French Legislative Election 2017

[jaichind]

Wow, so far only 3 winners on the first round.  That must be a record low since 1958.

[jaichind]

With 94% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         32.04%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.69%
FN                          13.67%
FI                           10.88%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.48%
EELV                        4.12%
PCF                          2.70%
DLF                          1.20%

LREM rising slowing, LR mostly stable, and FN still falling.

[jaichind]

FN now at 13.59%, officially below its 2012 vote share.

[jaichind]

Turnout seems like to be around 48.5% based on the places that reported which is around 96% of the vote.  Unless Paris has turnout much higher than this this will most likely be the turnout.

[jaichind]

With 98% of the vote counted it is

LREM-Modem         32.32%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.59%
FN                          13.37%
FI                           10.96%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.45%
EELV                        4.22%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.18%

LREM FI going up with FN going down as urban areas comes in.

[jaichind]

It seems like everything is counted.  Turnout 48.71%

LREM-Modem         32.32%
LR-UDI-Misc Right   21.57%
FN                          13.20%
FI                           11.02%
PS-PRG-Misc Left      9.51%
EELV                        4.30%
PCF                          2.72%
DLF                          1.17%

[jaichind]

Poking around France24's map, I have an inkling that MoDem candidates did significantly and noticeably worse than LREM candidates in their constituencies. I'm curious if this was caused mainly by center-left voters liking MoDem less than LREM due to its clearly center-right origins and sometimes choosing parties of the left where LREM wasn't on the ballot, by low-information voters who wanted to vote for Macron's candidates not connecting MoDem and LREM, looking for an LREM candidate and then scattering when they couldn't find one, or if MoDem generally was assigned tougher seats on the whole. Each explanation seems plausible.

I noticed the same.  I figured it has to do with MoDem being the junior party will get the tougher seats relative to LREM.  I am sure a bit of it is the LREM brand is better than MoDem.

[jaichind]

Did anyone find an example of a district where 3 candidates made it to the second round?  I could not find one.

[jaichind]

Does anyone has a list of how many second round districts are

LREM-MoDem vs LR-UDI-Misc Right
LREM-MoDem vs FI
LREM-MoDem vs FN
LREM-MoDem vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FI
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs FN
LR-UDI-Misc Right vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FN vs FI
FN vs PS-PRG-Misc Left
FI vs PS-PRG-Misc Left

[jaichind]

So there are apparently 4, not 3 candidates who won in first turn. Anyone knows who is the fourth one (the second one from LREM)?

I think Paris 1st

[jaichind]

A first runoff with one candidate, in the Aveyron 2nd the LR candidate drops out. The LREM candidate is the only one to stand Sunday.

"We have to do a lucid analysis, the constituency is historically left. In addition, it is impossible to close the gap. We must listen to the popular will and withdraw "

(results in the first round: LREM 38,72%, LR 20,18%)

Is there some sort of scandal related to this LR candidate.  Why drop out now ?  39 vs 20 is not that insurmountable ?

[jaichind]

PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

[jaichind]

PS led alliance actually made it into the second round in 88 seats.  This is a good deal more than I thought given their polling.  It seems the PS collapse is more selective and their vote held up more in their strongholds.

Unless a lot of those are dead-cat-bounce types of second, i.e. low-to-mid-teens vs REM in mid-30s...

Of course a lot of them will end up that way.  I think PS+ will be lucky to get 20 seats out of this entire election.  I am just surprised that even 88 of them made it into second place given LR-UDI, and FN out there and FI,  EELV splitting their vote in many districts.

[jaichind]

Who is the favourite between Valls and the FI candidate?

Ifop had it 50-50 a while ago. They predicted 30-24 for Valls in the first round, it became 25-18. third is LR with 12%, FN has 11%, DVD 8% and PCF 8%. I have no idea whether the right wing vote will help Valls or not, but I think he can squeeze it.

Would not this seat be lean Valls now?  It seems the non-LR Right vote here is almost 14%.  The center-right vote is quite split in the first round ergo FI got into the second round but most of that vote will go Valls I assume.   For the FI candidate it can count on PCF and perhaps some FN crossover votes and that is it. 

[jaichind]

Odoxa Poll has turnout at 47% for second round and LREM 430-460.  Wow.  Looks like everyone is converging on this massive number for LREM.  I thought there might be some tactical moves across the ideological  spectrum to block LREM from a super majority.  I guess not.

[jaichind]

Turnout until 12:00 was even lower than in the 1st round, with only 17.8% (1st round: 19.2%)

Probably not more than 44-45% will vote today ... a new record low.

Wow.  I was guessing that LREM will under-perform (perhaps not even reaching 400 seats) because both core Right, core Left, and core FN voters will come out and if necessary tactically vote to slow down LREM.  I guess not. 

[jaichind]

Will there be leaked exit polls at 7pm ?

[jaichind]

MACRON PARTY SET TO WIN 395-425 SEATS: ELABE POLL

[jaichind]

Bloomberg) -- Pollster Ipsos estimates outcome of second and final round of parliamentary election based on sampling of early votes.
•    NOTE: the lower chamber of Parliament has 577 seats
•    Republic on The Move (Macron) & Modem ally: 355 seats
•    The Republicans & allies: 125 seats
•    National Front: 8 seats
•    Socialists & allies: 49 seats
•    France Unbowed & Communists: 30 seats

[jaichind]

First results are in line with the Ipsos projection

If so it seems lower turnout was also LREM lowER turnout

[jaichind]

With 57 percent of votes counted, the Interior Ministry said Sunday that Macron's Republic on the Move! party had won 41 percent of the vote, followed by the conservative Republicans with 23 percent. The ministry said the far-right National Front was in third place with nearly 10 percent followed by the Socialists with 6.2 percent.

[jaichind]

Valls reelected

That is expected. He was up against FI in a seat with a lot of center right voters on the first round.

[jaichind]

So far the seat count for LREM-Modem does not look so hot.  If in urban areas FI PS vore holds up and overperforms then Prez Bloc might underperform Ipsos exit polls

[jaichind]

Prez Bloc has 47.7% of the vote so far.  Since it is in the second round 515 out of 573 seats that implies a vote share of around 53% in seats contested.  A very lukewarm result.  

[jaichind]

In the LaCroix map, LREM & MoDem only have 38 of 89 fully-counted seats so far ...

Min of Interior website much further ahead