42(-4)

Party support

LDP   44
HP      8
DP      8
JCP     5
KP      3
JRP     3
SDP    1
LP      1



Historically one gets LDP-KP PR vote share in Nikkei polls by adding LDP+KP which is 47 given the historic LDP house effect for Nikkei polls.  Still LDP+KP at 47 and HP and DP both around equal and without an alliance means a mega landslide for LDP+KP.

[jaichind]

Husband of PJK President 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko), 中山 成彬 (Nakayama Nariaki), seems to be set to join leave PJK and join HP.



PJK is an avowed enemy of Koike in Tokyo so this move seems bizarre.  This must be the first example of a husband leaving a party that his wife is the leader of.  The Husband-Wife pair are both former LDP MPs before they bolted to join various Hawk LDP rebel parties.

Edit:  It seems both couple are going to join HP.  This is the end of PJK.

[jaichind]

UPDATE1: Senior vice minister to join new opposition force
Sunday, September 24, 2017 06:24 AM
TOKYO, Sept. 24 Kyodo
(EDS: UPDATING WITH SMALL OPPOSITION PARTY LEADER'S PLAN TO JOIN NEW PARTY)
A senior vice minister of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, Mineyuki Fukuda, said Sunday he will leave the ruling bloc to join a new party being organized by those close to Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike.
Kyoko Nakayama, leader of the small opposition the Party for Japanese Kokoro also met with Koike the same day and expressed an intention to join the planned new party, a source close to the matter said.
Fukuda, a senior vice minister of the Cabinet Office, said at a press conference he will leave the Liberal Democratic Party to run in the general election expected for next month with the new party, which could realign the opposition camp amid the dominance of the LDP-led coalition.
"I'm not meaning to criticize the LDP," Fukuda said. "I'd like to create socially desirable human resources with Mr. Wakasa."
Masaru Wakasa, another LDP defector and close aide to Koike, said at the same news conference that more could leave the LDP to join the new party, which has also attracted opposition lawmakers including Goshi Hosono, who recently left the Democratic Party, the largest opposition struggling to regain public support under new leader Seiji Maehara.
Fukuda, a 53-year-old House of Representatives member in his third term, will convey his intention to the LDP on Monday.
First elected to the lower house in 2005, Fukuda was defeated in the 2014 general election in his constituency in Kanagawa Prefecture but clung to a Diet seat on proportional representation.
Also Sunday, Hosono said many voters believe it is risky to keep Abe in power while also considering the existing opposition parties as not becoming realistic alternatives.
"We'll present a choice in the middle of them," Hosono said on a TV program. He also said the new party will field candidates throughout the country.
"We're not intending to be a third pole. We're aiming to be the governing party," Hosono said.

[jaichind]

堺市(Sakai) mayor race final result

LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP backed incumbent 竹山 (Takeyama)     53.8%
JRP backed 永藤 (Eiji)                                                        46.2%

It is just amazing how JRP can come so close against an incumbent that was backed by LDP-DP-SDP-PJK-JCP with nominal KP support. Shows how strong JRP are at the local level in Osaka.

[jaichind]

So it seems that PJK will merge into HP when it is formed.  Not sure it is such a good idea for HP as it will give it a hard right image when its main chance should be to take votes from DP to grow.  Could be HP figure that turmoil in DP will produce a shift anyway from DP to HP so HP should focus on trying add some Hawk Right vote from LDP to add to the HP kitty. 

[jaichind]

Abe Calls Snap Election in Japan, Readies $18 Billion Package.  Will be for 10/22

[jaichind]

It seems that Koike will lead the new party Party of Hope or PH.   It seems she is going to try to gamble on a credible result in 2017 versus waiting for her political novelty value declines.  Of course she is taking a big risk.  If her party bombs then she could be saying goodbye to a relevant role in national politics for a long time if ever.

[jaichind]

It seems that fonder of the defunct YP, 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who was with JRP for a while seems will also join the new HP led by Koike.  So Koike will have 2 former party leaders under her wing, both 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) of YP  and 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) of PJK.

[jaichind]

It seems Abe's official reason for the election is also about the consumption tax.

Back in 2012 given the dire fiscal situation, the DPJ and LDP made a deal to have a planned increase in the consumption tax and in return DPJ agreed to early elections in 2012.  This broke the DPJ which splintered will the JRP and YP surge help LDP-KP to a landslide victory in 2012.

In 2014 Abe dissolved the lower house to delay the consumption tax increase and won in another landslide.  Right before the 2016  Upper House elections, Abe made the decision to delay the consumption tax again vowing that he will never delay it again.  This helped in part to a credible victory by the LDP in the 2016 Upper House elections.

Now, true to his word, Abe did not dissolve the Lower House to delay the consumption tax.  Abe wants the dissolve the Lower House on the platform of using the increased revenue from the consumption tax increase for spending for child care instead of lowering the deficit. 

All polls seems to show a large majority not approving Abe's decision to call for elections  but that was true in 2014 as well and did not stop Abe from winning in a landslide in 2014.

[jaichind]

Abe approve curve.  Well above water but not super great

[jaichind]

I assumed the faction that broke away from the Democrats to join Koike did so because their own party was too right wing. But now that PJK is joining, that doesn't make sense.

Unless maybe they are united by something else, anti-Americanism maybe? What dos Koike think about America? Do you think she will campaign for a withdrawal of troops?

Japanese politics does not work that way.  Ideology is nothing.  Leadership charisma and relationships is  everything.  All politics revolves around key leaders. 

[jaichind]

Could you provide us with a list of the parties running?

LDP - Center-right long-time ruling party.  Strong in local politics and in rural areas but with a significant presence across the board.  Clientelist party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion

DP - Center-left opposition party.  Very wide spectrum of opinion.

KP - Based on lay Buddhist order Soka Gakkai.  Appeals to lower middle class and working class.  Centrist and even center-left on most politics.  Ally of LDP or whoever is the most powerful power which is LDP most of the time.

JCP - Social Democratic party with Communist roots.  Pretty moderate these days.

SDP - Old Socialist Party and an old shell of itself.

LP - Ozawa party.  Pretty center-left these days despite Ozawa's Rightist roots in LDP and mostly reduced to a Iwate regional party.

JRP - Hashimoto Party. Mostly an Osaka regional party and pretty hard right.

HP - New Koike party.  Fairly far right on most policies.  Very strong in Tokyo.

HRP - Fringe Far Right party based on Happy Science which is pretty much a cult.

NPB - A protest party and adversities itself for those what want to vote for "None of the Above"

[jaichind]

Koike taking the risk to leading HP is a gamble for sure but is really bad news for DP.  All the media coverage will be about Abe vs Koike.  When people ask about DP it will be "D who?"  I think DP might be facing a situation where its vote share will fall to 15% or even lower.  I not even sure there is much room for a JCP surge.