2017 French Presidential Election - Predictions Thread

[jaichind]

Le Pen:             23
Fillon:               22.5
Macron:            22   
Mélenchon:       19.5 
Hamon:             7
Dupont-Aigner:  2.5 
Others:              3.5

[jaichind]

Taiwan Province ROC based election prediction blogger


 
Has Len Pen over-polling and Hamon and to some extent Fillon under-polling

Macron 23.3%
Le Pen 21.3%
Fillon 20.4%
Melenchon 18.4%
Hamon 9.7%

[jaichind]

25.5% Le Pen
24.0% Macron
22.5% Fillon
18.0% Melenchon
8.0% Hamon

That leaves everyone else, including Dupont-Aignan, at 2% in total.  As much as I think there will be significant tactical voting with the "other" vote will under-perform polling I doubt the total other vote gets down to 2%. 

[jaichind]

Out of the 40 predictions posted so far

35 predicted Le Pen to make it into the second round
27 predicted Marcon
16 predicted Fillon
2 predicted Melenchon

It seems on atlas so far Fillon's chances are brighter than most polls suggests.

[jaichind]

Out of the 57 predictions posted so far

51 predicted Le Pen to make it into the second round
37 predicted Marcon
20 predicted Fillon
 6 predicted Melenchon