2017 French Presidential Election

[jaichind]

There seems to be a fair level of stability in the polls this last month.  If you look at OpinionWay polls over the last month  which pretty much polls every week day and look at the results grouped by Right (Le Pen+Fillon), Center (Marcon) and Left (Hamon+Melenchon) and throw out the very best day and very worse day for each bloc  we get

Right (ranges from 44-47)
Center (ranges from 24-25)
Left (ranges from 24-26)

If we do the same for Ifop polls over the last month we get

Right (ranges from 43-46)
Center (ranges from 25-26)
Left (ranges from 23-26)

Seems overall Ifop more Marcon friendly than OpinionWay.  Since it is likely that Marcon voters will likely to be less committed perhaps OpinionWay has a stronger likely voter filter ?

[jaichind]

Fillon: 59%
Dupont-Aignan: 49%
Le Pen: 45%
Macron: 40%
Cheminade: 35%
Poutou: 27%
Hamon: 26%
Melenchon: 24%
Arthaud: 23%

[jaichind]

Latest Odoxa poll

Macron      23.5 (-2.5)
Le Pen       23.0 (-2.0)
Fillon         18.0 (+1.5)
Melenchon 18.0 (+2.0)
Hamon        9.0 (+1.0)

Melenchon peaking at the right time.  If this poll is true and Hamon falls another point of two then most of his support might just tactically vote Melenchon

[jaichind]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round.

[jaichind]

Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls".

The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia.

Well, Fillon I think made a good analogy for the benefit himself.    Alesia was very close and the Romans were about to fall apart about when the Romans played their last card: have the Roman cavalry charge the Gaul position where the Gauls made a breach in the Roman lines .  If the Gauls just held on and not break and run they would have won.  That is the message I guess Fillon has for his supporters: hold on, do not lose hope and vote Fillon on the first round.

[jaichind]

A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead

[jaichind]

Its interesting how we have all been told repeatedly that LePen's vote is "rock solid" and that her voters are very unlikely to change their minds...and yet she has steadily lost ground over the last few weeks from high 20s to low 20s...i guess her vote isn't so solid after all!  

Le Pen's vote IS solid. She's polling a lower *share* of the vote b/c a few weeks ago left-wing voters were saying they weren't going to turnout and now more are saying they will.

Just look at Ifop tracking. At the end of March 62% of respondents said they intend to vote, now 70% intend to.

Also I am sure, without any real proof, that Le Pen will beat her polling.  I feel this way because I am think that Dupont-Aignan will not win 3.5%-4% as indicated by his polling.  Many of his voters will go to Le Pen and some to Fillon.

[jaichind]

OpinionWay

Marcon       23
Le Pen       22
Fillon         20 (-1)
Melenchon 19 (+1)
Hamon        8

Hamon vote holding up pretty well.  I thought he will be down to 5% by now. 

[jaichind]

Message to people with theories about "shy voters"... virtually all of the polls in France were conducted online. While it's possible that due to "social desirably bias" could make people shy about telling a live interviewer that they are voting LePen or Fillon, but there is no reason for anyone to be shy or self-conscious about their vote when completing an online survey with no human interaction

The problem is less "shy voters" and more the potential that pollsters have got their samples wrong. Online panels in particular tend to be made up of people who are more interested in politics to begin with, and leave out the less interested/more abstentionist types; many of these will be less educated or "ouvriers", who are both strong Le Pen demographics.

Someone posted earlier that French pollster sample by quota, which might mitigate this somewhat, who knows?

Agreed. But would not the fact that FN was under-polled in 2012 had pollsters adjust their weights ?  After 2002 when FN was underestimated it seems pollsters adjusted their weights and as a result in 2007 FN over-polled so another adjustment was made and as a result FN was under-polled in 2012.  Would not 2017 then perhaps, using this pattern, have FN over-polled.  I tend to think that the Le Pen surge since 2012 has changed the structure of who votes FN so there is a chance of under-poll but overreaction to FN under-polling in 2012 most likely washed this out to where Le Pen will most likely perform where she is polling right now.  I suspect it is Fillon that is under-polling.

[jaichind]

I do not know anything about this Filteris pollster



But they have it at

FIllon 22.09%
Le Pen 21.75%
Melenchon 21.11%
Macron 19.95%
Hamon 7.04%

[jaichind]

That is "buzz and perceptions", not vote share.

Thanks for clarifying. 

[jaichind]

If the first estimate coming out at 8PM Paris time excludes urban centers then if that shows Macron doing well then would not that mean Macron doing well ?  If it shows Macron not doing well then it does not mean much yet ?